Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 7.
Upper Left – Underdogs in Potential Shootouts: These teams are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate average, making them strong candidates for potential shootouts. The higher the dotted line between teams, the higher the game total. In Week 7, no game total comes close to the Dallas-Washington matchup at 53.5. Players on both sides of this game should be extremely popular. The big unknown is whether CeeDee Lamb, who is expected to return, picks up right where he left off or needs a week or two to get his legs back under him. The second-highest total on the slate belongs to the Colts-Chargers game, a decent spot for Jonathan Taylor as long as Indianapolis does not fall behind early.
Upper Right – Favorites with High Totals: These teams are favored and projected to score above average, making them strong plays for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts here often favor running backs. The Chiefs are getting healthier and have the second-highest team total (28.5) on the main slate. Can you go to Rashee Rice in his first week back from suspension? Washington is coming off a tough Monday Night Football loss but has the week's highest team total of 29.0 against a Cowboys defense that is getting wrecked on a weekly basis.
Bottom Right – Favorites with Low Totals: Teams in this quadrant are favored but projected to score below average. Running backs can still benefit from positive game scripts, but passing games carry risk with low totals. This quadrant is especially interesting this week because we do not necessarily need a high total to get excited about Quinshon Judkins and Rico Dowdle in matchups where their teams are favored.
Bottom Left – Underdogs with Low Totals: Teams here are underdogs and projected to score below average. Exposure should be limited to players you have a firm conviction about.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
One way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the best matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
With six weeks of data behind us, we can also start to draw firmer conclusions about which defenses are weakest against each position. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production (FanDuel scoring). For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points above expectation. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are included in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 7 expected to outperform versus their 2025 scoring average and how many points above expectation their opponent allows to each position.
Cleveland: The Browns in Week 7 are a good example of why I like the idea of calculating a scoring boost for each team. The Browns' 21.8 team total doesn't leap off the page, but given their scoring average to date, it's actually a huge number and a 59% boost over their season average. It suggests we should expect their top offensive weapons to perform much better than normal. Quinshon Judkins had exactly 25 opportunities (carries plus targets) in both Week 4 and Week 5, but just 13 on a 40% snap share against the Steelers in Week 6. Some of that decrease in playing time and opportunity was related to the game script. For what might be the first—and possibly only—time in 2026, the Browns are actually favored. It's a plum matchup for Judkins against a Miami defense allowing 4.1 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs.
LA Chargers: As noted in the Slate Overview section, the Chargers-Colts game has shootout potential. That's especially important for the Chargers, who are averaging just 21.2 PPG this season. The matchup sets up well for Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles passing attack.
Washington: The fantasy PPG above expectation numbers leap off the page when it comes to a Dallas defense we should be targeting every week until they show they can stop anybody. Last week, Rico Dowdle romped for 239 yards against the Cowboys. This is a great spot for Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who saw career highs in touches (18) and snap share (66%) on Monday night.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 7 expected to underperform versus their 2025 scoring average and how many points above expectation their opponent allows to each position.
Miami: De'Von Achane has been on a hot streak, but this could be a week to steer clear. Cleveland has been incredibly tough on opposing running backs, especially at home.
NY Giants: After the Giants carved up a strong Eagles defense in prime time, you might expect them to draw some attention in Week 7. But going on the road to face an elite Broncos defense is a tough ask. If you're taking a shot on anyone from this offense, Cam Skattebo makes the most sense. Denver has been a neutral matchup for opposing backs.
Dallas: Everyone saw D'Andre Swift have a strong game against Washington on Monday night, and Javonte Williams stands out in our early PPD projections. However, the matchup with the Commanders looks more favorable for the Dallas passing attack than for the ground game.
FanDuel
Let's take a look at the top options on FanDuel according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II: At age 30, Mahomes is quietly having the best rushing season of his career. He ranks third among quarterbacks with 222 rushing yards, just behind Josh Allen and Justin Fields, and sits second in rushing touchdowns with four, one behind Jalen Hurts. The last time Mahomes faced the Raiders, he threw 46 passes, his highest attempt total since 2022.
Jayden Daniels: In his return from a multi-week knee injury, Daniels ran 10 times for 52 yards, putting to rest any concern about his mobility. He draws a dream matchup against a Cowboys defense allowing 7.5 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing quarterbacks, the highest mark in the league.