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- Houston Texans at Las Vegas Raiders - Over/Under 45
- Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers - Over/Under 48.5
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers - Over/Under 50
- Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys - Over/Under 48.5
- Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - Over/Under 42
Favorite Additional Spots
- Buccaneers on the road against the Panthers - Implied Team Total 26
- Ravens at home vs. the Browns - Implied Team Total 26
- Bengals at home vs. the Falcons - Implied Team Total 26.75
- Packers on the road against the Commanders - Implied Team Total 23
- Jaguars at home vs. the Giants - Implied Team Total 23
|1||Lamar Jackson||vs. Browns||$8,000|
|2||Patrick Mahomes II||at 49ers||$7,800|
|3||Joe Burrow||vs. Falcons||$6,900|
Lamar Jackson leads a Ravens offense that ranks fourth in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), tenth in Success Rate, and eighth in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). The dual-threat star gets to play at home against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Browns rank 31st in Overall EPA/Play Allowed, 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 17th in Success Rate.
Patrick Mahomes II leads a Chiefs offense that ranks first in EPA/Play, second in Success Rate, first in PROE, and first in Early Down Pass Frequency Rate (EDPF). This will be an interesting matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks first in Overall EPA/Play Allowed, first in Dropback EPA Allowed, and first in Success Rate. The advantage goes to Mahomes here but it does make him a cash play because the matchup lowers his ceiling.
The Bengals PROE was 2% in Weeks 1-4 but increased dramatically to 10% in Weeks 5-6. Cincinnati is in a groove so it would make no sense to shift back to more of a run approach at home against a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in Overall EPA/Play Allowed, 18th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and dead last in Success Rate. Burrow is an awesome play at his $6,900 price tag.
|1||Ken Walker||at Chargers||$5,800|
|2||Josh Jacobs||vs. Texans||$6,500|
|3||Austin Ekeler||vs. Seahawks||$8,300|
|4||Saquon Barkley||at Jaguars||$7,900|
Ken Walker turned 24 opportunities into 110 total yards and a touchdown last week in his first game without sharing time with Rashaad Penny. Those 24 chances would rank third in the entire league currently in opportunities per game. Walker now gets to attack a Chargers defense that ranks 21st in EPA/Play Allowed and 28th in Rush EPA Allowed. The bottom line is Walker should cost at least $1,000 more than he does.
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