The end of the season locks in hard around contract incentives and milestone chases. We love to dive deep into these in our fantasy football world, but it is fair to wonder what they mean on the field. The Buccaneers' celebration when Mike Evans hit 1,000 yards at the end of 2024 should give us a good indication. The Monday Night broadcast discussing Kendrick Bourne's incentive chase and noting that Brock Purdy was aware of the numbers entering the game further drove the point home. We look at passing attacks across the NFL, with a special emphasis on significant numbers.
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 20 | Zay Flowers | 7 | 7-84-0 | 35.00% | 49 | 89% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 5 | 4-41-0 | 25.00% | 20 | 36% | ||
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 2-21-0 | 15.00% | 24 | 44% | ||
| NY Giants | 13 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 3-19-0 | 46.15% | 55 | 98% |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 1-8-0 | 15.38% | 44 | 79% | ||
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 2 | 2-7-0 | 15.38% | 35 | 63% | ||
| Philadelphia | 29 | A.J. Brown | 12 | 9-95-0 | 41.38% | 61 | 87% |
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 6-42-1 | 27.59% | 60 | 86% | ||
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 3-32-1 | 10.34% | 61 | 87% | ||
| Tampa Bay | 25 | Mike Evans | 9 | 5-31-1 | 36.00% | 42 | 66% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 5-30-0 | 24.00% | 41 | 64% | ||
| Jalen McMillan | 3 | 2-15-0 | 12.00% | 34 | 53% |
-
With a 78-1,043-2 line, Flowers is closing in on the second most receiving yards in a Ravens season, needing 158 yards to top Mike Jackson's 1,201 from 1996. Mark Andrews holds the team record, 1,361 in 2021. Andrews also holds the record for receptions, with 107. Flowers's 78 catches rank eighth in team history; he can catch Derrick Mason and Dennis Pitta for fourth with eight catches, while third-place Marquise Brown is 13 away. The Ravens look unlikely to have Lamar Jackson against the Packers, potentially turning to Tyler Huntley with the season on the line.
-
The Giants' offense struggled badly against a Vikings defense that has played exceptionally well against the pass. Robinson will be a free agent following the season. He needs 99 yards to hit 1,000. Robinson has suggested he plans to see what is available on the open market. At 25, he should be highly coveted, as teams are desperate to add receiving talent. Jaxson Dart's 1,835 passing yards rank third on the Giants' rookie passing yardage list. Daniel Jones holds the record, with 3,02,7, while Charlie Conerly is second, 340 yards ahead of Dart at 2,175. Dart's 13 touchdown passes are tied with Phil Simms for fourth on the rookie list, with Jones (24) and Conerly (22) on top. The Giants are currently projected to hold the first pick in the draft, and early rumors suggest they would consider Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, despite Dart's positive rookie year returns. That could change; they face the only other 2-13 team, the Raiders, this weekend, then close with the 6-8-1 Cowboys. Johnson is one of nine tight ends in team history to post a 45+ - 500+ - 5+ line.
-
Brown and Smith are the only Eagles teammates to hit 1,000 yards in the same season, doing so in 2022 and 2023. They are close to the mark again, with Brown needing 65 yards and Smith needing 69. Goedert has 10 touchdowns, tying Pete Retzlaff for the most by a tight end in team history. One more would push him into a tie with multiple players for the fifth most in team history, regardless of position. Hurts 24 passing touchdowns are a career high. He ranks fourth on the team's passing yardage list. His 109 touchdown passes are sixth; he can jump to fourth, with Carson Wentz four ahead at 113, while Norm Snead has 111.
-
The Buccaneers have their full complement of weapons for the first time in 2025, but Baker Mayfield has continued to struggle, and consecutive disappointing losses have put them in a tight spot. Emeka Egbuka is 90 yards from 1,000. With 59 catches and 910 yards, he has a chance at the second-best rookie season for the Buccaneers, needing nine catches and 141 yards to get to Mike Evans' 68 and 1,051. That said, his role with Evans and Godwin back likely does not support that production over the final two games.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share
| Team | Throws | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | Snaps | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 34 | Bijan Robinson | 11 | 7-92-1 | 32.35% | 54 | 70% |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | 9 | 7-57-1 | 26.47% | 67 | 87% | ||
| Drake London | 8 | 3-27-0 | 23.53% | 53 | 69% | ||
| Jacksonville | 35 | Parker Washington | 10 | 6-145-1 | 28.57% | 39 | 56% |
| Jakobi Meyers | 8 | 4-45-0 | 22.86% | 60 | 86% | ||
| Brenton Strange | 7 | 5-39-1 | 20.00% | 52 | 74% |
-
London returned after missing a month with a knee injury. Robinson joined William Andrews as the only Falcons running backs to top 70 receptions and 700 yards. He needs 10 receptions to tie Andrews' team record for a running back, and his 776 yards are the most for a Falcons back. Pitts needs 146 yards for his second 1,000-yard season. His 1,026 yards in 2021 are the most by any Falcons tight end. With 80 receptions, he needs three to tie Tony Gonzalez for the second most by a Falcons tight end and needs 13 to tie Gonzalez's team position record. Kirk Cousins needs 217 passing yards to move past Drew Bledsoe for the 19th most in NFL history. He is four touchdown passes from an even 300 in his career, a mark that would tie John Elway for 14th on the career list.
-
Meyers has seen at least six targets in each of his last six games. Over that stretch, his 17-game pace is 79.3 catches, 1,017 yards, and 8.5 touchdowns. The Jaguars kept Meyers off the market with a contract extension, giving them a top trio of Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter, with Washington and Strange rounding out a young and talented receiving group. Trevor Lawrence has a career high of 26 touchdown passes and has a chance for his third 4,000-yard season, needing 511 yards over the last two games. His 26 touchdowns are the second most in Jaguars history; Blake Bortles holds the team record with 35.
Offenses with Top 1 Option > 25% and Top 3 < 70% Target Share
