DraftKings Consensus Rankings Week 3

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Ten members of the Footballguys DraftKings staff compiled value-based rankings for Week 3 of the NFL season. Those results are shown below with the highest ranking at the top. Each position is ranked as follows: (A dash indicates that player was not ranked). 

Quarterback - Top 8
Running Back - Top 12
Wide Receiver - Top 12
Tight End - Top 8
Defense - Top 5 

To determine the average ranking, any player not ranked received a value of the lowest rank for that position, plus 1 (LR+1). For example, the Top 8 quarterbacks are ranked by each staff member. If one staff member did not rank a particular quarterback, but others did, the ranking for that quarterback is 8+1 or 9. Instead of displaying a 9 in the table, a dash is used to show that player was not ranked, after average rank was obtained. 

The value-based, collaborative results provide a window into which players are the best options for this week's slate of games. I'll explain why certain players are ranked as they are and also provide additional commentary volunteered by various staff members.

Quarterback

The consensus quarterback rankings for Week 3 are leaning heavily on specific, favorable matchups.

Philip Rivers ($6,700) occupies the #1 rank due to a cushy matchup against the Colts who have given up 73 points in two games (36.5 per game). Indianapolis's defense is still fighting injuries, especially in the secondary and the consensus thinking is that this game will be high scoring on both sides. Vegas agrees, citing an over/under of 52, bested only by Atlanta at New Orleans (53.5). Rivers has been productive so far, tossing five touchdowns - one each to running back and tight end, with three to his wide receivers (2 Travis Benjamin, 1 Tyrell Williams). As long as the Colts defense continues to allow yards and points, Rivers should benefit. His price tag of $8,000 compared to his counterpart on the opposite side, Andrew Luck ($8,700) is more inviting and therefore more appealing. 

Ryan Tannehill ($6,200) and Marcus Mariota ($5,900) also face "plus" matchups against the Browns and Raiders respectively - both at home. The 2016 rule of thumb is to exploit the Browns, Colts and Saints on defense. Entering into that fray, is Oakland. The Raiders have allowed over 800 yards passing and 7 passing touchdowns in two games. The Browns are allowing 290 passing yards and 2 passing touchdowns per game, which has been against Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco. I would put Ryan Tannehill in that same tier of quarterbacks - and Tannehill is coming off a 387-yard game with two touchdown passes against the Patriots. The consensus is content with lower priced quarterbacks striking it big (or bigger than normal) against these appealing matchups. 

Matt Ryan ($7,400) and Drew Brees ($7,900) make up the Top 5 this week for reasons already mentioned - a 53.5 Vegas over/under. Matt Ryan is first in DraftKings scoring this year and Drew Brees isn't far behind in 5th place, 10 points behind Ryan. There's no doubt both quarterbacks have a good chance of high point totals this week, however their price point is decreasing their value. Some people will target Ryan or Brees despite the cost, due to the expected point total in the game. If you could predict a specific quarterback point total, would you pay up to get it, if it meant selecting cheaper alternatives at other positions? Those who take the plunge with a quarterback in this game will need to cutback in other areas. 

Additional Comments
 

Jeff Haseley

Carson Wentz: So far, the rookie has played well, but he hasn’t had a big fantasy game yet. Perhaps a potential back and forth battle with Pittsburgh will give him that statement fantasy game. The Eagles may not win, but Wentz could have a good game if the points are flowing.

Marcus Mariota: The Raiders have allowed 800+ passing yards in two games, plus 7 touchdown passes. The Titans are a team that likes to run the ball, but the passing matchup is favorable and Mariota’s price of $5,900 is appealing.

Jason Wood

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill had a tough first start but looked explosive against the Patriots. His schedule only gets better, as does his comfort in Adam Gase’s offense.

Dan Hindery

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill is second on the Dolphins in rushing attempts and could see even more than normal with Arian Foster out.

Devin Knotts

Blake Bortles: The Ravens stats look a lot better than what they truly are. Josh McCown was on pace for a huge game last week before getting injured and playing with a separated shoulder last week. This is a must win game for the Jaguars and Bortles will be asked to carry a bit work load. 

Will Grant

Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill had a solid game last week and this week he gets a weak Cleveland team. He gets my top nod.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: I’m not a fan of Fitzpatrick, but his salary is low enough to make him a value play

Marcus Mariota: Mariota is a great pick this week because the Raiders have given up over 800 yards passing in the first two weeks.

John Mamula

Philip Rivers: The Colts injured defensive unit vs. the Chargers offensive unit minus Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. I will take Rivers and his receiving options all day in this matchup.
 

Running Back

The value based running back rankings at the top of the chart show a tendency to favor opportunity in an unknown role. Apparently, the consensus sees a great deal of value in both Theo Riddick ($4,900) and Charles Sims ($4,900). All ten staffers ranked Riddick with 8 of the 10 giving him a ranking in the Top 5. Charles Sims was ranked by 9 of 10 staffers, all ranking him in the Top 5. There's a degree of uncertainty in these players this week, but the consensus is locked in to give them a whirl and hope for the best. Riddick's matchup at Green Bay isn't the best and there's no clear indication that he will see additional carries, now that Ameer Abdullah is out of the picture. Green Bay has not allowed a running back to top 39 yards rushing in either of their two games and there's the possibility that rookie Dwayne Washington will handle a decent number of carries in this game, thus splitting reps and minimizing production for Riddick. There's still the chance that Riddick will see a good amount of targets, but the rushing numbers may not be there this week. Next week though against Chicago, is another story. 

I think the consensus rankings got this one wrong. Charles Sims, who looks to have a lock on the majority of the Bucs carries this week, has a better matchup than Riddick. Anything can happen any given week, but the chances of a bigger output look to be in Sims favor. 

Melvin Gordon ($5,800) has been on a scoring binge, reaching the end zone once every 12.1 carries. That's pretty impressive, especially considerring he had 0 touchdowns in 184 carries last year. The consensus rankings like Gordon this week, especially at the $5,800 price tag. As already mentioned above, the Chargers have a great matchup against the Colts, which should lead to multiple scoring opportunities. Gordon takes over as the lead back role now that Danny Woodhead (knee) is lost for the season. 

DeAngelo Williams ($7,500) and David Johnson ($7,700) are the two big price backs that people are most likely to pay up for this week. Both have road games though, which may be the reason for the drop in interest from the consensus. Selecting a lower priced quarterback affords you the ability to pick a high dollar back like Williams or Johnson. Most believe Williams is the better pick at $200 less in price. Williams versatility as a receiver and the Steelers success on offense makes him someone to target. The Steelers however, have a difficult matchup against Philadelphia and you could argue that Johnson's contest at Buffalo is more conducive to success. 

Additional comments
 

Jeff Haseley

Josh Ferguson: I ranked several Colts and Chargers players due to the matchup against each other. This game could reach upwards of 60 points if the trend of scoring and allowing points continues for these two teams. Ferguson is making a move for more playing time and this game could play out in his favor.

Jason wood

Charles Sims: Sims gets the backfield all to himself this week, and that makes him a potentially elite option in DK’s PPR format

Dan Hindery

Matt Asiata: Jerick McKinnon battling his own injury issues, Matt Asiata looks like the Vikings back to target.

Jeremy Hill: With the Broncos talented CBs, the Bengals will look to rely on the run game. Unlike the first two weeks, expect Jeremy Hill to be force fed the ball.

Devin Knotts

Ezekiel Elliott: The Bears lost 6 defensive players on Monday night on an already thin defense, Elliott is being underlooked in this game and should have a monster performance.

Will Grant

Theo Riddick: Riddick becomes the #1 RB option in Detroit now. He’s going to get a ton of carries, but the GB defense has been very stingy when it comes to giving up RB points

Melvin Gordon: Gordon has been a surprise this season, and with Danny Woodhead out of the way, Gordon has a pretty low floor.

Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon should be able to reach value simply based on the opportunity now that ADP is out.

Terrance West: West is dirt cheap, and only needs a couple good carries to reach value.

John Mamula

Melvin Gordon: Gordon will be a volume play for the remainder of this season and is underpriced based on the juicy matchup.

Wide Receiver

The value plays at wide receiver seem to be in abundance this week. Travis Benjamin, Stefon Diggs, Tyrell Williams and Cole Beasley lead the way as bargain options with the possibility of reaching 3x or 4x their price. The consensus believes the value is worth the selection. Big name receivers like Odell Beckham, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones are all high priced, but also have detractions this week. Beckham will be facing his nemesis Josh Norman, Antonio Brown is coming off a less than stellar game and Julio Jones is battling a nagging ankle and calf injury. To put simply, it's not worth it to pay up for those receivers this week. Brown may have the best chance of the three, but his price of $9,600 may be too rich. 

Phillip Dorsett and Tajae Sharpe are interesting picks this week. Dorsett will be filling a void left by Donte Moncrief who is out for 4-6 weeks with a shoulder injury. Look for Dorsett to have more involvement in the passing game in a plus matchup against the Chargers. I'm expecting TY Hilton to occupy a lot of the slot, thus keeping Dorsett on the outside. The only downside is that's where CB Jason Verrett will be. Verrett held Jeremy Maclin and Allen Robinsonin in check the first two games. There's a legit concern that Dorsett will see plenty of Verrett coverage this week, which wouldn't be great news if you decide to put him in your lineup.

Perhaps Tajae Sharpe is a better option?  The Raiders have struggled against opposing wide receivers, allowing 35 receptions, 564 yards and 5 touchdowns only to wide receivers. Sharpe is the defacto WR1 on Tennessee and could be a huge winner if he can reach pay dirt. At $4,700 the investment isn't a big one and the return could be rather generous. I would not be surprised to see a lot of ownership on Sharpe this week and for good reason. 

Additional comments

Jason Wood

Stefon Diggs: He’ll be highly owned but it’s impossible to fade Stefon Diggs right now given how well he’s played with multiple (average) quarterbacks in what’s also a plus matchup.

Dan Hindery

Phillip Dorsett: Everything lines up perfectly for a big game from Phillip Dorsett. Donte Moncrief is out and T.Y. Hilton will have to contend with Jason Verrett most of the afternoon.

Tavon Austin: Austin  is top five in the NFL in market share of his team’s targets. The Bucs top 10 rush D will force the Rams to pass more than normal, making Austin a nice play on volume alone.

Devin Knotts

Kenny Britt has 161 yards on the season against Seattle and San Francisco. This week he gets a Tampa Bay defense that was torched by the Cardinals last week. Britt is the clear number one wide receiver in Los Angeles and should be a great value play this week

Will Grant

Cole Beasley is my top choice because he’s a PPR machine, going against a weak defense in Chicago, traveling on a short week.

Stefon Diggs might be the only star power in the Minnesota offene anymore and is coming off a big week.

Jarvis Landry should have a big game against the Browns this week

Travis Benjamin is the new star of the Chargers now, and he should have a big game against a week Indy team. The drawback there is the Colts haven’t allowed a receiver to score. Maybe Benjamin breaks that streak.

John Mamula

Philip Dorsett will benefit with additional targets due to the loss of Donte Moncrief.

Tight End

The consensus is big on Dennis Pitta this week. He had a strong surprising game in Week 2 and his price tag is still appealing at $3,400. The Ravens have been waiting for someone to step up at the tight end position and it appears Pitta is finally healthy enough to make an impact. There's no reason to think he'll fall back to earth this week at Jacksonville. This may be the last time to get Pitta at such a low price. 

Kyle Rudolph comes in 2nd on the list despite getting a difficult matchup on the road in Carolina. The Panthers allowed a long touchdown to Vance McDonald last week and their secondary has struggled with tackling and angles at times this year. Rudolph has been a big part of the offense for Minnesota this year and with the loss of Adrian Peterson, he may find himself targeted more often. His price of $3,100 is an inviting option. 

Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed will probably see a lot of ownership this week from people looking to pay up for production at the position. Olsen may be the most consistent tight end this year, being one of Cam Newton's favorite targets on a team with the highest points scored in the league. Jordan Reed has yet to find the end zone, but that's also largely in part to Kirk Cousins going 5 for 17 in the red zone so far. 

If Pitta, Olsen or Rudolph aren't in the cards for your lineup, consider Delanie Walker. I already mentioned the favorable matchup the Titans have against Oakland, which fits right into Walker's wheelhouse as well. At $5.000 it may be a bit steep, but the potential for a big game is there. 
 

Additional comments

Jeff Haseley

Jack Doyle and Dwayne Allen have a great matchup and both could be fantasy relevant, especially without Donte Moncrief out of the picture, likely resulting in more two-tight end sets. We already know Andrew Luck targets his tight ends often and this game is leaning towards a high scoring affair. I’m biting on both Colts tight ends this week.

Jason Wood

Jordan Reed: This is a great week to buy into Jordan Reed. He’s expensive and hasn’t been great in the first two weeks, so his ownership should be very low. Yet, he remains an elite option capable of a 2-TD performance, and gets a division foe susceptible to opposing tight ends.

Devin Knotts

Trey Burton:This is assuming that Zach Ertz will miss this week, but Burton was utilized as an h-back, tight end, and split out wide last week. He’s a very versatile tight end that has shown he is a great red zone target.
 

Defense

The consensus on defense this week is all over Miami. They host the Browns who will be starting rookie Cody Kessler in his first NFL start. Let the salivating begin. Miami will be a highly owned defense as a result. If you elect to go with another option, Dallas at home against Brian Hoyer and the Bears is another play that is cheap ($2,500) with the potential for big points. Seattle ($4,100) at home against San Francisco is intriguing, but you're paying a lot for a team that is a hair away from being 0-2. The consensus says one of those three is the best bet this week with Miami leading the way. 

additional comments

John Mamula

Miami will be the chalk defense this week as they matchup vs Cody Kessler.

Jason Wood

Miami is the chalk, with good reason.

Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to haseley@footballguys.com

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