Photo: Orlando Jorge Ramirez, USA Today Sports
The 2022 NFL free-agent class is loaded with big names at the skill positions. Here is a look at the Tier 1 players potentially on the move and the dynasty impact of their free-agent status:
*aPPG is a proprietary measure of PPR PPG with some adjustment for missed games*
QUARTERBACKS
Frankly, the quarterback free-agent market is the weak spot of the skill position class. The main focus will be on potential trade candidates like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson as positional landscape-changing players for their respective franchises. The second most interesting aspect of the position is the myriad of contract situations in the window to pay their quarterback franchise-cornerstone money. Those include:
Of the actual free-agent quarterbacks, Jameis Winston is the biggest name. While some view Winston's time in New Orleans, he led the NFL in touchdown rate before his season-ending injury and also posted a career-low interception rate of his qualifying seasons. In short, Winston had his best season of his career and this was without Michael Thomas, a lagging tight end position, TreQuan Smith injured, and a myriad of limitations.
RUNNING BACKS
- Leonard Fournette
- Melvin Gordon
- James Conner
- Ronald Jones II
- Cordarrelle Patterson (wildcard)
Leonard Fournette is the crown jewel of the class considering he has revived his career with a strong string of production in Tampa Bay after a surprising release by Jacksonville. Fournette is still in his prime window of production with a prototypical profile for a workhorse role. The variable is what the NFL thinks of Fournette as a whole as Fournette was not available during the traditional free-agent period when Jacksonville released him, limiting his potential suitors.
Melvin Gordon is still showing well in 2021 despite creeping outside of a running back's typical prime window of production. Javonte Williams is primed to take over for Denver in 2022 (at the latest) and Gordon is highly likely to hit the open market. Gordon is a quality bet to find an RB1 or 1A role in 2022. Gordon's dynasty value is largely shot due to being 29.7 years old for kickoff next year but is an ideal veteran bridge player in the Round 2-ish rookie pick valuation.
James Conner was largely forgotten considering how his Pittsburgh stint ended in 2020 and then landing on an Arizona depth chart behind Chase Edmonds. However, Conner has proven valuable in his secondary role and filled in with strong production in Edmonds' absence due to injury. Conner's movement has shown improvement as well. Conner has a wide range of outcomes for his landing spot from a 1A option to injury-away status. Still only 27 years old next season, Conner can be a Latavius Murray-type having an extended 'second career' in dynasty terms as an injury-away option.
Ronald Jones II has been largely blocked in Tampa Bay and he enters his free-agent offseason on the young side, as he entered the NFL at barely 21 years old. Jones has the best chance of the position to surprise with a quality contract covering 2-3 seasons of duration. Ideally, stash Jones for a later 3rd or 4th equivalent pick valuation, but even a later 2nd is palatable if getting a lower-level second piece in return.
Cordarrelle Patterson is the wildcard of the position and possibly the entire skill position free-agent class. Patterson is north of 30 years old and consistently playing on offense in 2021 for the first time since his early years in Minnesota (as a traditional wide receiver). Patterson's role in his 2021 career year is best described as an offensive weapon, blending between wide receiver snaps and a traditional running back. Was Atlanta the perfect storm for Patterson? Will any other team see him in the same light for 2022?
WIDE RECEIVERS
- Davante Adams
- Allen Robinson
- Chris Godwin
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Mike Williams
- Will Fuller
- Antonio Brown
Many of these names are the same as last year's edition with Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Will Fuller playing under one-year deals for 2021. Davante Adams is the crown jewel of the class. Will he follow Aaron Rodgers' destination? Adams is still worth the equivalent of multiple 1sts in the marketplace.
#FreeAllenRobinson has been a cry from the dynasty community for his entire career, paired with generally shoddy quarterback play. Despite the lack of a quality signal-caller, Robinson has multiple WR1 seasons to his credit. Will 2022 be the situation change to spark his best season yet?
Chris Godwin is among the litany of Tampa Bay free agents. They were able to keep the band together in 2021, but will they be as fortunate in 2022? Godwin has the best chance for a long-term and highly lucrative deal considering his mid-20s age and profile of production.
JuJu Smith-Schuster passed on playing in Kansas City last offseason, returning to Pittsburgh with a quickly eroding situation and Ben Roethlisberger. Smith-Schuster also enters free agency off an injury and multiple bland seasons after an early-career run of strong production.
Mike Williams is having his best overall season in 2021, perfect timing with free agency up next. The Chargers is a close to optimal situation for Williams with attachment to Justin Herbert and having Keenan Allen operate in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field (plus a lack of WR3 presence).
Will Fuller has largely been injured during his NFL career, but his talent and production when healthy has been underrated. A one-year contract is a near certainty for Fuller, like he signed in Miami for 2021, with his NFL value similar to his dynasty value - dependent on how many games he plays. Fuller's market value has slumped all the way to a later 2nd or even 3rd round pick.
Antonio Brown has been a quality producer in 2021 on a per-game basis, a reminder he had an extended run as one of the best (if not the best) NFL wide receivers, period. While firmly in his 30s, Brown offers value to any contending team. The pairing with Tom Brady was ideal and a bulk of the NFL outside of Brady's team may not be as receptive to adding Brown in the offseason if Tampa Bay is no longer an option.
TIGHT ENDS
The tight end class is as loaded as wide receiver with a host of starting-caliber options. The 2017 rookie class has three Round 1 pedigree options entering the market at the same time in Engram, Njoku, and Howard. All three have flashed impact potential for cross-sections of their careers, but inconsistency clouds their future. Howard is the murkiest of the three considering his slow return from injury in 2021 as well as failing to rise at all even with Rob Gronkowski out for a significant chunk of the season.
Zach Ertz went from record-setting producer to out of Philadelphia quickly, but landed on his feet in Arizona, plus has looked far healthier in 2021 than his injury-impacted 2020.
Dalton Schultz ran with the lead job following a pair of Blake Jarwin injuries in Dallas, looking like the superior player as well when they were on the field together over the past two seasons.
Mike Gesicki offers an athleticism level few in the NFL can match. He has oscillated in impact significant during his Miami career opening, however, but should be treated kindly in free agency if Miami passes on retaining him.
Rob Gronkowski is the wildcard of the position with another significant missed stint of 2021 and a threat to retire (again) any offseason. If not playing with Tom Brady was the 2022 reality, Gronkowski might sign with retirement over another team.
POTENTIAL INCUMBENT BENEFACTORS
- Javonte Williams - Already strongly valued in dynasty, Williams will be a low-hanging fruit breakout candidate in 2022 if Melvin Gordon is gone.
- KeShawn Vaughn - The rest of the Tampa Bay depth chart is a free agent in 2022. Day 2 pedigree is a plus for Vaughn to (finally) rise up in opportunity.
- Eno Benjamin - James Conner and Chase Edmonds are both slated free agents with Benjamin, like KeShawn Vaughn, the lone incumbent of note under contract to start the offseason.
- Tyler Johnson - Elite metric prospect from Day 2, flashed in minimal rookie playing time to date.
- Josh Palmer - Day 2 pedigree and could slide into the WR2 role if Mike Williams is gone.
- Amari Rodgers - Slow rookie season start, but Day 2 pedigree and Davante Adams' departure would create a chasm of available targets and wide-open depth chart.
- Harrison Bryant - David Njoku leaving and Austin Hooper underwhelming would open the door for the former Mackey Award winner to continue his upward trajectory for opportunities.
- Hunter Long - Day 2 pedigree and would be a riser candidate in Miami without Mike Gesicki.
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