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- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs - Over/Under 54
- Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks - Over/Under 50.5
Favorite Additional Spots
- 49ers on the road against the Falcons - Implied Team Total 25
- Buccaneers on the road against the Steelers - Implied Team Total 25.75
- Packers at home vs. the Jets - Implied Team Total 26.5
- Ravens on the road against the Giants - Implied Team Total 25.25
- Vikings on the road against the Dolphins - Implied Team Total 24.5
- Rams at home vs. the Panthers - Implied Team Total 26
- Patriots on the road against the Browns - Implied Team Total 20.5
|1||Josh Allen||at Chiefs||$8,200|
|2||Patrick Mahomes II||vs. Bills||$8,000|
|3||Tom Brady||at Steelers||$6,300|
The Bills at Chiefs game is the highlight of Week 6, so the masses will gravitate to it. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II can certainly be rostered in tournaments but just understand the ownership percentages are going to be very high. We don't have to worry about that in cash though. Allen ranks seventh in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) and leads a Bills offense that ranks second in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), fourth in Success Rate, first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and first in Early Down Pass Frequency Rate (EDPF). He has a solid matchup against a Chiefs defense that ranks 20th in Success Rate in the game with the highest Over/Under (54) of the week.
Patrick Mahomes II ranks ninth in CPOE and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks first in EPA/Play, second in Success Rate, first in PROE, and second in EDPF. The matchup isn't great as the Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but this is Mahomes we're talking about, and he's playing at home in the game with the highest Over/Under (54) of the week.
Tom Brady is a more affordable cash option at $6,300, and the Buccaneers are getting back to their passing ways with their wide receivers healthier. Tampa Bay's offense ranks fourth in PROE and sixth in EDPF. And the matchup is decent against a struggling Steelers defense missing T.J. Watt that ranks 19th in EPA/Play Allowed and 14th in Success Rate. And it gets even better for this week as Minkah Fitzpatrick, Cameron Sutton, Ahkello Witherspoon, Levi Wallace, and T.J. Watt all won't play. That means the Steelers will be missing their best pass rusher and four players of their starting secondary.
|1||Jeff Wilson||at Falcons||$6,200|
|2||Nick Chubb||vs. Patriots||$8,200|
|3||Leonard Fournette||at Steelers||$7,400|
|4||Saquon Barkley||vs. Ravens||$7,700|
|5||Alvin Kamara||vs. Bengals||$6,700|
|6||Dalvin Cook||at Dolphins||$7,500|
|7||Darrell Henderson||vs. Panthers||$5,100|
Jeff Wilson is affordably priced for a player who has averaged 18 opportunities per game over his past four contests. And the matchup is awesome here. The 49ers are 5.5-point favorites despite playing on the road and the Falcons defense ranks 30th in EPA/Play Allowed, 32nd in Rush EPA/Play Allowed, and 32nd in Success Rate.
Nick Chubb leads the NFL in rushing yards (593) and rushing touchdowns (7) and the Browns are 2.5-point home favorites against a Patriots defense that ranks 28th in Rush EPA/Play Allowed and 21st in Success Rate.
The Buccaneers are 8.5-point favorites despite playing on the road against the Steelers. That helps Leonard Fournette as does Tampa Bay's increased pass heaviness since Fournette is significantly involved in the passing game. Fournette ranks ninth in opportunities per game (20.8) and has a favorable matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 27th in Rush EPA/Play Allowed.
Saquon Barkley is the Giants offense. He ranks third in opportunities per game (24), and although the Giants are getting 5.5 points at home, the matchup is favorable for Barkley on the ground against a Ravens defense that ranks 22nd in Rush EPA/Play Allowed.
Alvin Kamara returned to the lineup last week and received 29 opportunities and turned them into 194 total yards, looking great in the process. He ranks eight in opportunities per game (21.3) and the Saints get to play at home this week, which will help since the matchup is a tough one for Kamara against a surprisingly stingy Bengals defense to begin the year.
The Vikings are three-point favorites despite playing on the road in Miami, largely due to the Dolphins being expected to start third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. This should help Dalvin Cook play in a favorable game script for his fantasy success. Cook ranks 12th in opportunities per game (19.2), and while the Dolphins rank first in Rush EPA/Play Allowed, they also rank 21st in EPA/Play Allowed overall and 27th in Success Rate. So there should still be some favorable looks for Cook to attack both as a rusher and a receiver.
Cam Akers has been ruled out due to personal reasons which means we can now roster workhorse Darrell Henderson at only $5,100. The Rams offensive line is atrocious, and the Panthers defense ranks sixth best in Rush EPA/Play Allowed. But the Rams are at home and favored by ten points.
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