Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and Underdog Fantasy, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With Underdog Fantasy releasing the Best Ball Mania IV tournament a few months ago, excitement has been growing each day. Each week I want to break down what has changed from the previous week when it comes to NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on Underdog. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly wanting to find those players who are of value in our drafts and avoid some of the players who might be overvalued.
Each week I will look at the Underdog ADP tool on 4for4.com to examine the top 10 risers and the top 10 fallers at ADP. These shifts in ADP are often driven by the news we have coming in that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players.
TOP 10 ADP RISERS
| RANK | PLAYER | POSITION | TEAM | JULY 10 ADP | ADP CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Patrick | WR | DEN | 176.6 | 11.0 |
| 2 | DeVante Parker | WR | NE | 196.0 | 9.5 |
| 3 | Nico Collins | WR | HOU | 126.0 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Taysom Hill | TE | NO | 157.5 | 4.1 |
| 5 | Diontae Johnson | WR | PIT | 58.9 | 4.0 |
| 6 | Terrace Marshall Jr | WR | CAR | 206.7 | 4.0 |
| 7 | Kenneth Gainwell | RB | PHI | 167.9 | 3.7 |
| 8 | Romeo Doubs | WR | GB | 119.2 | 3.4 |
| 9 | David Montgomery | RB | DET | 79.1 | 3.3 |
| 10 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | 162.4 | 3.0 |
***These ten ADP risers are based on the dates 07/3/2023-07/10/23***
We are officially in the lull of ADP shifting, with the last few weeks not much changing in the NFL news landscape. Things are getting closer to heating up, and we will surely see some bigger swings in ADP as camps start to be more active and players get talked up in the media. We also should start to see some veterans sign over the next few weeks, and that could really help shake up some ADP. In my recent drafting over the last couple of weeks, I have struggled to see many edges in ADP as it feels rather repetitive lately. The biggest riser this week is Tim Patrick, who continues to get solid reports out of Denver media and is up nearly a round. DeVante Parker is next up, and with his new contract a week ago, his ADP continues to rise. We are seeing small rises from valuable depth pieces in Taysom Hill, Terrace Marshall, and Kenneth Gainwell. Diontae Johnson and David Montgomery are this week's top-half-of-drafts biggest risers as we see that their ADP might have been wrong and is currently adjusting to a more stable position.
We always want to be aware of what players are on the rise and why they might be on the rise. There is still a lot of value in these types of players, even though their ADP is on the rise. I would say players that were last-round picks and are moving up into rounds 16 and 17 might be players I want to back off of some and look for alternatives in similar situations that might not have been identified by drafters as risers just yet. For me, that is Parker and Marshall on this list as those are two players that maybe if you haven't been drafting in the last round, you might have missed out on the value as they continue to rise.
The players on this list that I want to continue to draft at a value are Taysom Hill, Kenneth Gainwell, Romeo Doubs, and Kyler Murray. The reason for that is the current price and the upside that they all have make them easy clicks to build out a solid roster construction.
TOP 10 ADP FALLERS
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