Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
All the Best Decisions
I know some of you don't want to hear this, but I'm going to tell you anyhow: The best decisions don't always yield the best results.
As much as we'd like to think our process in building lineups is "the determining factor" to our success, that's not true.
Our process in building lineups is "a determining factor."
Setting logical lineups based on the best possible information is always the goal -- it's our sole contribution to this enterprise.
Beyond that, we're not on the field executing plays, we're not calling plays, we're not blocking or tackling anybody. We're not deciding who has the hot hand or when they have it. Nor are we taping ankles, performing concussion tests, or pulling players out of games due to health, performance, or other issues.
That's okay, because the reality is, there comes a point we're . . .
Just a Passenger
The phrase "just a passenger" in NASCAR refers to moments, often during a crash or loss of control, where a driver has minimal ability to steer or react, becoming helpless as the car dictates the outcome.
We've talked about volatility and variance all year. Little did we know it would manifest so fiercely in Week 16.
Yet here we are, dealing with the aftermath.
It reminds us that process still matters -- but context matters just as much, and sometimes more.
For those of you who fell by the wayside, we'll have all offseason to go over lessons learned and how we can adjust our approaches to better deal with them.
For those heading into Week 17 Championship contests despite the injuries and unexpected outcomes, it's time to figure out how to best deal with the circumstances at hand in order to bring home the title.
Of course, the most difficult results to get our heads around are the ones that make the most sense -- in hindsight . . .
Should Have Seen it Coming
Some players seem matchup-proof; some matchups are apparently player-proof. There are also players we had bad feelings about -- whether due to health or matchup concerns -- but we ignored our hunches on. All of those are difficult to live with. Let's look at some of them . . .
Matchups Matter
Justin Herbert rode a severe slump into Sunday's game in Dallas. He hadn't scored 20 or more fantasy points since Week 8.
From Weeks 10 through 15, Herbert was QB27 in total points (with 55.4); his 11.1 points per game over five games in that window ranked 32nd at the position.
But the Cowboys had allowed the most fantasy points per game to QBs and to WRs on the season going into this one.
Nonetheless, I was skeptical.
While some point to the surgically-repaired broken hand that Herbert's been playing with since Week 13, the issues have had more to do with pass protection and injuries along the offensive line than anything else. Specifically, it was left tackle Joe Alt's season-ending ankle injury, suffered in Week 9 against the Titans, that led directly to Herbert's skid.
Until Sunday, Herbert hadn't topped 12 points since Week 10.
But I didn't give the matchup its due.
Herbert posted a season-high 30.2 fantasy points. He threw a pair of touchdowns and ran in another.
Still, a single performance doesn't prove the Chargers' offense is back in the long term. The team took advantage of one of the league's worst defenses in Dallas. This week's game against a stingy (and probably angry after last week's showing against the Raiders) Houston defense will be a better indicator of whether this offensive improvement is for real.
It's also not a matchup that has me interested in chasing Herbert's points this week.
Last year, the Chargers lost to the Texans in the wild-card round of the playoffs, 32-12. For the game, Herbert completed 14 of 32 passes for 242 yards, one touchdown, and four interceptions. He scored 5.7 fantasy points.
No, Really . . . Matchups Matter
As NFL.com's Nick Shook noted, "Since returning from concussion protocol, Jaxson Dart hasn't been as consistent or frequently thrilling as he was prior."
But Sunday represented a new low for Dart, who was confounded by Brian Flores' disguise-heavy defense. Dart frequently appeared uncomfortable, threw a handful of on-the-run passes short of his intended targets, and succumbed to the avalanche of Minnesota's pass rush so often that it was only fitting his final snap resulted in a sack.
Dart ultimately went 7-of-13 passing for 33 yards with an interception -- and only threw for 2 yards in the first half.
Because of the sacks, he finished with 13 net passing yards.
His fantasy finish was even worse. Dart was QB40 -- yes, 40 -- on the week with zero points.
While this might be a surprising outcome, we should have realized something like this was possible.
The Giants certainly did.
Knowing that Dart would likely struggle to identify Flores' complex coverages and schemes, the Giants did not attempt a pass until their 17th offensive play. That hadn't happened in the NFL since 2017.
But what about fantasy investors?
We knew this matchup was daunting. Since Week 9, Flores' defense has been more effective than any other at limiting fantasy production by opposing quarterbacks. They faced Lamar Jackson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, Jayden Daniels, and Dak Prescott during that stretch, and that group scored a combined 51.8 fantasy points -- or an average of 8.6 points.
On the season, the Vikings have allowed the second-fewest points (12.4) per game to the position.
I was hopeful that Dart's rushing floor would keep him in QB1 territory. I was sadly mistaken. Fortunately, Dart gets a softer Week 17 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Still, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft suggests, interim coach Mike Kafka's conservative usage limits Dart's upside somewhat . . .
Matchups Matter, Unless They Don't
If you read my In and Out: Week 16 Edition, you know two things:
1. It wasn't my best week.
2. I had no bigger miss than Cleveland tight end Harold Fannin Jr.
I fell into what couldn't have been a more obvious trap.
Of course, I've been leveraging Buffalo's defensive superpower, which has been shutting down opposing tight ends.
Heading into Sunday's game against Fannin and the Browns, the Bills had allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Their 6.9 points per game average was a full point lower than the next best defense, the Falcons.
Only two tight ends all season had scored more than 7.5 fantasy points in a game against the Bills so far this season. It seemed reasonable to believe Fannin would be the next to get the Buffalo shut-down treatment.
Except Fannin isn't a traditional tight end.
He's a uniquely talented hybrid who gives head coach Kevin Stefanski a dangerous and versatile weapon.
So it's not a huge surprise that Fannin had a pair of touchdowns against the Bills, one rushing and one receiving.
And it probably shouldn't have been a surprise when he finished the week as TE2 with 19.5 points.
It's not just the creative and varied usage. It's the volume.
In the five games since Shedeur Sanders took over the starting quarterback role, Fannin has averaged 5.2 receptions and 55.8 yards per game. He leads the Browns in receptions (70), receiving yards (701), and receiving touchdowns (5).
Those 70 catches are now the franchise record for catches by a rookie, surpassing Kevin Johnson's 66 receptions in 1999.
For our purposes, Fannin has 177.4 fantasy points for the season, seventh most all-time by a rookie tight end.
And yes, I'm adding a matchup-proof note to my Fannin outlook for the 2026 season -- but not until I lock him into every lineup possible for a Week 17 game against the Steelers.
Consider the Source
I had a question about Packers running back Josh Jacobs on Bluesky last week: "Would you play Emanuel Wilson over Jacobs, knowing Jacobs may be limited?"
The question referenced a tweet by NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.
Few players in the NFL are tougher than Josh Jacobs. He was on a pitch count last week and probably will be again tonight. But he’s playing. https://t.co/IYbqBhVnBI
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) December 20, 2025
The "pitch count" talk was obviously the concern.
But Pelissero noted that was also the case in Week 14, when Jacobs was on the field for 55 percent of the team's offensive snaps.
He also finished that Week 15 game against the Broncos as RB6, with 23.2 points.
Jacobs acknowledged he re-injured his knee early in Denver, but stayed in and made some of his best plays of the year.
Jacobs also told The Athletic's Max Schneidman that he and Matt LaFleur have 'kinda clashed' about playing through injury several times since he arrived in Green Bay.
The star running back added: "Every time, I had a pretty good game."
And that's what hooked me. I bought into the player's confidence and bravado.
Sure enough, as he did in Denver, Jacobs played through his questionable designation against the Bears.
But this time, he seemed limited as he carried the ball just 12 times for 36 yards. Jacobs also lost a fumble in the third quarter.
He only played two snaps after that without touching the ball.
Whatever the case, the result was a 6.8-point finish in a vital week for his investors.
LaFleur was asked about the diminished role after the game.
"We all know what this guy has been dealing with," the coach said. "He's been fighting to go back in there. I thought [Emanuel Wilson] was running pretty well, so we kind of were rolling with that, but certainly Josh is as competitive as anybody I've been around in terms of his ability to get himself in position to play."
But he's also hurt. And apparently, a less-than-reliable source of information. At least for our purposes.
Also, Wilson should be high on your radar in case the Packers decide to give Jacobs the week off . . .
Never Would Have Imagined
While it's easy to beat ourselves up after decisions like the ones outlined above, there are some outcomes that still don't make sense days after the fact. I'm going to give myself more of a pass on these -- even as I take the lessons learned to heart.
Momentum Matters
Trevor Lawrence went into the Jaguars' Week 16 battle in Denver on a serious roll.
He'd thrown for 225-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games. He had 14 touchdown passes (to six interceptions) and four rushing scores in the Jaguars' previous seven games.
With his 44.3-point output against the Jets in Week 15, Lawrence boasted a position-leading 102.5 points in the four games since Week 12.
All that said, Lawrence's massive four-game run came against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets.
Before he went on that run, Lawrence was held to 11.8 points by the Texans in Week 10 and 15 points by the Chargers in Week 11.
Last Sunday, he faced a Broncos defense that had allowed the third-fewest touchdowns (14) and sixth-fewest fantasy points per game (14.0) to opposing quarterbacks. They had allowed just one quarterback (Dart in Week 7) to finish a game on their home field with more than 14 fantasy points.
Lawrence didn't care. He just rolled on.
The fifth-year man completed 23 of his 36 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns and rushed six times for 20 yards and another score in Jacksonville's 34-20 win.
His position-leading 31.2 fantasy points were shocking considering the difficulty of the matchup.
That bodes well going forward.
Lawrence now has 18 touchdowns (16 passing, two rushing) during the Jaguars' six-game winning streak, including 10 in the past two games. He has 26 passing touchdowns this season, making him the only player in franchise history to throw 25 or more touchdowns twice.
For our purposes, he's been QB1 overall since Week 10. But his work in Weeks 15 and 16, with at least three touchdown passes and at least one touchdown run, as our playoffs began, makes him a candidate for 2026 Fantasy Football MVP.
It's a distinction he could nail down in Week 17 when he faces a Colts defense that just allowed Brock Purdy to toss five touchdown passes against them on Monday Night Football . . .