Overlooked Upside: 2026 Underrated Running Backs

Sorting out the chaos with a big-picture look at fantasy-specific news, notes, and analysis from around the NFL.

Bob Harris's Overlooked Upside: 2026 Underrated Running Backs Bob Harris Published 06/26/2026

With all this year's organized team activities (OTAs) and mandatory minicamps behind us, the NFL will take its annual month-long break before training camps start rolling out in the second half of July. 

Ideally, there won't be much going on -- in terms of NFL news -- during this lull in the action. But for fantasy managers who take their preparation seriously, there is no downtime. That's why the Fantasy Notebook will keep rolling with a position-by-position series on underrated players. 

DON'T MISS OUT: Pre-Order the 2026 Footballguys Draft Guide before they are all gone.

This week, we're going with Underrated Running Backs. We started with RB2s capable of RB1 production on Monday. Tuesday, we looked at Talented but Risky RBs. Yesterday it was Talent on the Move. Today, we'll examine four familiar faces with more upside than their current draft prices suggest . . .

Great Defense, Smashmouth Offense Will Unlock Montgomery

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The Texans acquired running back David Montgomery in an offseason trade with the Lions. The move fills the void in the Texans' backfield after Joe Mixon missed the entirety of the 2025 season due to injury. 

Most of Montgomery's success as a pro has come with solid roles.

According to long-time Texans observer Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 in Houston, Montgomery will get that in Houston.

In explaining why Montgomery will be the key chess piece for a Texans' offense looking to build a tougher identity, Wilson said: "He can do it all."

We've Seen That 

Montgomery opened his career in Chicago, where he delivered three top-20 finishes -- including an RB5 overall campaign in 2020 -- in his four seasons.

He never finished outside RB2 territory as a Bear.

Montgomery signed with the Lions in 2023. He racked up 2,506 rushing yards, 650 receiving yards, and 33 touchdowns over his three seasons in Detroit.

Even in a timeshare with Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery got enough work to deliver top-20 fantasy seasons in 2023 and 2024.

But his role in Detroit's offense diminished as Gibbs began to ascend, with Montgomery going from 219 carries in 2023 to 185 in 2024. That number fell to 158 last season.

As a result, Montgomery's touches-per-game average was barely over 10 in 2025 after being over 15 in each of his first two seasons as a Lion. 

He didn't have more than 10 carries in a game in any of the Lions' final eight games last year.

Change is Necessary in Houston

Without Mixon, the Texans didn't have a dynamic, tackle-breaking presence. Veteran Nick Chubb was signed to replace Mixon last offseason. But Chubb failed to regain his old form from his time in Cleveland. 

Rookie Woody Marks emerged as the primary back and showed flashes. But in the team's 28-16 AFC divisional round loss last Sunday to the New England Patriots, the running game was stonewalled. 

The Texans ranked 22nd in rushing yards per game (108). 

Montgomery's Time to Shine

This year, Wilson believes the team is building a "smashmouth" offense centered on Montgomery, who will serve as the team's bell cow.

Houston took the same approach with Mixon upon his arrival in 2024. The former Bengal was RB10 on a points-per-game basis that year. 

Montgomery sits at the tail end of RB2 territory -- RB23 -- per current Average Draft Position (ADP) data. 

The Outcome

Despite his late-fourth-round price, there's no way a healthy Montgomery doesn't get the volume necessary to outperform his draft position -- and to post RB1 numbers any given week.

Is There Room for Swift to Show All His Talent?

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In 2025, D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai formed one of the league's best running back duos. That's not a huge surprise considering current Bears head coach Ben Johnson was behind the Gibbs-Montgomery split in Detroit. 

Swift and Monangai will be a dynamic pair again in 2026. They rushed for 1,870 yards and 14 touchdowns combined last season.

But it was Swift who found the end zone 10 times and finished as RB14 overall

That finish put him ahead of Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall, to name a few.

The upside is that Swift can produce even more in Johnson's offense than he showed last season. He caught a career-low 34 passes for 299 yards and a touchdown, and when playing for Johnson in 2021, he put up 452 yards and two touchdowns on 62 catches. The Lions targeted him 78 times.

Swift was RB10 on a points-per-game basis that season.

Sharing, But From the Front

Monangai will continue to have a role, but Swift continues to play at a high level (he averaged 4.87 yards per carry last season). There's no reason to believe he won't continue to play the lead role. 

With Caleb Williams set to hit the ground running heading into his second season under Johnson, Footballguy Sigmund Bloom noted that Swift won't see many stacked boxes and will have plenty of chances to make the Bears look smart for signing him and fantasy players look smart for drafting him.

His Footballguys projection is RB21

His ADP is RB24. The fourth-round price tag feels right to me, and, as we saw last year, there's plenty of room for him to outperform that.

The Outcome

Given the circumstances, I expect more receiving work and another top-15 finish.  

Is Pollard Still the One?

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Titans running back Tony Pollard is now 29 years old and approaching the downside of his career. 

But he's not done yet. 

As USA Today's BJ Rudell noted, Pollard, coming off his fourth-straight 1,000-yard rushing season, had 300-plus touches in 2023 and 2024, hitting 275 last year.

His average of 3.4 yards after contact ranks fourth most among active running backs with over 400 carries, per Pro Football Focus. 

The only players ahead of him are De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb.

When it mattered most last year, the veteran turned up the volume and production. He was RB10 from Weeks 14-17, which coincides with a majority of fantasy playoffs.

Can he keep that momentum going?

There's reason to believe he will.

All About the Workload

If Pollard is productive again this year, volume will once again be a factor. 

The good news is that incoming offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has historically leaned heavily on a primary back. His Giants offense ranked second in the NFL in rushing attempts last season. They ranked fifth in the league in rushing yards per game (129.1).  

Pollard's versatile skill set and recent production almost ensure that he'll lead Daboll's group in Tennessee. 

So why is he available as RB30 in Round 6? 

There are Concerns

While he's capable of handling high volume, Pollard's fantasy outlook is clouded by Tajae Spears.

As ESPN's Mike Clay noted, Pollard has handled 67.2 percent of the Titans' designed rushing attempts since his arrival two seasons ago (15.2 per game) and, even with solid efficiency, he has finished 22nd and 30th in fantasy points per game with the team's overall offensive malaise and Spears' receiving skills being factors. 

The Outcome

I expect the Titans to field a better offense with Daboll calling the shots in Cam Ward's second season. 

Even with Spears in the mix, Pollard is a solid RB2 candidate for me. 

Stevenson Isn't Going Away

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In 2022, Rhamondre Stevenson appeared to be well on his way to being the Patriots' long-term lead running back.

Stevenson, a second-year pro at the time, rushed for 1,040 yards and five touchdowns that year.

Since then, his rushing numbers have fluctuated, and he's struggled with ball security. Over the last two years, the 28-year-old has fumbled 10 times.

The Replacement 

In 2025, New England selected TreVeyon Henderson in the second round of the draft.

While he never established himself as the lead back, Henderson did cut into Stevenson's workload last season. The veteran went from 207 carries in 2024 to 130 in 2025. 

But Henderson didn't enjoy the takeover fantasy investors expected.

Up and Down

Henderson had what Clay characterized as a "roller-coaster" rookie campaign in which he delivered three huge fantasy performances (28-plus points in all three) but otherwise played second fiddle to Stevenson. Henderson averaged 8.3 points per game in his other 14 contests. 

The three big games and solid touchdown production propelled Henderson to an RB25 finish on a points-per-game basis.

That was three spots behind Stevenson's RB22 performance

Stevenson, who outproduced Henderson despite playing in three fewer games, finished with 603 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on his 130 carries, with 32 catches for 345 yards and two scores.

He ranked fifth among backs in forced missed tackle rate, per Pro Football Focus, second in yards after contact, and first in yards per target.   

This year, Henderson's Footballguys projection calls for an RB26 finish, while Stevenson's RB29 projection is closer to his ADP. 

Even if you believe Henderson will handle more of the workload in his second season as a pro, expecting Stevenson to disappear after a strong 2025 would be unwise. 

The Outcome

According to Footballguy Matt Waldman, Stevenson is the slower back, but he's the better all-around option. Mike Vrabel understands this as a former linebacker and as a coach who had strong years with a power running game in Tennessee.

Waldman is looking for a split close to 50/50, with Stevenson earning slight edges in volume as a runner and receiver. 

With Henderson carrying a fourth-round price as RB21 in current ADP, I'll be passing on the second-year man in favor of Stevenson, the RB31, late in Round 6.


Harris was the FSWA's first-ever Football Writer of the Year back in 2004; he was inducted into that organization's Hall of Fame in 2013. During the season, catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. You can also listen to Harris daily on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.

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