Dynasty Movement: Week 4

Three weeks down and coincidences have safely become trends. Many teams are navigating injuries, which create new opportunities. Others are struggling with former Round 1 picks who may be due for a new opportunity. 

Dynasty staffers Corey Spala, Huthinson Brown, Jeff Blaylock, Meng Song, Matthew Montgomery, and Darin Tietgen give us their Dynasty rankings movement.

Dynasty Movement at Wide Receiver

Josh Downs, Indianapolis

Song - The Colts placed Alec Pierce on IR due to a heel injury, yet another complication following his ankle surgery back in March. Pierce could return midseason, but it's unclear when or how effective he'll be when he returns. For now, that leaves Josh Downs as the de facto No. 1 wide receiver in Indianapolis. That's led to 9 and 11 targets in the last 2 games, respectively, both team-highs.

Downs is the WR23 in PPR points per game over this span, and that's without having scored any touchdowns yet. He's a high-floor WR2 for now, and possibly more if Daniel Jones gradually improves coming off the Achilles injury. Downs is a great under-the-radar buy for a second-round rookie pick for contending dynasty teams.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville

Blaylock - I had high hopes that this year would more closely resemble his scintillating rookie season than his clunker of a sophomore campaign. So far, it's looking like he's picking up where he left off as a fantasy WR4 at best. He's well behind Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers in the pecking order, and he's losing opportunities. Thomas has played in less than 40 percent of snaps in two of the three games this season. Coming into the year, he played more than 60 percent of snaps in all but two games. Worse, he's yielding playing time to sixth-round rookie Josh Cameron, which is about as damning (Sorry, Joe) an outcome that one could imagine for a former first-round pick that once posted 1,282 receiving yards. 

Montgomery - Unfortunately for Thomas managers, there’s a problem brewing in Jacksonville, and it’s not that the Jaguars are underperforming. This team has a clear identity that’s working on the field, and Thomas isn’t part of it. Trade rumors will start to swirl, so he’s a good hold. He’s just not a startable player in any format right now. Unless something changes, he’s off-limits for me.

Adonai Mitchell, NY Jets

Blaylock - He's doubtful for Week 4 with a finger injury, but Mitchell has emerged as a viable fantasy starter. He had back-to-back 60-yard receiving games before his injury. Mitchell is among the top 20 wide receivers in target share (23 percent), and his 15.7-yard average depth of target ranks eighth among wide receivers with at least 10 targets. Unlike last season, when Mitchell posted a sub-45 percent catch rate, Geno Smith's passes have been much more accurate, and Mitchell's catch rate has risen above 60 percent, which is solid for the depth of many of those targets. Our Jeff Bell has him ranked WR40, considerably higher than I do at WR61, but I'm moving him in that direction as he's cemented a productive role in an improving Jets offense.

Quentin Johnston, LA Chargers

Blaylock - Here we go again. Over three weeks, Johnston has dropped one out of every five targets, the worst mark in the league among wide receivers with at least 10 targets. He now has about 18 career drops, depending on the data source. The current WR86 in PPR scoring, Johnston continues to see heavy snap shares, exceeding 80 percent in his last two games, and he leads the team in targets, thanks in part to Ladd McConkey's injury. But he's doing very little with that volume; he's the WR86 in PPR scoring through three weeks. I hoped a new offensive coordinator and Johnston's renewed confidence could lead to a Year 3 breakout, but it's not happening. I'm well above consensus on him, but not for much longer.

Caleb Douglas, Miami

Montgomery -  The injury Douglas suffered killed the hype train for now, but don’t ignore what we saw in his limited action. He was showing signs of a true number-one receiver in an offense that just lost its best weapon. When Douglas returns, he’ll be on a team that will trail a lot. He showed burst in a small sample and carried that preseason hype into real results. That’s enough for me to keep him on the radar.

Matthew Golden, Green Bay

Spala - Golden has taken on a true WR1 role. He has totaled 30 targets through three games, with an 83% route share and 25% target share. He is on pace for 170 targets this season. I have moved Golden up to WR24.

​Brown - After a bummer of a rookie campaign, Golden has burst out of the gate as the PPR WR13, racking up 95, 58, and 100 receiving yards in his first three contests. Josh Jacobs could return at any time, but for now, the Packers are thrust into a pass-first offense with little talent at running back, leaving opportunity for this receiving room to keep shining. It appears we are officially witnessing the dawn of Golden’s breakout.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore

Spala - Flowers has played two games and has totaled 10 receptions for 234 yards. He has not played a full-time role, averaging 31.1% offensive snaps. When he is on the field, he is getting the ball. Flowers leads targets per route run and ranks second in expected points added per target. His production and efficiency metrics make a strong case for him as the best receiver through three weeks. I have moved Flowers up to WR12.

Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh

Brown - Three weeks into the season, the leader of Pittsburgh’s passing attack, leading in both receptions and receiving yards, is neither DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., nor Pat Freiermuth, but rather Roman Wilson. The former Michigan product, written off as a secondary roster piece entering the year, is asserting himself as a focal point in the Steelers' passing game. Let’s just hope that drop that turned into an interception in week three doesn’t completely ruin his trajectory. 

Chris Olave, New Orleans

Tietgen - Piggybacking on my Tyler Shough callout, Olave is also a big-time upgrade for me. Somehow Olave is still just 26 years old even though it seems like he's been in the league for a long time (and hurt a lot). Now that he seems to be healthy, he's garnering double-digit targets in each of the first three games of the season. Shough seems locked on to Olave in the entire route tree. Olave has always been a good deep threat, but has expanded his game to flourish in the shorter routes as well. Outside of the "big guns" (Chase, JSN, Puka), Olave is in the next tier of dynasty wideouts in my book.

Denzel Boston, Cleveland

Tietgen - Did you realize Boston is the WR14 right now in 0.5PPR formats? It took Deshaun Watson some time to find his stride, and while I'm not saying he'll go back to his monstrous seasons from way back when, if he keeps finding Boston, this rookie could really pop against the right opponent. Boston has the prototypical NFL wideout body: 6'4" and 212 lbs.; big, fast, and physical. He came into the NFL ready to produce. As with any rookie, though, there will be some slower weeks (like last week against the Panthers). Additionally, fellow rookie KC Concepcion Jr. is a target hound that could infringe on Boston's production. But he's still a dynasty upward mover for me.

Mike Evans & Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco

Song - It might be time to get while the getting's good on the 49ers wide receivers. 33-year-old Mike Evans appears to have avoided a serious injury against the Cardinals and is just day-to-day with a rib strain. However, this trend is concerning, with a hip injury in Week 2, a preseason groin strain, and a litany of issues dating back to last season. Likewise, 30-year-old Deebo Samuel Sr. scored on an 80-yard hook-and-ladder play last week but otherwise recorded zero targets or receptions against a beatable Arizona defense. Brock Purdy playing out of his mind right now has covered up some ancillary issues with San Francisco's passing offense overall, but this house of cards could crumble quickly with Denver this week and Seattle on deck.

If you're not a strong contender, sell Evans or Samuel quickly if possible for any second-round rookie pick, even if it's 2028 or beyond. If you are contending, I wouldn't count on Evans or Samuel being healthy or productive all season. At least explore adding depth options, or upgrading them to better season-long wide receiver plays. A good pivot might be trading either wide receiver plus a first-round rookie pick for Nico Collins. Another option is to explore either receiver for Rome Odunze straight up if that dynasty manager is fed up, since I still believe the Bears offense will click with their top pass-catchers once Caleb Williams is back healthy.

Dynasty Movement at Running Back