In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
But first, let me stress: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It can be a painful experience, even on good weeks. It's downright miserable after others (see In and Out: Week 1 Edition). Week 2 was a mixed bag. And that's no surprise. The NFL is still in full variance mode. I explained it at length in this week's Fantasy Notebook.
My picks here demonstrate it. Let's see how it went:
- I was in on Patriots QB Drake Maye going up against the Dolphins. I predicted a top-10 finish. The second-year starter was QB3 with 26.3 points. A hit. ✅
- I was out on Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield. I thought the Houston defense would present difficulties -- and they did. But they could have been a little tougher. I predicted Mayfield would fall short of both his QB13, 17.83-point projection. He did half that, winding up as QB14 but still scoring 19.9 points. Half isn't enough. A miss. ❌
- I was in on Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins, who was projected to finish as RB29 with 11.27 points. He surpassed that in a tougher matchup in Week 1 and I predicted he'd exceed both numbers in Indy. He finished as RB17 with 15.5 points. Another hit. ✅
- I was out on Chicago's D'Andre Swift going up against the Lions. Volume wasn't an issue in Week 1, so I was taking my chances here. His Footballguys Projection called for an RB22 finish with 13.28 points. I predicted he would fall outside RB2 territory. He did not. Swift was RB16 with 15.9 points. A miss. ❌
- I was in on 49ers wideout Ricky Pearsall facing the Saints in New Orleans. I thought Mac Jones would be serviceable replacing Brock Purdy, enough so that I expected Pearsall to breeze past his WR30, 12.9-point projection. I didn't take into account Jauan Jennings, coming in on limited practice with a questionable designation, having as strong a showing as he did. But Jennings was just one reason Pearsall fell short of my prediction for a WR2 finish. Another miss. ❌
- I was out on Bills receiver Keon Coleman, going up against Sauce Gardner and a tough Jets pass defense. His Footballguys Projection called for a WR33 finish with 12.63 points. I predicted Coleman would fall outside WR3 territory. He finished well outside that range, finishing as WR74 with 5.6 points. A hit. ✅
- I was in on a Mark Andrews rebound with the Ravens taking on the Browns. I knew his TE7, 9.81-point projection was high. I liked the matchup. The matchup wasn't enough. The veteran finished as TE55 with 1.4 fantasy points. A massive miss. ❌
- I was out on Kansas City's Travis Kelce going up against an Eagles defense that kept him in check back in February. Kelce was projected to finish as TE5 with 10.69 points; I predicted he would fall outside the top five. He was TE10 with 10.1 points. A hit. ✅
As for my Outlier of the Week, Cleveland rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr., who was coming off an impressive Week 1, went into Week 2 projected to finish as TE17 with 7.92 points. I thought this one was a gimme, and it was. He finished as TE12 with 9.8 points. Great job by Fannin, but all the credit goes to me (hey, it doesn't happen all the time; please allow me to revel in the occasional win). ✅
Here's where we stand after two weeks:
- Week 2: 5 hits; 4 misses.
- Season: 7 hits; 11 misses.
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to hit .500 on my predictions. I made up some ground this week, and I'm batting well over .300! Let's see if we can't get closer to the target in Week 3.
But first, one more caveat: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, the Footballguys Rankings/Projections await.
Quarterback
In: Jared Goff, Detroit @ Baltimore
As ESPN.com's Eric Woodyard pointed out this week, the Lions are tied for the NFL's most receiving touchdowns. This despite the fact that a very tough Packers defense held the Lions to just 13 points -- with one Goff touchdown pass -- in Week 1.
Of course, Goff and Detroit scored five touchdowns during the 52-21 Week 2 beatdown versus Chicago -- All-Pro WR Amon-Ra St. Brown scored three of those. But Goff will also be throwing to Jameson Williams, rookie wideout Isaac TeSlaa, tight end Sam LaPorta, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs this season.
Detroit was able to set a franchise record by averaging 8.8 yards per play on offense against the Bears and produced a game with at least 500 total net yards, five passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns for the first time in franchise history.
With so many offensive playmakers, Goff could continue this trend.
The concern here is obvious: The Lions are on the road this week.
Goff hasn't been at his best on the road, nor has he been exclusively horrible.
In fact, last year he was pretty darned good. The Lions won six of their seven regular-season road games in 2024. Goff achieved a 79.5 percent completion percentage in those games, demonstrating remarkable accuracy. He was downright dominant in games against blitz-happy defenses at Dallas and Minnesota in Weeks 6 (QB4 vs. Cowboys) and 7 (QB9 vs. Vikings). He was QB11 in a Week 17 win at San Francisco with three touchdown throws against the Niners.
This week, he'll be going against a Ravens defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards through two weeks. FantasyPros' Derrick Brown notes that Baltimore has generated the fourth-lowest pressure rate, so Goff should have all day in the pocket to dice up the secondary. Plus, as NFL Network's Michael F. Florio pointed out, with Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Co. on the other side, the Lions will need to put up points.
Bottom line: Goff is projected to finish as QB13 with 17.76 points. I'm looking for some Monday night fireworks with Goff finishing as a QB1.
Out: Justin Herbert, LA Chargers vs. Denver
I'm not gonna lie. This one pains me a bit. As I noted in this week's Faceoff: 5 Questions, 2 Experts, head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have gone against considerable run-heavy history by relying more on Herbert than on their running backs over the first two games.
Evidence of that? The Chargers didn't attempt a rush until 4:52 left in the first quarter on Monday night. Against the Chiefs in Week 1, they had Herbert close out a win in the fourth quarter. Rather than leaning on first-round running back Omarion Hampton, the Chargers -- who ranked 28th in passing attempts and 11th in rushing attempts in 2024 -- called passing plays on 11 of 15 snaps to ice the game.
Further evidence of that? Herbert's stat line through two games: 72 percent completions, 560 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions -- with two wins against AFC West opponents. By the way, the high completion percentage isn't because he's checking the ball down and throwing underneath a lot. His average depth of target is 9.6 yards, the second-highest total in the league among qualified quarterbacks.
For our purposes, Herbert is QB4 with 24.4 points per game with at least two touchdown throws and 30 yards rushing in both games.
It's been great. It will be great going forward, as well.
Still, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft suggested, this is a week to fade him.
Denver's secondary allowed Daniel Jones to throw for 316 yards in Indianapolis last week, but they've still held opposing quarterbacks to the third-lowest completion percentage (56.5 percent), third-worst Total QBR (41.7), and seventh-worst rate of passing yards per dropback (5.2). They entered 2025 regarded as one of the most formidable defenses against the pass, and one bad week against Jones and the Colts shouldn't dramatically change that.
Beyond that, finding places to leverage the Footballguys projections, which is basically the whole idea of this column, isn't easy. Our team is remarkably accurate. So I'm not looking to create a profile in courage here, I'm looking for a slight edge.
Bottom line: Our projection has Herbert finishing as QB5 with 20.01 points. As noted above, with as good a game as you'll see against this Broncos' defense, Jones finished as QB7 (with 22.2 points). That supports my belief that Herbert is going to have a hard time hitting his projected finish. I'll predict he falls short of QB5.