Dynasty Trade Value Chart: March

Photo: Sam Navarro, USA Today Sports

March is one of the most fun months on the dynasty calendar. The NFL Combine kicks off this week and rookie fever starts to kick into high gear. In this month’s article, we will look at some of the top storylines to follow during the Combine. We are also only two weeks away from free agency, which always has a major impact on dynasty player values. It is not only the free agents who change teams impacted but also the players who stand to be hurt or benefit from increased or competition for targets or carries. We also have a higher than usual number of young quarterbacks who will be heavily impacted by how well their teams are able to fix glaring issues with their supporting casts.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Dynasty Web Apps

We have introduced a customizable dynasty trade value chart that adjusts the player values to fit your league size, starting lineup requirements, and scoring. Thank you to all who provided feedback. The newest version is available here:

https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-dynasty-trade-value-app

It has been updated to reflect the updated dynasty values you see below and also has adjusted 2022 player values based upon redraft ADP as of March, 1.

2022 Rookie Picks

Rookie Notes

We are getting into the time of year when the trade value of rookies and rookie picks inevitably skyrockets. We are already starting to see some of that in the trade market. As such, we see some of the top prospects in this year’s class making a move up in value.

Combine Watchlist

With the combine starting this week, we are set to learn a lot more about the 2022 rookie class. We will certainly see some players make moves up the board by outperforming expectations athletically. Here are a few things I personally will have my eye on this week.

1. How freaky is Treylon Burks?

One of the things to watch most closely is how well Burks tests. He is a huge guy (6’3, 225 pounds, with 11’’ hands). But how fast is he? If Burks can run in the 4.4s, he could push his way into the Top 10 of the NFL Draft.

A trio of recent wide receiver prospects in recent years who entered the league weighing between 225 and 230 pounds were DK Metcalf (4.33 forty), A.J. Brown (4.49), and Laviska Shenault (4.58). We have seen Shenault’s lack of speed be a hindrance given that teams do not have to respect him as a deep threat, allowing defenders to sit on the shorter routes. That is one of the bigger potential concerns with Burks but one he can put to rest to some extent with a fast time.

2. Which RB outside of the Top 3 will emerge?

Everyone seems to have Breece Hall, Isaiah Spiller, and Kenneth Walker as their top three running backs (in some order). We have not yet seen anyone else emerge from the pack as a bona fide Top 75 overall prospect. Here are some things to watch at this position group:

• Can Tyler Allgeier put up a good 40 time? We saw AJ Dillon push himself into the second round a couple of years ago after putting up great numbers for his size. Allgeier is a candidate to do the same in 2022.
• How athletic is Jerome Ford? A fast 40-time and solid agility numbers could thrust Ford into the mix to be RB4.
• How big and explosive is Kyren Williams? There are some questions about his long speed and whether he is big enough to be more than a change-of-pace guy in the NFL.
• Can Rachaad White blow up the combine and emerge as a Top 75 pick the way Antonio Gibson did a few years ago?

3. How big is Matt Corral?

While Corral will not perform at the combine due to injury, his official size will be worth taking note of. The biggest knock on Corral may be his slight frame and whether he will be able to hold up at the next level.

4. How does Malik Willis handle the spotlight?

Playing at a small school, Liberty, Willis has not been in the spotlight as much as Corral, Howell, Pickett, and the other top quarterbacks. The feedback from NFL teams getting to know him will be worth following.

5. How athletic is David Bell?

Bell’s testing will be interesting because he saw a lot of manufactured touches on crossing routes and screens at Purdue. His draft stock will rise or fall depending upon whether he can show he has the speed to run past NFL-caliber cornerbacks.

Quarterback

March storylines

There are three main factors that determine how successful any quarterback is:

1. His own ability level (both physically and mentally)
2. The offensive scheme and game planning of the coaching staff
3. The talent of his pass-catchers and protection

We understandably spend most of our time dissecting the first factor but tend to forget at times just how important the other two factors are. This is the time of year where we can potentially gain an edge on the competition by really honing in on the impact of the changes to the coaching staffs and offensive personnel.

Impact of Coaching Changes

While quarterbacks are asked to carry their franchises, the truth is that scheme and the surrounding talent play a huge role in whether a quarterback is successful or not. Full disclosure, I had planned to write about some of the coaching changes and how they would impact quarterbacks but our Jeff Bell beat me to it and did a fantastic job breaking down the potential impacts in the NFC and AFC.

Here is Jeff’s take on the potential impact on Tua Tagovailoa due to the hire of Mike McDaniel:

Tagovailoa barely qualified within the top 24 quarterbacks at 14.69, and he enters a scheme that has led Matt Ryan to an MVP season and made Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff fantasy viable assets. After starting his career with a head coach that showed the minimum amount of belief possible, Tagovailoa has a second chance. The heavy play-action and RPO play into his comfort zone. The real intriguing fantasy factor is boot action off a zone rush. Even though Tagovailoa has only exceeded 30 rush yards twice in his 23 game career, he has the athleticism to consistently create a rush floor for fantasy purposes if the scheme can open him to uncovered runs.

In addition to Tagovailoa, veterans like Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, and Kirk Cousins will also potentially benefit from a coaching change.

Perhaps most interestingly, two of the top quarterbacks from the 2022 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, are already dealing with a coaching change. It is rare for this to happen so early in a top prospect’s career and the Bears and Jaguars need to have hit on these hires to get the careers of their young franchise quarterbacks back on track.

Surrounding Talent

Joe Burrow made a huge leap in his second NFL season. How much of that was due to the addition of JaMarr Chase? How much more fantasy upside does Burrow have if the Bengals are able to go out and fix the offensive line this offseason?

This feels like an even more pivotal offseason than normal for many of the younger quarterbacks in the NFL. For Burrow and Justin Herbert, solidifying themselves as stars will require their teams to fix offensive line issues. Herbert also could use an infusion of talented targets. Whichever team has the best offseason in this regard could determine who the dynasty QB3 is as we head into the 2022 season.

It is also a crucial offseason for the teams who drafted quarterbacks early in 2021. Trevor Lawrence needs a go-to receiver and major offensive line help. Mac Jones could really benefit from a true WR1, as well. Zach Wilson needs a better supporting cast before we can truly judge his viability as a franchise quarterback, as well.

Open Jobs and Top Candidates to Fill Them

The defining storyline of this offseason is the huge number of teams in need of a franchise quarterback and lack of exciting options available in both free agency and the draft. The following seven teams are desperately in need of a new starter for 2022:

• New Orleans
• Carolina
• Tampa Bay
• Washington
• Pittsburgh
• Denver
• Indianapolis

In addition, the following five teams may be less desperate for 2022 but are also potentially going to be in the quarterback market during the NFL Draft:

• Detroit
• Atlanta
• NY Giants
• Houston
• Cleveland

Free agent candidates

• Jameis Winston
• Ryan Fitzpatrick
• Mitchell Trubisky
• Andy Dalton
• Teddy Bridgewater
• Marcus Mariota

If you are a fan of one of the seven teams listed above who desperately need a starter for 2022, this is a depressing list of names. Winston is flawed but looks like the clear top option. He could be a huge free agency winner financially. We could also see multiple uninspiring veterans like Dalton and Bridgewater get another crack at starting. Lastly, draft busts like Trubisky and Mariota could potentially get a second crack at leading a team because there are not better options out there. If you are in Superflex leagues where these players are not rostered or are potentially available as throw-ins in trade negotiations for other players, it may be worth rolling the dice on them now. Both have some rushing upside and could have low-end QB2 value if things break right for them.

Running Back

The Open Starting Jobs

One starting point for trying to get a jump start on gauging player values is to look at the teams who have an opening for a true lead back heading into free agency and the draft. This year, only six teams truly fit that bill:

• Miami
• Houston
• Arizona
• Tampa Bay
• Atlanta
• Seattle

We have three rookie backs who likely will be drafted high enough that we should expect them to quickly take over the lead role. That leaves only three truly open jobs for the top free agents.

Top Free Agents

• Leonard Fournette
• Melvin Gordon
• James Conner
• Cordarrelle Patterson
• Rashard Penny

Fournette, Conner, Patterson, and Penny are players who would be best served by re-signing with their current teams. Otherwise, they could linger on the market and potentially end up having to sign as backups somewhere on low-end contracts.

Melvin Gordon is a key player to watch this month. He showed he has plenty left in the tank in 2021 and could be a big free-agency winner for his dynasty owners. He also is talented enough to tank the value of a younger back in the short term if he lands with a team that is not ready to give their guy a full-time lead role.

Wide Receiver

Position Notes

• The hiring of Mike McDaniel and his glowing comments about Jaylen Waddle are only going to serve to ratchet up the hype to another level this offseason. Do not be surprised if we see Waddle going off the board as the dynasty WR3 by the summer.
• It will be worth keeping a close eye on what the Cowboys do at wide receiver this offseason. Both Cedrick Wilson and Michael Gallup are free agents and Amari Cooper is not a lock to remain on the roster given his cap number. Dalton Schultz is also a free agent. CeeDee Lamb has seen 111 and 120 targets, respectively, in his first two seasons. If his competition for targets decreases significantly, Lamb could have a big third season.
• The Saints restructured the contract of Michael Thomas, meaning he will be back with the team in 2022. He feels like a solid buy-low candidate despite his age (he turns 29-years old this week). When he has been on the field, he has been dominant.

Top Free Agents

• Davante Adams
• Chris Godwin
• Mike Williams
• D.J. Chark
• JuJu Smith-Schuster
• Christian Kirk
• Michael Gallup
• Allen Robinson
• Odell Beckham
• Will Fuller
• Antonio Brown
• Russell Gage
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling
• Cedrick Wilson
• T.Y. Hilton
• Jamison Crowder
• Braxton Berrios

We are most likely going to see the top few potential free agents get the franchise tag. The next tier of players is very interesting. We have seen stretches of strong play from Chark, Smith-Schuster, Kirk, and Gallup. Those guys are all 25-years old, which means they could be long-term starters for whichever team signs them. An attractive landing spot could significantly boost the value of one of these young free agents.

We also have a high-profile group of older receivers who have questions either due to injuries or off-field concerns. Teams are going to have more information than we do, so taking a close look at the size and structure of deals for guys like Robinson, Fuller, Beckham, and Brown could provide valuable insight into how committed their new teams will be.

Tight End

Position Notes

• The ADP and trade value of Travis Kelce remains surprisingly high given his age. He is being drafted in the second round of early 2022 redraft leagues, so the short-term value is obvious but he feels a risky bet right now. One injury or him losing a step could completely tank his trade value, as we have seen with A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and other wide receivers in their 30s. Kelce is probably slightly less reliant on his athleticism given the nature of the position but we should not ignore the risk for a guy who is going to turn 33-years old in October.
• Darren Waller should have plenty of strong years ahead but something felt off about his play late in the 2021 season. This is a spot where my gut is telling me to sell high this offseason even if there is not a strong logical case to do so.
• Given the relative dearth of exciting young tight ends in the NFL right now, it would not be surprising to see both Kyle Pitts and Mark Andrews continue to see their value tick up throughout the summer. There is massive utility in being to lock up a positional edge for five-plus years and not have to worry about it.

Top Free Agents

• Dalton Schultz
• Mike Gesicki
• Rob Gronkowski
• Zach Ertz
• David Njoku
• Evan Engram
• Gerald Everett
• C.J. Uzomah
• Robert Tonyan Jr
• Mo Alie-Cox
• O.J. Howard
• Jared Cook

It is a solid free-agent class at the position this offseason with a mix of younger, mid-tier guys (Schultz and Gesicki) and some older veterans who could still have an impact fantasy season or two still in them (Gronkowski and Ertz). Gesicki and Schultz staying in their current situations could be the best option for their dynasty trade values. Ertz and Gronkowski would benefit from landing with a hyped young quarterback.

It will also be interesting to see if a change of scenery helps the top 2017 NFL Draft class, which has been a major disappointment. Njoku, Engram, and Howard have each drastically underperformed as first-round picks. Each is still young (Njoku is only 25-years old), so it would not be a surprise if we see one of these guys break out midway through their careers. Njoku would be especially interesting if he landed with the Chargers or some other high-powered passing offense after languishing with the Browns. We saw Eric Ebron have a breakout 13-touchdown season after leaving Detroit and one of this trio could have a similar emergence and become a surprise fantasy star in 2022.