Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the why more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
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Gardner Minshew - Minshew drops to QB30 as the bloom is most certainly off the rose. What was once a story of an underdog overachieving has now turned into a not-so-good quarterback being exposed under the pressure of lofty expectations. Rookie Jake Luton looked as good, if not better, than Minshew in his first career start and it’s time to start thinking of Minshew as a career backup with occasional spot starting opportunities.
Alex Smith - Smith reappears in the rankings for the first time in years. Kyle Allen’s injury re-opens the door for Smith to potentially start for Washington in the final two months, depending on what the team decides to do with Dwayne Haskins – who has been inactive of late. Either way, Smith’s return for a life-threatening leg injury is the stuff of legend, and now has a small glimmer of multi-year fantasy relevance looming if he plays well down the stretch.
Hicks
Alex Smith - With Kyle Allen suffering a probable serious injury and Dwayne Haskins in the dog house, Alex Smith may have more life left in his NFL career. Whether he plays beyond this year is looking too far ahead, but he has a fantasy use for now. He was right off my dynasty radar for obvious reasons and now moves back into immediate consideration ahead of several other current starters.
Drew Lock - After a patchy start to his second season, interrupted by injury, Drew Lock has finally looked like he did at the end of 2019 in his last two games. Whether that is good enough to get the Broncos back into playoff contention is unlikely. Maybe Lock does enough to keep the job next year. He seems to have finally locked onto Jerry Jeudy. He is a gamble long term, but he has all the makings of a fantasy starter if things go right.
Tua Tagovailoa - In his second start, Tua Tagovailoa looked polished, but with so much still to learn. There were however good signs as he lifted his side to victory against the Cardinals. It’s too early to base your franchise on him, but the potential is there. If Miami can get him some protection, a running game, and some receivers, who knows what his upside is? A slight rise, with an eagle eye on further progression.
Parsons
Lamar Jackson - The top of the quarterback board is a crowded affair. Jackson, commonly the QB1/2 off startup boards in the offseason, has stumbled his way to QB17 in PPG midway through the season. Jackson's rushing has slipped some (roughly 20 yards per game and a yard per carry), but the biggest shift has been as a passer. While Jackson's interception rate remains low (in the good way), his regression-worthy touchdown rate from 2019 has been cut nearly in half and his ancillary metrics are down across the board. Considering the more establishing production profiles plus the rising Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and possibly Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson outside QB5 in rankings is prudent and even nearing QB10 as the most bear-ish vantage point.
Sam Darnold - While Darnold does not have the off-field baggage of the tarnished Dwayne Haskins, Darnold is firmly on the hot seat heading into the offseason. The Jets are perched high in the NFL Draft order and Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields will be tough to pass on for teams with any semblance of quarterback question marks. While the argument Darnold has subpar weapons is accurate, the results have been forgettable. Darnold is a sub-60% passer through more than 1,000 NFL passes, plus has nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. Considering today's NFL, this is a relative trainwreck on paper. By NFL comparative standards, 2020 is Darnold's worst season yet. Look for Darnold on the reclamation project route this offseason as the Jets turn the page. Despite Darnold's pedigree, he is outside of my top-25 dynasty quarterbacks with an argument to be outside of the top-30.
Running Back
Hicks
Devin Singletary - It seems obvious now, but Drew Singletary is not a feature back material. He doesn’t find the endzone often and his future probably lies as a third-down back. It is difficult for those who hoped he would take the lead back role, but he has to take a significant drop in rankings.
Wayne Gallman - Since Saquon Barkley went down, the Giants have tried Dion Lewis, Devonta Freeman, and now even Alfred Morris. Wayne Gallman however is the safest option of all. He lacks the upside you want in a fantasy back, but he should be good for a few points with the hope of a touchdown. He moves up in rankings because points do matter. As a free agent, his 2021 destination could keep him in flex territory or drop him altogether.
Dalvin Cook - If he hadn’t missed a game and parts of others, Dalvin Cook would be on track for a 2000 rushing yard season. It is still possible, especially if he keeps exceeding 150 rushing yards every week. What is even more phenomenal is his touchdown numbers, an average of two a game and he has six in the last two weeks. Without gushing even further, Cook is the dominant back in the league at the moment and needs to be recognized as such.
Melvin Gordon - It is a good thing for his fantasy managers that Melvin Gordon can find the end zone. As a runner, he looks only slightly above average. Same as a receiver. There is a chance that he is not back in Denver next year, but a lot of that will depend on how he performs down the stretch. If you have been relying on him as an RB2, it’s time to sell if you can or move on. He is still useful but lacks upside as a future fantasy running back.
Kalen Ballage - After his historically bad effort last year I had little hesitation in ranking Kalen Ballage as my lowest-rated running back. Pinging back and forward between the Jets and Dolphins did nothing to re-evaluate that decision. Fast forward to week nine and he lands with the Chargers. Only four of his 15 carries were for less than four yards. Mind you only two went for more than six, but he cannot remain the anchor in my rankings any longer. Another week like this and who knows?
Parsons
Zack Moss - Moss gets a boost of late with his role being the valuable part of the Bills' committee - the red zone. Moss is a baseline talent but Day 2 pedigree and Buffalo clearly not wanting Devin Singletary to be a high-volume or foundational back makes Moss the higher ceiling weekly lineup play.
DOnta Foreman - The strong metric prospect is back on the map as a backup in Tennessee following multiple years of recovery and seeking a fresh start following an Achilles injury. Foreman is a fit as a backup to Derrick Henry - both supersized backs with surprising athleticism for their size. Foreman projects as the higher volume option to Jeremy McNichols' change-of-pace role if Henry were out with top-18 weekly upside.
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Zack Moss – Moss jumps 12 spots to RB33 after several weeks of strong play. While he hasn’t taken hold of the full-time job from Devin Singletary, he’s settled into a committee approach and is executing well, particularly in high leverage touches at the goal-line.
James Robinson - Robinson makes a long overdue appearance inside the Top 20. The undrafted rookie has been the only consistent cog in the Jaguars offense and has delivered fantasy value regardless of game script. It’s hard to pound out rushing yards and touchdowns on a bad team, but he’s done it nearly every week. Given his age, consistency, and cheap contract, he’s in line for a feature back role for the next few seasons, at a minimum.
Joshua Kelley - Kelley drops to RB36 after a rough few weeks. The Chargers don’t seem to trust him, which was never more evident than when Kalen Ballage – deemed expendable by the lowly Jets – out-snapped Kelley this week after signing a few days before.
Gus Edwards -Edwards jumps up 10 spots to RB39. Those of us who hoped J.K. Dobbins would become the Ravens feature back with Mark Ingram hurt have been kept at bay by veteran Edwards strong play. While Dobbins is the more talented player with the higher upside, Edwards is good enough to earn a significant role elsewhere in 2021. He’ll need to sign with a team well suited for his power-running, straight-line style, so there’s risk. But he’s shown enough to figure as a top-40 prospect.
Wide Receiver
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Christian Kirk - Kirk is an elite metric prospect and Larry Fitzgerald's diminished role for the 2020 iteration of the Cardinals' passing game, plus Andy Isabella not taking the next developmental step, have been key components to Kirk's top-30 production this season per-game and three games of 20+ PPR points of late. While not a high ceiling player with DeAndre Hopkins a foundational WR1, Kirk can be a multiple-season WR2/3 type.
A.J. Brown - Brown is coming off of a historically strong rookie season, especially for a Round 2 pick. Brown is firmly in WR1 territory for his Year 2 encore, which would put him into a strong predictor subset likely to see multiple WR1 seasons in his career. While D.K. Metcalf is getting much of the 2019 rookie class hype this season, A.J. Brown is right there with him in terms of substance.
Hicks
Richie James - The absence of every other receiver in San Francisco gave Richie James the game of his life. There is no chance he gets within half of those numbers again. Does he? Fantasy football can be an odd game. Every manager is right to be skeptical in picking him up this week, but there will be several optimists among us that will think this is the start of a career. An increase in rankings, with a watch, is more sensible.
DK Metcalf - A few weeks ago, after DK Metcalf threw away a touchdown by showboating, he plummeted in my rankings. It rubbed me the wrong way. Since then it’s been nothing but net for Metcalf. His improbable and freakish tackle of Budda Baker, but more importantly going up and catching balls that fewer than 2% of NFL receivers could and just looking imperious every time he gets targeted moves him up higher than I’ve ever had him before, until his next brain fade.
Gabriel Davis - The progression and development of Gabriel Davis will be fascinating. In dynasty terms, he has a very high upside, but that requires careful management by the Bills and investing in the rookie. Do they see him as a starting wide receiver or just a guy? John Brown can be a former Bill easily in 2021 and if Buffalo doesn’t draft a wide receiver or get another in free agency, I would be more confident. For now, he gets a jump in rankings with a very careful eye on more.
Marquise Brown - Marquise Brown started the year in good fashion, but it has gradually been getting worse and worse. What to do? Baltimore either doesn’t want to use him as a number one receiver of doesn’t think he is. That’s not good for anybody and Brown has already expressed his frustration. Unfortunately, if you have Brown you need to be patient and hope Lamar Jackson can find him more often. The potential upside does appear to be pie in the sky right now, so he moves down in rankings.
D.J. Chark - D.J. Chark may be the most annoying player I’ve ever had to deal with in fantasy football. His huge games are surrounded by 1-26 or 3-16 or 4-32. He can go games without being useful and then bang 8-164-2 or 7-146-1 or 8-95-2. Having too many options at wide receiver means his true worth can get distorted. Chark is a true ride-or-die option that you need to be patient with. I will move him up slightly and just plug-and-play from now on.
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DK Metcalf - Metcalf continues to rocket higher, and now stands at WR15 after another flurry of strong weeks. Metcalf may not be statistically better in most weeks than teammate Tyler Lockett, but Lockett has leveled off while Metcalf continues his career ascent. Metcalf has top-5 overall potential, particularly if Lockett leaves Seattle in the next season or two.
Travis Fulgham - Fulgham moves onto the rankings at WR44, which is probably too low if his first-half performance is indicative of his ongoing production. He came off the practice squad to become the team’s only receiving threat capable of stretching opposing secondaries and has maintained a high level of play despite garnering tighter defensive attention. He could pair with Jalen Reagor as the Eagles’ dynamic duo for years to come.
Marquise Brown – Brown falls to WR37 after a rough few weeks. The Ravens passing game has regressed badly this year and it’s time to start questioning whether the Baltimore offense will ever support a high-end outside receiver while Lamar Jackson is the quarterback. With Brown starting to complain publicly about his role, he could end up on another team in a season or two.
Tight End
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Adam Trautman - Adam Trautman was touted as one of the rookie Tight Ends to watch as a dynasty option. His first touchdown against the Bucs should clear out any dynasty leagues that have him on waivers. The problem is that Brees will be gone soon, probably. In the meantime, he gets to sit behind an aging Jared Cook, watching, learning, and developing. A definite move upwards.
T.J. Hockenson - In a clear down year for fantasy Tight Ends, T.J. Hockenson finds himself ranked among the elite options, without elite production. Five touchdowns in eight games will do that. His reception and yardage numbers may eventually come and he is worth an uptick in rankings, but I’d like to see him produce more consistently than have everyone else around him fail or get injured.
Jacob Hollister - Greg Olsen is fading fast and Seattle seems opposed to using Will Dissly as the explosive Tight End that he can be. That leaves the door open for an average guy like Jacob Hollister to take what the defense gives him and in this crazy year, rank in the top 3 for tight end yardage this week. Hollister isn’t a total stranger to fantasy managers though, he ranked 12th for fantasy tight ends last year between weeks 7 and 17 and deserves a little more respect. I will respectfully move him up rankings.
Parsons
T.J. Hockenson - Hockenson continues to impress during his Year 2 rising. Kenny Golladay being out for a stretch will aid his opportunities. Hockenson is a top-10 draft pedigree and attachment to a strong quarterback. For dynasty teams valuing a long runway of age insulation, Hockenson has an argument in the top-2/3 overall at the position.
Robert Tonyan Jr - Tonyan is a tough dynasty player to value-rank. On one hand, he is the starting tight end with Aaron Rodgers and has three top-6 weekly finishes in 2020. On the other hand, Tonyan has zero pedigree to project staying power for the role historically. I have lowered Tonyan's overall ranking and valuation this week as more of a 2020-centric player and one where, most likely, his best games are behind him with Davante Adams healthy, Allen Lazard returning, and Jace Sternberger probably making strides as a productive prospect with Day 2 pedigree even if Sternberger does not outright overtake Tonyan for the lead role in the short term.
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