Slate Overview
Overreaction Week
Week 2 is often the most exploitable ownership week of the season. A healthy portion of the field will make sweeping judgments based on a single game, treating one data point as proof of a trend. When a player flops in Week 1, his ownership usually craters in Week 2, even if his role, usage, and matchup are exactly what we're looking for in tournaments. Rostering busted chalk the field has abandoned gives you access to ceiling games that fewer entrants will benefit from.
The reverse is also true. Week 1 breakouts attract inflated ownership as if their performances are guaranteed to repeat. But many of last week's spikes were driven by unsustainable efficiency or wonky game scripts, not permanent role changes, making them fragile plays at elevated popularity.
Trust usage, opportunity, and projections over one-week results. Target the players who burned rosters in Week 1 but still project for volume, and be cautious with treating Week 1 results as gospel. Playing against these overreactions is one of the cleanest edges of the entire DFS season.
Top Game Environments
DFS is less about picking players in isolation and more about targeting the games where fantasy scoring can snowball. High totals, fast pace, and exploitable defenses all create environments where multiple players can go off together. Identifying these spots is the foundation for building winning GPP lineups.
Games in bold are lower-total games with the potential for higher than expected scoring. Stacking these games at higher ownership than the field will add leverage to your lineups if they go over their implied totals.
- Jaguars @ Bengals (-3.5) - O/U 49.5
- Eagles (-1.5) @ Chiefs - O/U 46.5
- Bears @ Lions (-5.5) - O/U 46.5
- Bills (-6.5) @ Jets - O/U 46.5
- Broncos (-2.5) @ Colts - O/U 42.5
Identifying Common Roster Construction
Understanding what your opponents are most likely to do is just as important as spotting the best plays. Common roster builds form naturally when popular players are combined into a lineup. Recognizing the "chalky" construction helps us anticipate what the majority of rosters we're up against will look like, and allows us to decide the best ways to build differently for leverage without sacrificing ceiling.
QB: The first question most of our opponents will ask is whether Mac Jones ($4,000) is safe to play at the minimum salary, or if there is enough value elsewhere on the slate to reach Lamar Jackson ($7,000) or Josh Allen ($7,100), whose stellar Sunday Night Football performances are still fresh in everyone’s mind as they head into matchups they're heavily favored to win. While plenty of entrants will roll the dice on Jones’ sketchy track record and pocket the savings, a cluster of heavily targeted, underpriced wide receivers makes spending up at quarterback viable. Expect more lineups to lean toward the security of Jackson or Allen, but we'll see plenty of Jones lineups as well, which will diversify common construction more than most slates.
RB: Christian McCaffrey ($7,500) made us all look silly for worrying about his calf, piling up 142 scrimmage yards on 31 touches (nine receptions) against a stout Seattle defense. He projects as clear chalk in a dome game against the Saints, even with Jones at quarterback. The RB2 in common builds might not be unanimous, but Javonte Williams and Kyren Williams ($6,300) each fit the ideal price point. A $5,800 salary makes Javonte easy to click, especially with Dallas hosting the Giants as 5.5-point favorites and implied to score a healthy 25 points. Kyren is once again the only running back Sean McVay is interested in playing, and the Rams (-5.5) are also heavy favorites on the road in Tennessee.
WR: Spending up to Jackson and McCaffrey requires bargain hunting at wide receiver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,000) only saw a $200 salary increase after leading all receivers in Week 1 with a whopping 56.5% team target share. It's safe to say JSN will (rightfully) be an auto-pick for most of our opponents. Marquise Brown ($5,200) was another huge target earner last week. Kansas City is missing Xavier Worthy, and Rashee Rice is suspended for five more games, which should give the field enough confidence to see if Brown's Week 1 volume can stick. Jackson's popularity at quarterback should land Zay Flowers ($6,200) in chalky builds as an obvious stacking partner. Variations of this construction may include Calvin Ridley ($4,900) at Brown's expense.
TE: Tyler Warren was the focal point of Indianapolis' offense in Week 1, notching nine targets, one rush attempt, and 14.9 DraftKings points in his career debut. $4,500 is too cheap for a tight end with Warren's usage and prospect profile. Harold Fannin Jr. ($3,100) is another low-cost rookie who was frequently targeted in his debut. He may end up more popular than Warren, especially in lineups with expensive quarterbacks.
Flipping the Common Build: Heavy wide receiver spending is this week's clearest path to a contrarian build. Consider starting your lineups with two high-end wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb ($7,800), Puka Nacua ($7,600), Malik Nabers ($7,100), or Ja'Marr Chase ($8,100). You'll maintain upside while being forced to build differently than the majority of your opponents.
Core Targets
Quarterback
Caleb Williams ($5,400) - After watching Green Bay's defense smother Washington on Thursday night, it's probably safe to forgive the Lions for their Week 1 dud at Lambeau. Assuming Detroit's offense gets on track at home against the Bears' middle-of-the-road defense, Williams and the Bears will be point-chasing in Ben Johnson's return to Chicago. In a pair of losses to the Lions last season, Williams scored 26.1 and 22.8 DraftKings points, respectively. He generated 11.8 fantasy points on the ground in the season-opener, which is a good reminder that Williams' 489 rushing yards as a rookie were quietly only 42 fewer than Josh Allen had in 2024.