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The Week 6 slate presents some interesting challenges. First, the pass-game options on the slate are not nearly as deep as normal. Missing from our Main Slate are Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Lamar Jackson. This also means we are without a bunch of elite pass catchers like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen. In addition to the players whose teams are not on the main slate, we are also missing some superstars due to injury. Week 5 was one of the worst in recent seasons in terms of key injuries and many of those teams are on the main slate. One of the biggest keys to success in Week 6 is going to be figuring out how those injuries impact usage. So before we dive into recommended plays at each position, let’s begin by walking through some of these key injury situations.
Injury Replacements Week 6
Justin Jefferson Jefferson was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Prior to his Week 5 injury, Jefferson was averaging a whopping 11.8 targets per game and those have to go somewhere in this Minnesota offense. First, we need to figure out how to distribute some of those opportunities that were going to Jefferson amongst the top targets (Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn, and T.J. Hockenson). You will see below who my money will be on as the biggest beneficiary. Second, we need to figure out how much Jefferson’s absence shrinks the overall Vikings offensive pie. We can’t just assume the pie stays the same size without arguably the league’s best wide receiver missing.
De’Von Achane The Dolphins offense has averaged 36.2 PPG this season and a big part of the success was due to their star rookie back. Over the past three weeks, Achane averaged 172.7 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. That is a massive chunk of fantasy production that is now up for grabs. Though again, we have to reduce the overall offensive pie because whoever steps into Achane’s opportunities will not be nearly as explosive. Unless perhaps the Dolphins give some of those rushing opportunities on jet sweeps to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. In the backfield, does Raheem Mostert just add most of Achane’s opportunities to his projected workload? Or does somebody like Salvon Ahmed ($4,300) step into Achane’s shoes and get double-digit touches?
Miles Sanders Sanders has not been particularly good this season but he was averaging 12.2 carries and 4.8 targets per game, which opens up a bunch of potential touches for Chuba Hubbard ($5,500).
Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson With the Bears top two running backs both sidelined, D’Onta Foreman ($6,000) steps into the lead role.
Quarterback
As mentioned above, we do not have Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, or Lamar Jackson on the main slate. Plus, Deshaun Watson and Anthony Richardson are out, which takes another two quarterbacks with rushing upside out of the mix. In these large tournaments, we usually need rushing upside to finish at the top of the standings and there are very few quarterbacks on this slate with realistic potential for 10-plus rushing points. Thus, it makes sense to put a lot of chips on the few guys who have proven ability to rack up big numbers on the ground. The floor and median projection may be higher on a guy like Matthew Stafford ($7,300), who is expected to be extremely popular. However, what is his ceiling? Stafford hasn’t topped 25 FanDuel points since October of 2021 and last had 30 FanDuel points in a game way back in 2015.
Top Plays
Justin Fields, Bears ($8,500)
- In the last two weeks, Fields put up 28.9 and 33.0 fantasy points against Denver and Washington, respectively. While both those defenses are struggling, each was giving up less than 20 FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks going into those games. The Vikings are allowing 19.6 PPG (ninth-most).
- The Bears offensive line is getting healthy and Teven Jenkins is expected to return this week.
- It is reasonable to expect that Fields, who is averaging 7.8 rushing attempts per game this season, will take on a heavier rushing workload with the Bears top two running backs both sidelined. Fields averaged 10.7 rushing attempts per game last season.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($8,700)
- Since the start of the 2022 season, Hurts has played 23 games (playoffs included) and scored 22 rushing touchdowns. Around the fantasy industry, projections for Hurts’ touchdowns this week are typically in the 0.6 range. While this is not unreasonable against a talented Jets defense, we have an increasingly large sample size showing Hurts averages very close to 1.0 rushing touchdowns per week.
- In 23 games over the last two seasons, Hurts has 11 games with at least 26 FanDuel points. With the possible exception of Fields, nobody on this slate has nearly as much upside as Hurts.
Others to Consider
Sam Howell, Commanders ($7,000)
- The Commanders-Falcons matchup has sneaky shootout potential this week. While the game total sits at a very modest 42.5 points, we have seen some previous Commanders games with lot totals shoot out. 60% of Washington’s games this season have gone over 60 points total. Plus, the Commanders have scored at least 31 points in both of their road games this season.
- Howell’s rushing totals have been relatively modest this season, with 101 yards through five games (12th-most). However, there is some reason to believe that he has more rushing upside than we have seen in our small sample size. Howell ran more often in the preseason and he ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns his final college season.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars ($7,600)
- Lawrence has not show much ceiling yet this season. His best game to date was 18.7 fantasy points in the Week 1 win over the Colts. However, he did have five games last season with at least 24.9 fantasy points.
- Lawrence and the Jaguars passing offense looked the best it has all season in the upset of the Bills, with Lawrence throwing fro 315 yards.
- Lawrence has decent rushing upside and his production on the ground has been trending in the right direction, with 15 carries for 73 yards over the last two weeks.
Running Back
The running back position is the strongest on the slate. In simulations, almost 60% of optimal lineups included a back in the flex spot. The pricing at the position combined with some injury values allows for a wide range of roster construction. Chuba Hubbard ($5,500) is going to be an understandably popular cap saving option and D’Onta Foreman also projects well with the Bears top two backs out. Even Salvon Ahmed ($4,300) has modest appeal as an extreme cap saver if we get further indications he will be second in line behind Raheem Mostert ($8,500). Mostert, Kyren Williams ($8.200), David Montgomery ($8,100), Josh Jacobs ($8,000), Travis Etienne ($7,700), Bijan Robinson ($7,600), Alvin Kamara ($7,500), D’Andre Swift ($7,200), Joe Mixon ($7,000), and Breece Hall ($6,800) are each priced attractively and in solid spots this week with a clear path to 20-plus touchdowns and realistic multi-touchdown potential. That $6,800 to $8,500 range is where I plan to concentrate but the bargain backups and Christian McCaffrey ($10,300) are certainly in the mix, as well.
Top Plays
Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($8,000)
- The usage has been there for Jacobs. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged 18.0 carries and 8.5 targets per game. The issue has been a lack of efficiency with Jacobs having three straight games between 3.4 and 3.6 yards per carry. However, this is still the same guy who led the NFL in rushing and averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
- One of the metrics that can be predictive in terms of figuring out when an underperforming star might have a bounce back game is comparing a team’s implied team total for the week to the team’s season scoring average. This metric pointed towards Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals getting back on track last week. This week, the Raiders are projected to score 41% more points than they have averaged through the first five weeks.
- The Patriots are giving up 120.2 total yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins ($8,500)
- No player on the slate has a higher touchdown expectation or better odds of scoring multiple touchdowns that Mostert. On that basis alone, he has to be near the top of the list of tournament options.
- Miami running backs have averaged 3.0 touchdowns per game this season (12 rushing and 3 receiving). Mostert has been responsible for over half those touchdowns, with eight total through five games. He has scored in 80% of his games this season, with a blowout loss to the Bills being the only game he did not find the end zone.
- Prior to De’Von Achane bursting onto the scene in Week 3, Mostert was dominating the Dolphins backfield and playing 73% of the offensive snaps. With Achane now on injured reserve and Jeff Wilson Jr. listed as doubtful, we should project Mostert to be right back to that 70%-plus snap and opportunity range.
- The Panthers have given up the second-most touchdowns (1.8 per game) and second-most FanDuel PPG (28.5 per game) to opposing running backs. The Dolphins are massive 13.5-point road favorites with by far the highest team total (31.0) on the slate.
D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($7,200)
- Since Swift broke out in Week 2, he has had at least 18 opportunities in every single game. Over this four game stretch, he is averaging 18.8 carries and 3.5 receptions per game. 22.3 touches per game for a player of Swift’s caliber in an offense as dangerous as the Philadelphia’s is a very attractive proposition. Especially when you take into account that Swift is priced fairly as the RB11 and is only expected to be about the 10th-most popular back on the slate.
- The Jets have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season (21.8 FanDuel PPG).
Others to Consider
Alvin Kamara, Saints ($7,500)
- Kamara’s usage came back to earth (52.4% of carries and 11.5% of targets) after logging a ridiculous share of team opportunities (57.9% of carries and 35.9% of targets) in Week 4. This was largely due to Kendre Miller playing 36% of the snaps after playing only 8% the previous week. However, Kamara’s Week 4 usage may actually be more predictive for Week 6 given the fact the Saints blew out the Patriots 34-0. Miller had only two touches prior to New Orleans going up by three touchdowns.
- The Texans are giving up 22.6 FanDuel PPG to opposing baks (7th-most).
David Montgomery, Lions ($8,100)
- Montgomery has to be the heavy favorite to lead the NFL in touchdowns this season. He has already scored six in four games. It is easier to trust this output given that we saw Jamaal Williams lead the league with 17 touchdowns last season in what was an even lesser red zone role in the same offense.
- Montgomery has already had 14 carries from inside the 10-yard line (scoring five of his six touchdowns from short distance).
- Montgomery had a massive 21.4% target share last week with Jahmyr Gibbs sidelined. Gibbs is set to miss his second-straight game.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($6,500)
- What if you knew for sure that Taylor would see 70% or more of the Colts running back opportunities like he historically has at this bargain price tag? He would almost certainly be the most popular running back on the slate. This is a spot where it makes sense to embrace the uncertainty and ignore the low floor in tournaments. If you think there’s even a 25% chance that we get Taylor back in a true lead role this week, then he is a fantastic roll of the dice at projected ownership under 2%.
Wide Receiver
The Justin Jefferson injury along with Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs being off of the main slate gives us fewer options at the top and is likely to lead to relatively high rostered percentages for Tyreek Hill ($9,800), Ja’Marr Chase ($9,300), Cooper Kupp ($8,700), and Davante Adams ($8,300). Each of those guys has massive upside worth pursuing despite their popularity and it makes sense to try to squeeze at least one of the top guys onto every roster. In the upper-mid tier, DJ Moore ($8,000) and Amon-Ra St. Brown stand out. Moore has been on fire the last couple weeks and St. Brown should go right back to being a target magnet with Jahmyr Gibbs out and Sam LaPorta banged up. In the middle tier, there are also strong options with Garrett Wilson ($6,900), Jaylen Waddle ($6,800), Jordan Addison ($6,700), and Drake London ($6,400) standing out. With the possible exception of Josh Downs ($5,600) and Jonathan Mingo ($4,900), it is really ugly below $6K this week.
Top Plays
DJ Moore, Bears ($8,000)
- It is hard to know what to make of the industry-wide ownership projections regarding Moore, both on Footballguys and elsewhere. Everyone seems to agree he will be under 5% rostered. I juiced his ownership up a bit higher in my numbers but even with that boost, he is still nowhere close to as popular as my numbers expect him to be.
- Moore has scored 40.4% of the Bears receiving fantasy points this season, second highest on the slate behind only Ja’Marr Chase. The Vikings have given up over 1,200 yards passing and 9 touchdowns through the air.
- The Bears offensive resurgence has been due in large part to the emergence of DJ Moore as a big-play machine. He has 16 catches for 361 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two weeks.
- The Vikings have allowed more receiving yards (1,048) and catches (90) to opposing wide receivers than any team in the NFL this season.
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($9,300)
- You can probably throw out the stats from the first four weeks when it comes to the Bengals. Joe Burrow was a shell of himself to start the season with the lingering calf injury. He seemed close to his usual self in last week’s win over the Cardinals (317 yards and 3 touchdowns) and says he feels even better this week.
- Ja’Marr Chase owns a massive share (42.6%) of the Bengals passing game production, highest on the slate. With Tee Higgins questionable (though I expect him to play) with a rib injury, Chase should again see an even larger share of target than normal.
- The Seahawks are excellent against the run but are giving up the third-most FanDuel PPG (39.0) per game to opposing wide receivers.
Drake London, Falcons ($6,400)
- As mentioned when discussing Sam Howell above, I like the Commanders-Falcons game to have sneaky shootout potential. The Commanders are playing fast offensively and have given up 33 or more points three times.
- The Commanders have given up 38.4 PPG to opposing wide receivers this season. Drake London has scored 60.5% of the Falcons wide receiver fantasy points.
Others to Consider
Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins ($6,800)
- While most of the fantasy focus when it comes to De’Von Achane’s injury has been about how the running back snaps will break down, it is worth remembering that Achane was being used very creatively and was often on the field with Mostert. Many of his touchdowns and big plays came on jet sweeps, quick screens, and similar actions. Perhaps Waddle and Tyreek Hill are the guys who get some of those opportunities that Achane’s absence has opened up.
- Waddle has shown a ceiling in this offense with a ceiling performance of 34.6 fantasy points last season. In a game where the Dolphins are projected to score 31 points and will be without one of their most dynamic weapons, odds are increased that Waddle has his first real ceiling game since scoring 22.8 points last Christmas.
Jordan Addison, Vikings ($6,700)
- Vikings wide receivers have averaged 14.6 receptions and 22.2 targets per game this year. While that number may drop slightly with Justin Jefferson out, this is still a pass-heavy offense with plenty of opportunities for the top wide receiver options.
- Expect Addison to fill the lead role in the Vikings pass attack for as long as Jefferson is sidelined. He has been excellent so far this season averaging a healthy 8.6 yards per target.
- Addison has played 70% or more of the snaps twice this season and had six receptions in both games. He should be on the field for 80% or more of the snaps with Jefferson out.
- It is encouraging to hear Vikings coaches say that the plan is to be “pedal to the medal” with Addison’s usage in Jefferson’s absence. Everything points to him being peppered with targets the next month.
Tight End
With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off of the main slate, there are few exciting options at the position. T.J. Hockenson ($6,700) should be especially popular with Justin Jefferson out. George Kittle ($5,900), Dallas Goedert ($6,200), Cole Kmet ($6,100), and Logan Thomas ($5,400) are each coming off of big fantasy games last week. Riding the hot hand with one of those four is my favorite strategy in Week 6.
Top Plays
George Kittle, 49ers ($5,900)
- The matchup is difficult and the weather could be an issue in Cleveland but those factors should also lead to Kittle being relatively unpopular (single digit ownership) on a slate with very few good options at tight end.
- No tight end on the slate can come close to matching Kittle’s multi-touchdown upside. He has scored multiple touchdowns in four of his last nine games (44%) and got into the end zone three times last week.
- As a point of reference, Kittle has more multiple-touchdown games since Week 15 of 2022 than T.J. Hockenson (the chalkiest option on this slate) has had in his five-year career.
Logan Thomas, Commanders ($5,400)
- As mentioned a few times already, this Washington-Atlanta game has some high upside plays priced very low. If you stack the game (say a Sam Howell-Logan Thomas stack with Drake London), you have enough cap space to build a monster roster around the stack. It also makes sense as a spot where you can target a single piece and Thomas looks like one of the better cap-saving options.
- Thomas led the Commanders with nine catches for 77 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets last week.
- The Falcons are giving up the third-most PPG (13.4) to opposing tight ends this season.
Others to Consider
Evan Engram, Jaguars ($5,500)
- Engram is one of the higher-floor options at the position this week. He has at least eight targets in four straight games.
- He is third in the NFL amongst all tight ends with 29 catches this season, behind only Travis Kelce (36 when including the Thursday night game) and T.J. Hockenson (30).
T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($6,700)
- One of the big questions on this slate is how much the other Vikings targets will benefit from the absence of Justin Jefferson. Hockenson is a decent bet to see a couple extra targets than normal (7.8 targets per game), which is likely to make him the most popular play on a weak tight end slate. While I think he is a fine option, if he is 20% owned it may make sense to be slightly below the field given that he has not been a big touchdown scorer (0.3 per game for his career).
Defense
Top Plays
New Orleans Saints ($4,000)
- The Saints were at the top of our list last week and came through with a monster 22-point fantasy day against the Patriots. While the task is more difficult against the Texans, who are getting Laremy Tunsil back at left tackle and have a quarterback who has yet to throw a touchdowns, I like going back to the well again with a unit that will fly below the radar given the matchup. The Saints are favored in this matchup and the Texans have a team total below 20 points.
Minnesota Vikings ($3,100)
- Rostering the Vikings as home favorites at a bargain salary will be an understandably popular play in Week 6. The salary makes the rest of roster construction easy. Plus, the Bears offense has been very boom or bust this season. While they were excellent last week, this is a unit that has multiple turnovers in 80% of games this season.
San Francisco 49ers ($5,000)
- The 49ers have given up more than 16 points just once this season and have three games with multiple turnovers, including a dominating game last week in which San Francisco held Dallas to 197 yards of offense with four turnovers. The Browns will be playing backup quarterback PJ Walker and the forecast calls for wind and rain.
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