Each fantasy position is its own ecosystem of value. Format plays a part as does unique scoring. However, navigating a draft (or trade value environment) ultimately comes down to players, tiers, and where are the key zones to exploit the best values. Here is a look at the 2020 tight end landscape, highlighting the key players and tier breaks:
*Using the Tight End Consensus values available as of publication*
Other Positions:
Strategy 1: The Big 4
Tight ends with a strong profile of production and good (or better) quarterback pairings are the gold standard to projecting a high floor and ceiling combination.
Qualifiers
Ideal Values
Ertz and Andrews are notably cheaper than Kelce-kittle and in some cases by two or three rounds in a 1TE format draft. Both to some degree functioned as their team's de facto WR1 within the offense in 2019. Andrews' proposition in 2020 centers around buying or fading the Lamar Jackson's sky-high touchdown rate from last season and the lack of development of their wide receiver corps, all second or first-year players of note. Ertz is the safer choice by profile and even is available after Andrews in most drafts.
Strategy 2: Find the Upside
Beyond the top tier, the key is finding the right combination of a top-5 ceiling, but a top-12 floor to make the investment worthwhile. Crashing the top-3 is a tall order considering the competition listed above, but 1-2 end up being the 'right' answer annually as auto-start weekly play.
Well-Rounded
- Jared Cook (While some may view Cook as a low-ceiling play, the floor is sturdy as he's attached to Drew Brees and back-to-back top-10 seasons)
Health Uncertain
- Evan Engram (Three straight top-eight PPG seasons to open his career, led the Giants in targets per game in 2019, durability is the lone hurdle for Engram to post a top-three challenging season)
Situation Uncertain
- Hunter Henry (Two bottom-half TE1 seasons through four years, durability has been a roadblock, but also the uncertainty of strong competition for targets plus a Philip Rivers-less quarterback with the Chargers for the first time in Henry's career)
- Rob Gronkowski (Returns after a year off of football plus two strong wide receivers in Tampa Bay and quality tight ends point to ambiguity Gronkowwki's upside is similar to his New England peaks)
- Austin Hooper (A career peak of TE3 in PPG last season, but a changing landscape moving from Atlanta to Cleveland and a likely lower-volume passing game)
Profile Uncertain
- Darren Waller (A career no-show until a Year 5 breakout in 2019 as a mid-TE1, the Raiders had minimal wide receiver presence but bolstered the position with two rookie selections in the opening three rounds)
- Tyler Higbee (A torrid 2019 finish put him in TE1 territory for the season, which was a rollercoaster road with Gerald Everett also on the depth chart, expectations are Higbee is the clear starter for 2020 and the high-level production continues, but two strong receivers, Cam Akers added, and Higbee's Day 3 pedigree are reasons for skepticism)
- Hayden Hurst (Hurst's move to Atlanta is an optimal one to be one of the bigger upside plays at the position, Round 1 pedigree but still has yet to do much through two seasons as the unknown factor, along with durability)
Ideal Values
Engram is the most alluring higher-end cost of the group in the TE5-6-7 zone of positional consensus, priced around his annual finishes to-date but ideally with more durability in 2020. Hayden Hurst and Jared Cook are the other two ideal targets, both in low-TE1 range of cost and the firm mid-rounds of a typical redraft.
Strategy 3: Shoot for the Moon
This collection is all about either waiting on the position in a 1TE so long a drafter is looking for an early-season pop to not go for waiver-wire options. Or these are likely backups with upside where multiple are drafted. Finally, these are the preferred options in 2TE formats to find a second TE1 producer to dominate the competition.
- Noah Fant (Promising rookie season but questions abound situationally with added wide receivers and Drew Lock with only a handful of starts to-date)
- T.J. Hockenson (Overall disappointing rookie season, quality WR1-2 in Detroit to soften upside, Round 1 pedigree bet)
- Dallas Goedert (TE2 on his own team, but still fringe TE1 for fantasy in 2019, added wide receivers in offseason)
- Mike Gesicki (high-TE2 finish in 2019, Miami offense question marks)
- Jonnu Smith (Flashes in 2019, Day 3 pedigree, low-volume Tennessee offense)
- Blake Jarwin (Yet to be the starter, a new contract in Dallas, high-level offense, strong wide receiver corps)
- Jack Doyle (Ho-hum talent, Eric Ebron gone, Philip Rivers added, question marks at wide receiver)
- Eric Ebron (TE4 PPG career peak, a fresh start with hopefully healthy Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh)
- Chris Herndon (Day 3 pedigree, promising 2018 as a rookie, need trust in the Jets passing game and Sam Darnold progression)
- Ian Thomas (Day 3 pedigree, freed from Greg Olsen shadow, changing Carolina offense)
Ideal Values
Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron are priced at their floors (mid-TE2) and easily outside the first 12 rounds of traditional format drafts by consensus. Both have the quality opportunity and quarterback combinations to push for top-10 finishes.
Strategy 4: The Deep Dive
Targets reserved for deeper formats and 2TE leagues:
- Greg Olsen (Wide range of outcomes, but strong career profile and the possibility to run with clear TE1 role paired with Russell Wilson with Will Dissly recovering from a second significant career injury)
- Jace Sternberger (Open Green Bay depth chart plus questions at WR2, paired with Aaron Rodgers, strong Day 2 metric profile)
- Dawson Knox (2019 rookie flashes, strong athleticism, big-play potential with high-variance Josh Allen)
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