Passing Matchups Week 9

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

LA Chargers at Atlanta

The Chargers air attack may be down at the moment, with Keenan Allen still iffy to return and Mike Williams shelved indefinitely. But it still qualifies for no-brainer Week 9 status, given the number of bye weeks and, more importantly, the sheer amount of passing volume at play here. Justin Herbert has dropped back on 66% of snaps here in 2022, and he’s gotten off 108 attempts over the past 2 weeks. Coordinator Joe Lombardi is fiercely devoted to the air, so that won’t change much, regardless of the personnel. Herbert will still funnel targets to remaining playmakers Austin Ekeler (22 catches over the past 2 weeks) and Gerald Everett (4 games of 50+ yards already). Given the soft matchup, there’s room for optimism over subs Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter on the outside and Michael Bandy out of the slot. And if Allen is able to return, of course, his outlook will be scintillating against the overwhelmed Atlanta secondary.

The Falcons simply can’t stop anyone through the air. This unit was thoroughly beatable even before starting cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward left Week 6 with long-term injuries. Now, it’s the worst secondary in football, and quarterbacks all over the talent spectrum have had their way with it. That ranges from the expected, like Joe Burrow (481 yards and 3 touchdowns) and Tom Brady (351 and 1), to the likes of Geno Smith (325 and 2), Jimmy Garoppolo (296 and 2), and P.J. Walker just last week (317 and 1). Healthy or not, there just aren’t enough talented bodies on the back end to contain opposing receivers. Amazingly, they’ve already allowed 16 different pass-catchers to top 70 yards – and 6 of them have cleared 90. It’s safe to project Justin Herbert and his weapons to find space Sunday against this MASH unit. They did add ex-Chief Rashad Fenton to the mix in a mid-week trade, which could help. But as long as the Falcons are leaning on names like Cornell Armstrong, Darren Hall, and Dee Alford to anchor the coverage group, this will be fantasy’s juiciest matchup.

Kansas City vs Tennessee

The Chiefs air attack may no longer be the league’s shiniest new toy, but it’s been just as potent as ever here in 2022. Patrick Mahomes II has adjusted to a more intermediate-based attack, sitting fourth league-wide in yards per attempt with Tyreek Hill out of town. He’s been especially productive of late, averaging 351 yards over his last three games, all in different game scripts. And thanks to the Chiefs’ pass-centric ways near the goal line, Mahomes has thrown multiple touchdowns in six of his seven outings. Projecting his receivers week-to-week isn’t as clear-cut, of course. Travis Kelce continues to pace the position for all of fantasy, but he’s always been a no-brainer play. Thankfully, possession man JuJu Smith-Schuster has settled in nicely. He’s drawn 8+ targets in 5 of 7 games, and he’s put up 12-237-2 over the last two weeks.

The Titans’ snake-bitten pass defense has enjoyed a two-game breather, facing the doomed Matt Ryan experiment in Week 7 and Davis Mills’ Texans in Week 8. But prior to that, they’d been thrashed by four straight opposing passers, allowing 300+ yards and multiple touchdowns to each of them. Simply put, this is a classic “pass funnel” defense, dominating against the run (No. 2 in the league) and forcing everyone to produce through the air (No. 24). It doesn’t help that they’re badly undermanned in the secondary; stud safety Kevin Byard can do only so much on his own. They’ve whiffed badly on early-round cornerbacks for years, leaving mediocre guys like Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary locked into crucial, every-down roles. They’re also leaning heavily on burnable journeyman Terrance Mitchell, since Caleb Farley, last year’s No. 21 pick, isn’t even in the rotation. It’s hard to see Patrick Mahomes II having to break much of a sweat to find whatever gaps he needs to Sunday.

Green Bay at Detroit

The Packers are floundering, but they could hardly ask for a better life preserver than a date with these Lions. Consider all of Aaron Rodgers’ history in this matchup, then factor in perhaps the worst Detroit secondary he’s ever faced. Rodgers will find plenty of holes to attack with impressive rookie Romeo Doubs and his plug-in veteran teammates. Doubs has been up-and-down but has caught Rodgers’ eye as a playmaker. His dazzling Week 8 touchdown made a clear WR1 statement in this shaky group, so if Rodgers is going to erupt anytime soon, Doubs should benefit mightily. There aren’t many better weeks to project that, so both make for sneaky Week 9 plays.

The Lions continue to field arguably the league’s worst pass defense, a trend that’s run on for over a decade now. Every opponent thus far (at least, everyone who’s needed to throw against them) has done so with ease, winning both down the field and with yards after the catch. Last week it was Tua Tagovailoa (29 of 36 for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns), but Geno Smith (23-30-320-2) and Carson Wentz (30-46-337-3) have also posted top-notch fantasy lines. And there’s no reason to project a change; this secondary is in desperate need of a full talent infusion. Even backbone cornerback Jeff Okudah has flashed on and off in coverage, while teammates Amani Oruwariye and A.J. Parker have been among the league’s most burned all season. Last Sunday, even with Tagovailoa struggling to throw deep, no one had an answer for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle (20 catches, 294 yards, 2 touchdowns). Oruwariye and Parker were the main targets, but with little help from the bench or the safeties, the whole group simply bleeds production. Okudah is a bright spot but isn’t nearly at the point that we should be considering him in matchups. Even the Packers’ shaky receiver room trends way upward here.

Washington vs Minnesota

The Commanders frequently find themselves trailing late. They’ve been down in the fourth quarter in every 2022 game they’ve played thus far, in fact. That’s allowed them ample opportunity to throw, and Taylor Heinicke looks just as equipped to turn that into yardage as Carson Wentz was. Heinicke has completed 70% of his throws over two starts, and his mobility helps to make up for his mediocre downfield arm. Most importantly, Heinicke was the starter for most of last season, and he carries over continuity with alpha WR1 Terry McLaurin. The explosive McLaurin has claimed 25% of Heinicke’s targets over these last two weeks, averaging 6 catches and 93 yards, with a touchdown. Over 15 games with Heinicke last year, McLaurin drew an identical 25% share; his fantasy WR2 role is secure. With Jahan Dotson still on the mend, Curtis Samuel and the running backs also project well for volume in this favorable matchup.

The Vikings are peculiar in many ways for a 6-1 team, and it’s fair to wonder just how good they are. Take the pass defense, for example. It’s uncommon to see this kind of success with such a burnable back end. The Vikings have benefited from a soft schedule of quarterbacks, yet only the pitiful Lions are allowing more yards per attempt, and only three teams are giving up more per game (276). Some of those numbers have been fueled by catch-up mode, but this remains a leaky unit, one that’s been especially shredded by wideouts of late. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle combined for 18 catches and 306 yards right before the bye, after which DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore put up 19 and 251 of their own (with 2 touchdowns). This secondary isn’t necessarily weak, with decent man cornerbacks and safety Harrison Smith still a difference-maker. But opponents keep finding gaps between the zones, winning downfield far too often. They’ve struggled against tight ends, too, giving up strong lines to Mike Gesicki (6 for 69 and 2 touchdowns), Dallas Goedert (5 for 82), and even Cole Kmet (a season-high 45 yards).

Las Vegas at Jacksonville

The Raiders are fresh off their worst pass-game showing in quite some time, but their bounce-back potential is high. This attack goes through Davante Adams playing a dominant role across the field, but the Saints committed to erasing him and succeeded (one catch for three yards). It’s a near-certainty that Adams (and, more importantly, Derek Carr) will find more holes against the Jacksonville secondary. Adams boasts the physicality and burst to work his way through the Jaguars’ zones with ease; this sets up as a season-best type of matchup for him. And if he’s producing, then it’s likely Mack Hollins and slot man Hunter Renfrow will be drawing favorable coverages of their own.

The Jaguars’ rebuilding defense is definitely showing promise; it’s no longer the laughingstock unit we saw from 2019-21. The pass rush, for example, has rocketed up the charts and settled as a top-10 group. But there are still holes to exploit here, and their opponents are doing just that whenever they need to. Three of them have topped 295 yards, including the likes of Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan. There remains a black hole of talent in the secondary, with longtime underperformers like Darious Williams and Tre Herndon still forced into hefty roles. With no man-coverage stars, they’re forced into loose, shaky zones that receivers easily find holes in. They’ve already allowed 15 different pass-catchers to notch 50+ yards, from usual suspects like A.J. Brown and Michael Pittman to the likes of Darius Slayton and Ashton Dulin.

Bottom 5 Passing Matchups

Houston vs Philadelphia

The Texans are arguably the NFL’s worst team, so it’s no surprise they can’t move the ball through the air. Davis Mills has shown smarts and poise but continues to look like a low-level starter at best, and he rarely produces until garbage time (if even then). In fact, this low-impact unit has only cleared 250 yards once, needing 41 throws to do so in a blowout Week 7 loss. As a result, playmakers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins simply can’t get going for the fantasy world. Cooks has topped 60 yards only once thus far; he’s doing nothing long-term for the franchise and has predictably popped up as trade bait. Collins has averaged 16.9 yards a catch but has drawn just a 14% target share and looks questionable for Week 9 anyway. There’s no one else of note to discuss, and no reason to project them to anything usable Thursday night.

The Eagles have faced a truly fortunate schedule of quarterbacks to open the year, including Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Cooper Rush, and Kenny Pickett. (That schedule won’t get much tougher, either. Of the nine quarterbacks left for them to face in 2022, Daniel Jones stands as the clear third-best.) As a result, the undefeated Eagles sit near the top of the league by most pass-defense measures. In fact, only one opponent has cleared 225 yards through the air, and Kyler Murray needed 42 attempts to do it. The Eagles have assembled an elite trio of cornerbacks, with Darius Slay and James Bradberry both staking All-Pro claims and Avonte Maddox strong in the slot. And their jobs are made even easier by a strong, deep pass rush that ranked sixth in sack rate even before adding Robert Quinn. All in all, it’s not hyperbolic to call this one of the biggest on-paper mismatches of the season. There’s no viable path to production here for the floundering Texans, even in garbage time.

NY Jets vs Buffalo

The Jets fell back to Earth in Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, with Zach Wilson again struggling mightily to look like a franchise passer. Wilson managed a career-high 355 yards, but 33% of them came on two throws, and he was wildly inaccurate elsewhere. Among 35 qualifiers, he now sits 34th in completion rate and 23rd in per-game yardage. Even with explosive rookie wideout Garrett Wilson taking flight and tight end Tyler Conklin breaking out, Wilson looks devoid of fantasy consistency. He's fallen below 215 yards in three of his five starts, after all, and he’s thrown just three touchdowns. Wilson has been an immediate hit, and he’s always an upside WR3 play. But Elijah Moore is no longer in the team’s plans, so it’s hard to get excited about anyone else here, and that hesitation triples against Buffalo.

The Bills continue to smother opposing pass games, even with multiple All-Pro starters on the shelf. They’ve unearthed new contributors and haven’t missed a beat, sitting seventh in yards allowed per attempt and ninth per game. The young cornerback trio of Kaiir Elam, Dane Jackson, and slot man Taron Johnson has been a revelation in the absence of TreDavious White, and opposing wideouts have struggled prior to garbage time. They’re helped along by a dominant pass rush that harasses quarterbacks while hardly ever having to blitz. Behind them, Jordan Poyer may be out of commission himself for a few weeks, but there’s ample depth at safety. And the time may be at hand for White to return, at least in limited fashion, from last year’s ACL surgery. It’s been stunning to see their dominance without him, and it’s frightening to imagine opposing passers (namely Zach Wilson) having him thrown into the mix.

Detroit vs Green Bay

The Lions find themselves rebuilding yet again; there’s simply no way they can pin their long-term futures to Jared Goff. The seven-year veteran opened the year well, averaging 282 yards over the first four games, with 11 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. Over the last three, he’s slipped to 259, with 1 touchdown and 3 picks. The trade of tight end T.J. Hockenson tells us the team is now in full-on future mode, and also that there will be even less fantasy intrigue in this attack going forward. Possession receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is now the only piece worth trusting. He’s a reliable volume guy, especially with Hockenson gone; he’s drawn 9+ targets in 4 of his five full games. But there’s not much dynamism here, as D.J. Chark sits on IR, and reserve types Josh Reynolds and Khalif Raymond dominate snaps.

The Packers are searching for answers but have to be happy with the ascension of their pass defense. Coordinator Joe Barry‘s blitz-happy scheme (fifth league-wide in pressure rate) keeps heat on opposing passers, and they’re capable of locking down at least one wideout a week. They haven’t allowed an opponent to top 220 yards through the air since Tom Brady did it in catch-up mode back in Week 2. Their best showing came last Sunday, with Josh Allen managing just 218 yards on 52% completions, with 2 touchdowns but also 2 interceptions. It’s worth noting that 108 of those yards went to Stefon Diggs; no other Bill produced more than 41. That speaks to the impact of top cornerback Jaire Alexander, who spent the evening locking down Buffalo Gabe Davis (2 catches, 35 yards) across the field. Alexander has put in fantastic work all year, as expected; he was the driving force in cooling off Jets rookie wideout Garrett Wilson (1 catch, 8 yards) three weeks ago. Rasul Douglas is typically strong on the other side, and the team gets solid help coverage from safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage.

LA Rams at Tampa Bay

The Rams offense is in shambles at the moment, unable to run or throw the ball with any real dynamism or consistency. Through seven games, the defending champs sit 19th in yards per attempt – 26th if we factor in passes that were thwarted by sacks. Matthew Stafford’s elbow injury is likely more serious than he's let on, and his supporting cast is doing him few favors. Prized offseason edition Allen Robinson has averaged just 32 yards on a weak 14% target share, and there's virtually no explosiveness behind him. Stafford and Cooper Kupp desperately need more options to step up and spread the field, but it's hard to see where they'll come from. Kupp and tight end Tyler Higbee have utterly dominated attention (54% of team targets) but turned it into relatively little (just 10.0 yards per reception).

The Buccaneers are also reeling, but it’s hard to place too much blame on the pass defense. Coach Todd Bowles' unit has limited quarterbacks all year; only one, Aaron Rodgers (back in Week 3) has cleared 250 yards in this matchup. That includes an impressive date with Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs (62% completions, just 6.7 yards per throw) along the way. The secondary has been built brilliantly, boasting an elite cornerback duo in shutdown man Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, who could return this week from a hip injury. It’s no surprise they've yet to allow a 100-yard receiver; in fact, only one has topped 85. But the straw that stirs the drink is the dynamic pass rush, which sits third league-wide in sack rate and is deep enough to weather the loss of Shaq Barrett to IR. The Buccaneers may be down overall, and they're no longer Vegas darlings. But Vegas also knows opponents will struggle to pass on them - particularly struggling units like the Rams.

Tampa Bay vs LA Rams

The Buccaneers still aren’t scaring anyone with the pass, and it's no big surprise why. Tom Brady has spent the season both wildly distracted by life and frustrated by the injuries that have decimated his receiving corps. Thankfully, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are back in the lineup, but they're still not producing up to expectations. Godwin has topped 70 yards only once across his six games, and he's yet to find the end zone. He’s being used as little more than a slot/screen weapon as Brady treads water behind a snake-bitten line. Jones looks like a shell of his former self, struggling to get on the field and make any impact at all. Ultimately, this game has all the makings of a high-volume day for Brady, but it's hard to count on any real efficiency here.

The Rams, for all of their troubles, still field one of the NFL's stingiest pass defenses. They haven’t allowed even a 240-yard passer since Kyler Murray and the Cardinals ran catch-up mode back in Week 3. Most impressively, they’re dominating during top cornerback Jalen Ramsey’s worst season in coverage. Ramsey has been a ballhawk, for sure, though his suffocating down-to-down coverage ability hasn't quite been there. As long as Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd are pushing the pocket up front, the spotty secondary’s job is made much easier, and Tom Brady often struggles against strong interior pass rushes anyway. Expect to see Ramsey working heavily against Mike Evans, who’s struggled in that matchup before, with underrated slot man Troy Hill glued to Chris Godwin underneath. Brady and company may well build strong stat lines on sheer passing volume, but that looks like their only real path.