In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. That isn't necessarily an enjoyable process. Some weeks, like Week 1, are downright embarrassing. Week 2 was a mixed bag. Week 3? Well, it won't be my best, although we're starting to see more normalization and a little less variance.
Nonetheless, my picks last week reflect the variance more than the normalization. Let's see how it went:
- I was in on Lions QB Jared Goff, who went into Week 3 with the most touchdown passes in the league. Sadly, Detroit's running backs ran roughshod over the Ravens, and all Goff had to do was keep things on schedule. I predicted a QB1 finish. He was QB20. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Chargers QB Justin Herbert, who went into Sunday's game against the Broncos on a serious roll. I predicted Denver would be a daunting enough matchup to keep Herbert, who was projected to finish as QB5, from meeting that expectation. He was QB13. A hit. ✅
- I was in on Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III, whose projection rose from RB19 to RB10 after Zach Charbonnet was ruled out due to a foot injury. I stuck with the updated numbers and predicted Walker would still beat them. Even with Cam Skattebo putting up a surprising RB5 finish Sunday night, I was still on point with this one -- until the aforementioned Lions duo both posted top-5 finishes in Baltimore. Their combined success pushed Walker down to RB10. Ties don't go to the runner here. A miss. ❌
- I was out on Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving, who was projected to finish as RB7, going up against a fairly tough Jets defense. I predicted Irving would finish outside the top 10. He was RB16. Another hit. ✅
- I was in on Steelers WR DK Metcalf, who was projected to finish as WR24 in a soft matchup against the Patriots. I predicted a top-20 finish. Metcalf was WR32. Another miss. ❌
- I was out on Saints WR Chris Olave, whose Footballguys projection called for a WR26 finish. I predicted he would fall outside the top 30. He was WR18. A miss. ❌
- I was in on Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr., despite previously swearing to myself I would never be in on him again. I thought the matchup was fortuitous. The Panthers thought otherwise and shut the Falcons out. Needless to say, my prediction that Pitts would surpass his TE10 projection didn't come to pass. I knew better. He was TE19. This was a painful miss. ❌
- I was out on Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson. I had concerns about the passing volume against the Bengals, especially with Carson Wentz taking over at QB. I predicted that Hockenson, projected to finish as TE11, would fall outside TE1 territory. He was TE5. A miss. ❌
As for my Outlier of the Week, Kayshon Boutte had finished as a WR2 in four out of the previous five games. I expected him to return to that form in a favorable matchup against the Steelers. Beating his WR50 projection wasn't good enough for me; I went with a WR3 finish. It didn't matter. Boutte finished as WR72, another miss. ❌
I never had a chance, and I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe Detroit's running backs -- for another disappointing finish. Of course, my misses mean the Footballguys projections team was on point, as usual.
Here's where we stand after three weeks:
- Week 3: 2 hits; 7 misses.
- Season: 9 hits; 18 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. I lost ground this week, and we're currently sitting at .333. Let's see if we can't do better in Week 4.
But first, repeat after me: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not what you're looking for at the moment, the Footballguys Rankings/Projections await.
Quarterback
In: Jordan Love, Green Bay @ Dallas
While all eyes will be on Micah Parsons in his first game in Dallas since he was traded to the Packers earlier this month, fantasy investors should be sneaking some peeks at Love.
The Packers are coming off a brutal loss in Cleveland. Love threw for just 183 yards. His 11.1 fantasy points were good for a QB25 finish.
But without Parsons, the Cowboys' defense is struggling.
Footballguy Devin Knotts wrote in his Week 4 Passing Matchups, "Expectations were modest with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence gone, but three weeks in, this looks like the league's worst pass unit."
In fact, no defense has given up more points to quarterbacks after three weeks. So far, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson, and Caleb Williams have all exceeded 24 points against Dallas. In addition to the most fantasy points per game allowed to the position, Dallas has allowed the most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL.
And, as FantasyPros' Derek Brown pointed out, minus Parsons, Dallas is 15th in pressure rate, so Love should have more time in the pocket this week.
Meanwhile, as NFL Network's Michael F. Florio notes, this is the Sunday Night Football game -- and Love has averaged 23 fantasy points per game on Sunday nights since becoming the Packers' starter in 2023.
Bottom line: Sure, the Packers might like to run, but this matchup opens the door to Love outperforming his Footballguys QB13, 18.12-point projection. I say Love lands in QB1 territory.
Out: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis @ LA Rams
Here we are again. I was out on Jones in Week 1 based primarily on his long track record of coming up short when given opportunities to shine.
I missed on Jones that week, and was wise enough to leave him in this space -- even though I remained a bit skeptical, especially with his Week 2 matchup against the Broncos.
The truth is, Jones has been fantastic through three games. He's QB4 on the season, scoring an average of 22.7 points per game. As I explained in this week's Fantasy Notebook, Jones' success this season has been based on multiple factors, not the least of which is avoiding the kind of mistakes that have highlighted his career in the past.
Heading into the 2025 season, Jones had 73 turnovers in 70 career games.
He hasn't turned the ball over this year; in fact, Jones threw his third touchdown pass of the season against the Titans. According to the NFL, he is the first player in the Super Bowl era to throw at least three touchdowns and run for at least three touchdowns without turning the ball over in the first three games of a season.
So why am I out on him this week?
Well, this isn't a total fade, just a contrarian angle against his QB1 pricing.
And here's why: As Brown pointed out this week, the Rams have allowed the tenth-fewest passing yards per game and the tenth-lowest success rate per dropback. In addition, the Colts have allowed sacks at the lowest rate in the NFL -- partly because they have played two of the five worst teams in the league in terms of pressure rate. And while they did a good job against the Broncos, who are tied for first in pressure rate (50.4 percent), can they sustain that success?
The Rams rank fifth in that category and, as Florio suggests, this seems like another big test for Jones.
Of course, Jalen Hurts showed us last week that this pass defense is absolutely beatable, and Jones has the skill players around him to succeed. But believing the Colts will continue to lean more heavily on Jonathan Taylor for another week isn't a reach to me.
Bottom line: This is all about trying to leverage a reasonable Footballguys projection in a tough matchup. Jones is projected to finish as QB10 with 19.15 points. I say he falls short of the top 10.