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It appears all but certain Bryce Young will be the first overall selection to the Carolina Panthers. Young is an outstanding prospect, but he does have size concerns. There are no size concerns with C.J. Stroud, who stands 6-foot-3 and 214 pounds and is an elite prospect in his own right. In two seasons as the starter at Ohio State, Stroud threw for 8,123 yards and 85 touchdowns in 25 games. He has strong arm talent that allows him to make every throw in the book. His accuracy and touch on deep balls consistently show up on film, and his accurate downfield sideline shots are reminiscent of Joe Burrow. Stroud has enough athleticism for his size to provide an extra element at the next level, specifically when creating and evading pressure within the pocket.
Recent reports of Stroud scoring in the 18th percentile on the S2 cognitive test conflict with what we've seen on the field. Two indicators of good mental processing show up repeatedly when watching Stroud: anticipatory throws and back shoulder throws all over the field, including deep down the field. The defense has to cover the entire field when trying to defend him, and that's exactly what we want in our quarterback.
The Stroud watch will be one of the most interesting parts of the first round, especially if the Texans pass on him at second overall, as the rumors suggest. Let's take a look at the best landing spots for Stroud at the top of the draft.
Detroit Lions, Pick 6
Stroud being drafted as the quarterback of the future for the Lions would be the absolute dream scenario for his dynasty stock. Head coach Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson form a solid infrastructure. Even if Johnson were to leave after the 2023 season, Stroud's presence shouldn't make it difficult to find a capable replacement. Jared Goff would, on paper, be the quarterback in Detroit for the entire 2023 season, but he would almost certainly be gone after this year if Stroud is drafted. Cutting Goff next offseason would save the Lions $26,650,064 in cap space. At that point. Stroud would be the quarterback of the future, throwing to a young superstar in Amon-Ra St. Brown and another receiver projected to be in that same category after this season in Jameson Williams. Detroit's rebuild is going splendidly right now. Stroud would be the cherry on top.
Las Vegas Raiders, Pick 7
The Raiders were rumored to be in discussions for the number one overall pick prior to the Bears trading it to the Panthers. Were they also interested in Bryce Young, or were they possibly trying to come up for Stroud? You never know with Josh McDaniels. While McDaniels is a questionable head coach, the offensive production of his teams should not be understated. McDaniels is the play caller in Vegas and, paired with Stroud, would help his first-round quarterback reach new heights as long as he's the head coach. The Raiders did sign Jimmy Garoppolo to a three-year, $72,750,000 contract this offseason, but Garoppolo will turn 32 during the year. There is a potential out in the contract after one season, and moving on from Derek Carr is a sign the organization is looking for a long-term solution with a higher upside. Garoppolo is nothing more than a stop-gap and the perfect bridge quarterback for whoever ends up becoming the quarterback of the future. If it is Stroud, look for him to start games at some point during his rookie season and increase his already high dynasty stock while throwing to Davante Adams.
Atlanta Falcons, Pick 8
Desmond Ridder was drafted in the third round as a questionable prospect who was inconsistent and wildly inaccurate at times during his time at the University of Cincinnati. For some reason, Atlanta appears to be rolling with Ridder in 2023, but in case this is all a massive smoke screen, let's imagine Stroud as a Falcon. Stroud would be a massive upgrade and would step into an offense containing two very good, and possibly elite, first-round pass catchers in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. The Falcons led the NFL in rush attempts (559) and ranked third in rushing yards (2,718) last season. Thus, Arthur Smith's cautious ways would limit Stroud's ceiling as a rookie, but the surrounding cast should mitigate this some. And since Stroud would be a major upgrade over Ridder and Marcus Mariota, the expectation would be Smith transitions to a more pass-friendly offense, especially as Stroud develops.
Indianapolis Colts, Pick 4
The entire NFL world was stunned by Andrew Luck's retirement in 2019, and the Colts organization has floundered since. After failed attempts with veteran quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan, it's time for Indianapolis to lock in their new quarterback of the future. If Stroud falls into their laps, he would immediately project as the Colts starting quarterback and would be the favorite over Gardner Minshew to start in Week 1. Even if Minshew were to start the year, he'd project to start five games at most before Stroud took the reigns for good. As a rookie, Stroud would start for a franchise in a transition and rebuilding mode. Shane Steichen, the Eagles' offensive coordinator in 2022, is the new head coach, and Jim Bob Cooter, the Jaguars' passing game coordinator in 2022, is the new offensive coordinator. But Stroud would greatly expedite the rebuild and would have some help with Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and two second-year players with potential in Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods.
Seattle Seahawks, Pick 5
Seattle has a strong infrastructure with general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll, so they could arguably be higher on this list. But Carroll will be 72 years old this season, and Geno Smith was signed to a three-year, $75,000,000 contract this offseason. There is a potential out in the contract next offseason, but even if that occurs, Stroud's most realistic scenario would be waiting until 2024 to be Seattle's starting quarterback unless Smith were to significantly regress after throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns last year. Tyler Lockett will be 32 during the 2024 season, and there's no guarantee the organization would have found a competent replacement for him by that point. Still, Stroud would be the quarterback of the future for one of the strongest organizations in the NFL, and there is a lot of steam regarding Seattle drafting a wide receiver with Pick 20 in the first round.
