Week 6 is complete, and dynasty movement continues. Injuries have created new opportunities or raised long-term questions about players. Elsewhere young players are solidifying their opportunity for playing time and fantasy production. Weekly the Footballguys staff will share their thoughts on the dynasty ranking movement and answer a critical question you may face.
Question: How do you see current NFL trends changing the dynasty landscape in the next five years?
Christian Williams
The NFL trend that stands out as the most impactful to the dynasty landscape in the next five years is running back usage. When the NFL announced the 17th game, most assumed that more teams would operate committees in an attempt to save their running backs. That doesn't seem to be the case through the first two seasons of seventeen games. Through six weeks, there have been 34 separate instances of running backs carrying the ball 20 or more times. Through six weeks in 2021, that number was 38. Comparatively, in 2018, there were 30 instances of 20-or-more carry running backs in the first six weeks. Why? NFL defenses have adjusted to the explosive passing attacks by deploying Cover 2 concepts. Two safeties playing overtop create light boxes, allowing offenses to run the football more efficiently. With an influx of running back talent hitting the dynasty landscape with the 2023 class and the pendulum not fully swung in the rushing direction, running backs may again dominate the dynasty landscape in the next five years.
Nick Whalen
The biggest trend in the NFL is defenses playing with two high safeties. This makes quarterbacks and offenses be patient to take the underneath throws. Offensive lines are struggling with pass protection with defensive linemen getting more athletic and skilled. These two combined things have made mobile quarterbacks even more essential to buy time to throw and avoid pass rushers. Also, two high safety defenses have one less defender in the box to stop the run. Mobile quarterbacks with designed run plays allow for the offense to have one more blocker against these lighter defensive fronts. This is the counter-move offenses are using this year and will need to continue if they want to succeed. The top eight quarterbacks in fantasy this year are all somewhat mobile, so it's paying off for your teams as well.
Kevin Coleman
We have seen a trend in teams using a running-back-by-committee approach to shape their rosters. In the next two draft cycles, there will be an influx of talent at the running back position, especially with the 2023 draft class. Twelve to fifteen running backs in the class could make a fantasy impact moving forward. Teams have also shown they are hesitant to sign a running back to a big second-year deal, forcing many to take a Moneyball-like approach to their backfield. With the influx of new schemes and offenses in the league, there will be more reliance on the receiver position in fantasy, making the hotly debated zero-running back strategy more mainstream.
Jordan McNamara
One thing we need to monitor is the quarterback position. The finances of the NFL make drafting a rookie quarterback a huge advantage compared to paying a non-elite retread quarterback for teams that do not have the position solved. We have seen several failures of teams attempting the retread route with expensive contracts, including Carson Wentz (Indianapolis and Washington), Baker Mayfield (Carolina), Sam Darnold (Carolina), and Mitchell Trubisky (Pittsburgh) along with others who have had varying levels of success like Jameis Winston (New Orleans), Marcus Mariota (Atlanta), and Matt Ryan (Indianapolis). The only current success stories of quarterbacks turning their career around on another stop is Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith, and both did so on cheap contracts. The financial advantages of the young quarterbacks give teams an incentive to move away from the middle and lower class of the quarterback position in favor of rookie contracts. This could have a major impact on players like Jared Goff, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jalen Hurts if their current teams are not committed to them for the long term.
Jeff Bell
For years the league has trended towards smaller, quicker wide receivers who can attack vertically and create schemed touches in spread fields. Defenses countered with base nickel defenses leading into the current trend of two high. Nick touched on it, but the current trend of two high safeties has yet to be fully addressed by NFL teams. Christian and Kevin make excellent points about running back usage, but the next advent is teams continuing to find ways to play “spread heavy.” Given the influx of athletic quarterbacks, the item to monitor will be if college spread options continue to gain popularity.
One key piece the NFL lacks is the wide back, a college concept that has existed for years, but the NFL only started seeing with Deebo Samuel in 2021. These players may be the key to unlocking the two high safeties, with receivers who can function outside but also shift inside to create heavy sets. The companion piece is heavier running backs who can serve as dive backs in these option offenses. If the league makes this adjustment, it dramatically impacts usage. However, not in terms of rotating backs with different skill sets into a traditional running back role, but in the types of looks, archetype backs get. Elijah Mitchell saw just over two targets per game in this type of role; if teams adjust to this offensive approach, PPR scoring systems could see a significant separation of running back scoring into a “haves or have not” structure. Miles Sanders is an example of the shift in usage with an RPO-heavy rushing quarterback, he is off to a career-best start rushing, but his targets have been halved since his rookie year. With his rookie receiving production, he moves from RB14 to RB10 per game. If that gap spreads across the league, the remaining three down backs will grow even further in value.
Quarterbacks
Nick Whalen
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay - He's playing some of the worst football of his career this season. He's producing the second worst touchdown percentage and yards per attempt since he's become a starting quarterback. Rodgers seems likely to retire after this season unless the Packers have a major turnaround, which means he should be moving down your dynasty ranks immediately.
Kevin Coleman
Russell Wilson, Denver - Wilson’s free fall in dynasty has continued after a lackluster performance against the Los Angeles Chargers this last weekend. Wilson has been unstartable in 1QB leagues, and plenty of hesitant managers in superflex leagues have already started looking for better options. While there are reports he is dealing with an injury Wilson has not looked good this season, and the only thing allowing him to keep any value in dynasty is the off-season contract he signed with the team. If you have him rostered, you have to hope he can be at least a low-end QB2 this season or the capital you put into acquiring him will be a loss. As of now, he’s slowly moving out of the top 15 in dynasty ranks.
Jordan McNamara
Russell Wilson, Denver - Russell Wilson is getting pounded by the media. He has been a disappointment in Denver but the market was overreacted. Wilson has fallen below his normal efficiency but has also been hurt by the worst touchdown rate of his career. Wilson is a top 10% scorer in points per dropback, and there is a great opportunity to buy his profile at a deep discount that can be explained by a lot of variance.
Jeff Bell
Bailey Zappe, New England - After previously ranking Zappe 45, in the range of players who have received starting opportunities and failed, his performance has forced a re-evaluation. Zappe showed immediate comfort, reaching his first career 300-yard game in his second start, faster than Mac Jones, Tom Brady, or Drew Bledsoe. He plays with a calm efficiency that points to reps he accrued in a pass-heavy college system at Western Kentucky, where he set the single-season NCAA passing yardage record with 5,967 yards in 2021. With Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett starting across the league, quarterbacks from the Patriots system have shown value. Young players who flash can find themselves in starting situations in a league, with players like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan nearing their twilight.
Christian Williams
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay - Through six weeks, Tom Brady is in the Top 12. But his Week 6 performance was similar to the first two weeks, where he ranked QB28 after games against Dallas and New Orleans. The Buccaneers have an inconsistent offensive line, and their offense, as a whole, has suffered. While Brady is already ranked reasonably low in dynasty rankings, his one-year outlook and disappointing play make him an asset only to definite championship-bound teams as a No. 3 quarterback. The dynasty value associated with that should rank outside of the Top 24.
Running Backs
Kevin Coleman
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville - Etienne started slow, and many were worried that James Robinson’s return would completely bottom out his value, but that hasn’t been the case. He led the Jaguars on Sunday with a team-high eighty-six yards on ten carries and had two receptions for twenty-two yards. He has two straight games of recording at least 100 yards from scrimmage and has shown to be the more effective back between the two. He hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, but his current usage and trends seem to be pointing him in the right direction this year. If he can prove to be a solid RB2 option moving forward, he’ll need to climb back up your dynasty ranks.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland - Until the Browns get back quarterback Deshaun Watson, Hunt is a risky play week-to-week. While he has shown flashes of being a solid RB2, the Browns' reliance on Nick Chubb has eaten into his workload. Normally we could expect game scripts to help Hunt in the passing game, but last weekend he only earned one target in a 38-15 loss to the Patriots. With his contract situation up in the air and usage down, Hunt might be one of those backs you look to ship off after a game where he shows a little increased value. With the 2023 class of running backs coming, Hunt could be an asset that loses even more value in the offseason.
Jordan McNamara
Antonio Gibson, Washington - The smoke from training camp was true. All the Brian Robinson buzz that appeared to put Antonio Gibson on a path to being a backup was put on hold when Robinson suffered multiple gunshot wounds in August. Now, in his first game back, Robinson took over 75% of the carries in the backfield. This is a really bad sign for Gibson and confirmation of a lot of negative buzz around him throughout the offseason.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams - Cam Akers suffered a torn Achilles last summer but was able to miraculously rehab and return for the Rams' playoff run. Now, less than a year later, the Rams are prepared to move Akers in a trade after making him inactive in week six. This is a major step back for a player who had high hopes entering the year.
Jeff Bell
Ken Walker, Seattle - Sometimes you have to take the layup. Walker found himself the sole running back in the Seahawks' stable after the injury to Rashaad Penny, and he responded well, totaling 97 yards in Week 6 against the Cardinals. Walker was previously placed behind a group of long-time elite backs closing out their career in ranks, but now with a full-time starting role and immediate success, his age and ability vaunt him above a large tier. A player to target if your league has not caught up to this value realization.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England - It is a small sample size, but Stevenson looks to have broken Bill Belichick's long-time reliance on rotating situation-specific running backs. Stevenson was dominant in Week 6 with 76 yards and two touchdowns, a week after posting 161 yards against the Lions in Week 5. This offense relies heavily on rushing, and Stevenson has a chance to lead the league in attempts if this will be the type of usage he sees moving forward. Damien Harris will return at some point, which could ultimately create a buying window, but now that this genie is out of the bottle, it is unlikely Belichick will put it back in. I was wrong in previously ranking him at RB26.
Melvin Gordon, Denver - What is up with Gordon? With Javonte Williams suffering a season-ending injury, it looked like Gordon would have his chance to run as the top back. One week later, Latavius Murray walks out of Week 6 against the Chargers as the Broncos' clear lead back. Gordon pulled the 2022 move of liking tweets asking for him to be traded, but at age 29, it is fair to ask what is still in the tank. It is a significant fall from the initial post-injury situation to where we sit today.
Christian Williams
Breece Hall, New York Jets - While dynasty managers could have predicted this outcome, and Breece Hall's dynasty ranking already sat inside the Top 5, his 47.8 fantasy points over the last two weeks rank second only to Leonard Fournette. He is averaging 19 carries and two receptions per game in that span, but the Jets have had favorable game scripts, pushing the receptions total down from his season average of three. The Jets are giving Hall bellcow volume, and considering he is a minimum of two years younger than the four players ranked ahead of him, he has a case to be the No. 1 running back in dynasty rankings.
Ken Walker, Seattle Seahawks - Breece Hall has garnered the most buzz in 2022 (and rightfully so), but Ken Walker's emergence was swift and definitive. Rashaad Penny's unfortunate injury opened the door for Walker, but his 33.8 fantasy points since Week 5 are good for RB10 over that span. Walker's running style fits the Seahawks' scheme admirably, and their commitment to the run hasn't faltered despite Geno Smith's arrival. Walker won't command a high volume of targets, but the turnover of age-cliff running backs to the next wave should allow for Walker to land inside the Top 12 in rankings.
Nick Whalen
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville - After a slow start, Etienne has out-snapped James Robinson in each of the last three games. Etienne has rewarded the Jaguars with two straight games of 100+ total yards. Averaging 6.67 yards per touch through six games, which puts him third all-time among first-round-pick RBs(per @dalton_kates on Twitter). Things are pointing up for Etienne and so should his dynasty ranking.
David Montgomery, Chicago - Another year of watching David Montgomery and another year of me not liking what I see. Khalil Herbert is the best runner in Chicago, and this is backed up by PFF grades to rushing yards over expectation. He's a free agent after the season with no ties to the current regime, which means he won't be returning. It also should lean more toward Herbert down the stretch. Trestan Ebner is the best pass-catching running back on the team, and he should see more action as well. Fewer touches and not returning to Chicago should reduce his dynasty ranking.
Wide Receivers
Jordan McNamara
Elijah Moore, New York Jets - Elijah Moore had all the markings of a potential breakout in 2022 but has been a major disappointment. Moore has still been a full participant in the offense in terms of snaps and routes, but he is not drawing targets. Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson have been the preferred options in the passing game, which leaves Moore in dynasty uncertainty.
Drake London, Atlanta - Drake London and Chris Olave have been the two best rookie wide receivers through six weeks. London has proven that he is a highly efficient player capable of drawing targets on a high rate of targets. London had this profile in college and confirmed it translates to the NFL. The offense has been a run-centric approach, which is keeping his value lower than he would be in a pass-happy offense, which creates a great buying opportunity.
Jeff Bell
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville - Kirk is widely blamed for breaking the wide receiver market inflation of the 2022 offseason. And through the first three weeks, he lived up to the contract, ranking PPR WR6 at 20.9 points per game. Then the bottom fell out with just 7.1 points per game at a WR61 placement. I initially reacted to the first move, bringing him up to WR23, but given he will be 26 soon, at that production level, he needs to move back down.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo - Shakir previously sat in the "will he or won't he" zone at WR71. But injuries to Isaiah McKenzie and Jamison Crowder forced him into a significant role in Week 5 against Pittsburgh, and he responded with 75 yards and a touchdown. The team likes McKenzie and will likely stay ahead of Shakir, but the rookie clearly showed he is a factor and belongs on an NFL field. With that type of performance comes validation and realization of value. A rookie attached to Josh Allen for at least the next four years has to move way up the rankings. If he stays behind McKenzie, he could be an under-the-radar grab around the deadline. But moving forward, Shakir should secure a significant role in a valuable offense.
Christian Williams
Elijah Moore, New York Jets - With Joe Flacco, Garrett Wilson was the guy. With Zach Wilson, no one is the guy. Elijah Moore logged a game without a single target in Week 6, and that outcome is worth concern for dynasty managers. Moore is the WR75 through six weeks of the 2022 season, and his lack of production with Zach Wilson under center doesn't look flukey. His five targets per game rank tied with the likes of Marvin Jones Jr and behind teammates Breece Hall and Tyler Conklin. Moore is skilled and has created separation throughout the season, but he doesn't seem to be a focal point of this Jets attack. His dynasty rankings should reflect that.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco - Over the last two weeks, Brandon Aiyuk ranks inside the top-ten wide receivers in fantasy points per game. His two touchdowns rank second behind only Gabriel Davis, and his eleven receptions rank inside the Top 12. Signs of a breakout year were there, with Aiyuk displaying incredible route-running prowess in 2021. He is doing this on limited targets, as well. While the 49ers may never become a pass-heavy attack, Aiyuk has shown he can become a Top 24 option within that offense. He should still be ranked just outside that range due to a smaller sample size of success, but his stock is rising.
Nick Whalen
Terry McLaurin, Washington - A sleeper of mine coming into the NFL Draft, and he's had a very good career that was rewarded with a contract extension in the offseason. However, McLaurin has competition at wide receiver, with Curtis Samuel having a bounce-back season and rookie Jahan Dotson looking very good as well. Targets are crowded in Washington, and he's not taking a step up in his production. He should be moving down a few spots in dynasty.
Skyy Moore, Kansas City - The shine of the off-season hype has worn off of Skyy Moore, resulting in his ranking dropping. However, he's seen a large increase in snap percentage the past three games, resulting in 10 targets. Patrick Mahomes II can lift up players to fantasy greatness, he needs a better top wide receiver target, and Moore has the potential to deliver. Moore should get a slight bump with his increased play but has the potential for so much Moore.
Kevin Coleman
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers - Allen managers should have already been nervous heading into the season. At 30 years old, he was already over the perceived age cliff in dynasty for the position, but many drafted him thinking that if he were paired with quarterback Justin Herbert, he’d hold his dynasty value. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury in week one has knocked him out of every game up until this point, and he has been a major fantasy disappointment. The one silver lining is that in his absence, Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, and DeAndre Carter have failed to produce as WR1s, leaving the door open for Allen to produce at a high rate down the stretch of the season. That could open one final door for managers to get high value in a trade involving the 30-year-old.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas - The entire Raiders offense has struggled this season, including Renfrow. He missed two games due to his concussion, and there has been a struggle to be fully implemented into this Raiders system. One of the most significant issues with the Raiders right now is their offensive line struggles. They’ve had to use more 12-personnel this season to help with their offensive line, which has taken Renfrow off the field. In their last game against Kansas City, Renfrow played a season-low snap total of thirty-five. Based on his dynasty value last season, he has taken a drastic hit this year.
Tight Ends
Jeff Bell
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay - Previously ranking Otton at TE21 felt bullish, but it is low now that he has seen some increased reps and usage. Rookies that can immediately produce are rare, and Otton showed well in his first extended opportunity, posting 6-43 in Week 5. Otton has a polished game, his blocking earned him playing time, and his natural receiving skills are evident. As he continues to grow within the offense and develops a rapport with Tom Brady, he enters the conversation as a back-end top-12 tight end.
Christian Williams
Robert Tonyan Jr, Green Bay - Following a massive 10-catch performance in Week 6, Robert Tonyan Jr ranks third in tight end catches over the last two weeks. His 9.2 fantasy points per game rank inside the Top 12 at the position over the entire year, though, and he seems to be entirely healthy following his knee injury in 2021. The only thing preventing him from ranking inside the Top 15 is his lack of a contract past 2022, but he seems to be playing into one thus far. Tonyan has shown he can be a reliable weapon for the Packers' offense, and his dynasty stock is moving upward.
Nick Whalen
David Njoku, Cleveland - The Browns gave Njoku a big contract in the offseason, which was surprising after five uneventful years to start his career. Well, the gamble has paid off, with Njoku turning in his best season as a pro, with career highs in catch percentage and yards per target. He has at least 58 receiving yards in 4 straight games. Soon Njoku will be getting targets from the best quarterback in his career Deshaun Watson as well.
Kevin Coleman
Noah Fant, Seattle - There seems to be a glimmer of hope for Fant managers out there based on his usage over the last two weeks. He’s had a combined 12 targets in that timeframe and seems to finally be in line to be the Seahawks' main tight end moving forward ahead of Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. While his ceiling is capped as the third receiving option on the team, the usage has been a positive one for Fant’s dynasty value. Quarterback Geno Smith seems to look Fant’s way when being pressured, and the tight end has been his safety blanket on the field.
Jordan McNamara
Greg Dulcich, Denver - I was a fan of Greg Dulcich as a cheap pedigree play in the second round of rookie drafts in May. After some initial hopes he would make a big impact, an injury held him out the first month of the season. Then, in his first game back, Dulcich was the clear snap and target leader in the Denver tight end corps. Notably, Dulcich's return allowed Denver to make Albert Okwuegbunam a gameday inactive. This is all a great sign for Dulcich's opportunity in the offense going forward.
