#Trendspotting: Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2020 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Injuries Aplenty
• Sound the Alarms or Ride out the Storm?

Tweets of the Week

#Panthers Week 2 WR utilization (PFF)

D.J. Moore: 63 snaps, 44 routes, 13 targets, 8 receptions, 120 yards 🔥

Robby Anderson: 54 snaps, 40 routes, 10 targets, 9 receptions, 109 yards 🔥

Curtis Samuel: 48 snaps, 30 routes, 2 targets, 2 receptions, 13 yards (4 rush atts) ❄️

— Context Matters (@dwainmcfarland) September 20, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• The pecking order in Carolina's passing attack has seemingly sorted itself out very quickly under the guidance of new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady. D.J. Moore, as expected, reigns supreme, staying on the field, running the most routes, and commanding the most volume through the air. Robby Anderson, an offseason signing via free-agency, has surprised the most in this unit, posting respectable numbers in each of the first two weeks with consistent volume. In the rear, Curtis Samuel is the odd-man-out in this receiving corps. Samuel's versatility was originally thought to be a positive element for his fantasy viability, however, without an established role in this attack, he is an afterthought this season for fantasy purposes.
• D.J. Moore's potential production in this high-volume passing attack is sky-high, especially in the absence of Christian McCaffrey, who went down with an ankle injury in Week 2.
• Robby Anderson should be on a roster in 100-percent of season-long leagues, regardless of scoring format, given his volume in this passing attack.
• Unless Curtis Samuel's role in Carolina's offense changes dramatically while Christian McCaffrey is sidelined, he is at-best a player that should be stashed away on the bench of extremely deep season-long fantasy leagues.

Colts Week 2 RB usage (PFF)

Jonathan Taylor: 66% snaps, 26 carries, 2 targets
Jordan Wilkins: 25% snaps, 9 carries, 0 targets
Nyheim Hines: 12% snaps, 0 carries, 1 target

(Wilkins was mostly used late 3rd/4th quarter with game more or less wrapped up)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 20, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Jonathan Taylor is quickly shaping up to be a league-winning selection in season-long fantasy leagues. If he is available for any reasonable price-- along the lines of what you would trade for a top-10 scorer at running back-- consider making a move to acquire his services, as he is worth the steep price he will command. DFS sites have quickly caught wind of Taylor's value and he is correctly priced amongst the league's most reliable producers at the running back position.
• Nyheim Hines' role in Indianapolis' offense will be inconsistent on a weekly basis, likely seeing more action in negative gamescripts while remaining an afterthought when the Colts get out to an early lead and employ a run-heavy offensive attack to milk the game clock. Hines' viability in DFS contests is strictly dependent upon gamescript, and even then he should only be considered in GPP formats down the line (barring injuries elsewhere in this backfield.) In season-long fantasy leagues, Hines projects to be a player teetering on the brink of landing on the waiver wire, rarely warranting a spot in a starting lineup outside of extremely deep leagues.

2018-2019

Nick Mullens: 8.31 yards per attempt
Jimmy Garoppolo: 8.31 yards per attempt

Nick Mullens: 15.44 fantasy points per start
Jimmy Garoppolo: 15.46 fantasy points per start https://t.co/nzneU0MwHQ

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 19, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• Should Jimmy Garoppolo miss Week 3 due to the ankle injury he sustained against the New York Jets, Nick Mullens is a serviceable backup that has proven to be comparably efficient throughout his playing time in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
• The availability of various skill-position players in San Francisco's offense, most notably George Kittle, is in question. Should Kittle suit up this weekend against a weak New York Giants' defense, his production should not suffer with this change under-center. Historically, Kittle has seen an increase in target-share and fantasy-points-per-dropback in games that Nick Mullens has started compared to when Garoppolo starts. If available, start Kittle in all season-long formats and roster him in DFS without fear of depleted production given the potentially-forced quarterback change in Week 3.

WR Target per route rate through 2 weeks (min. 50 routes)...

Adams 31.3%
Jerry Jeudy 30.2%
Odell 29.6%
AJ Green 29.3%
Edelman 29.3%
Diontae 28.8%
Hopkins 27.8%
DJ Moore 27.2%
Diggs 27.2%
Thielen 27.2%

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 21, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

• A trio of potential number-one wide receivers in their respective offenses with remarkably high fantasy ceilings are hiding right under our noses through two games this season.
• A.J. Green is still commanding the plurality of targets in Cincinnati's offense despite missing an entire season due to injury last year. There is certainly some rust he has yet to shake off, given the lack of in-game action thanks to the loss of any preseason opportunity and an abbreviated training camp. Should Joe Burrow continually look his way throughout the season, Green's ceiling of production is comparable to what he has provided in his previous non-injury-riddled seasons.
• Jerry Jeudy, Denver's first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, entered the NFL as arguably the most refined route-running rookie of the last decade. Jeudy has put his talents on full display through two games, consistently creating separation and commanding targets in Denver's offense. Although the rookie has been plagued by drops over the course of his first two games, he is poised to erupt in the coming weeks, especially now that Courtland Sutton is sidelined due to a season-ending injury he sustained in Week 2.
• Diontae Johnson, a personal favorite of mine, has seemingly flown under the radar through the first two weeks of the NFL season as the number-one target in Pittsburgh's aerial attack. While JuJu Smith-Schuster is undoubtedly one of the league's best young wide receivers, Diontae Johnson's pass-catching talents are not going overlooked in Pittsburgh's offense, as he leads the team with a 28.8-percent target-share. Throughout Ben Roethlisberger's tenure as the starting quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, this offense has consistently supported two fantasy-viable wide receivers, and it is poised to do so once again. Expect Diontae Johnson to continue to command significant volume in Pittsburgh's passing attack and remain a startable wide receiver option in season-long leagues, as well as an underpriced DFS option in the coming weeks.

Injuries Aplenty

Unfortunately, injuries to key contributors on offenses throughout the NFL ended up being the main theme of Week 2 of the 2020 season. Here we will sift through the most impactful injuries and establish a plan of attack moving forward for both DFS and season long fantasy football lineups.

Commentary and Action Items

• The 49ers have been bitten by the injury bug as hard as any team in the NFL early this season. With Jimmy Garoppolo’s status for this weekend’s matchup against the New York Giants, Nick Mullens is a viable salary-saving option in DFS given his proven efficiency, albeit in limited playing time, under-center in Kyle Shanahan’s offense.

• At running back, Jerrick McKinnon is poised to take over the starting role in San Francisco because both Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman are expected to miss this weekend’s game. McKinnon is an incredible big-play threat, especially in Kyle Shanahan’s offense that has a propensity to create explosive plays for elite athletes at the running back position. Confidently start McKinnon in all season-long leagues and consider using him in all formats of DFS contests this weekend against the New York Giants.

• Justin Herbert will start once again this weekend at quarterback for the Los Angeles Chargers. In his NFL debut against the Chiefs last weekend, Herbert’s tendency to dump the ball off to the running backs in the passing game stood out as one significant difference in the way this offense will operate with him at the helm compared to when Tyrod Taylor is available. Taylor’s penchant to extend plays with his legs and look downfield, rather than take short completions to his running backs lessens the value that Austin Ekeler, specifically, provides in fantasy lineups. However, this weekend with Herbert getting another start, Austin Ekeler, despite only playing approximately 50-percent of the Chargers’ offensive snaps, is a viable option in DFS lineups, as well as a top-end RB2 in season-long formats at the running back position thanks to his increase in expected receiving volume.

• After Saquon Barkley went down with a season-ending knee injury, the New York Giants turned to the free-agent market to help fill the hole left in their backfield by signing Devonta Freeman. While he may eventually absorb the majority of the volume Barkley saw in this rushing attack, allow your competitors to duke it out on the waiver wire attempting to acquire Devonta Freeman. The quality of the Giants’ offensive line leaves much to be desired, and even in a high-volume role, Freeman no longer has the requisite explosiveness and athleticism to produce worthwhile fantasy numbers in a suboptimal situation.

• Following Courtland Sutton’s season-ending knee injury, the Denver Broncos will be forced to turn to an exceptionally young group of pass-catchers to fill the void left on the outside. Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler each made their presence felt in Week 2 after Sutton went down, and both players project to feature a considerable amount in Denver’s passing attack moving forward. Jeudy and Hamler, both rookies, are two of the most refined route-runners in the NFL for their age. Look for Jerry Jeudy to emerge as a high-end WR2 in season-long formats in the near future, while K.J. Hamler stands out as an elite value option on this weekend’s DFS slate. At just $3,000, the minimum allowed price for a wide receiver on DraftKings, Hamler will surely be a staple of the majority of cash-game lineups on the site, and he is certainly worth consideration in your lineups as well.

Sound the Alarms or Ride Out the Storm?

Through two weeks of the 2020 season, while many situations have played out as expected, there are many worrying trends shaping up throughout the league. Here, we will sift through which appear to be mostly noise and which are worth worrying about and acting upon quickly.

Drew Brees and the anemic New Orleans passing attack

Commentary

• Drew Brees, through two games, ranks dead-last in the NFL amongst qualified quarterbacks in air yards per pass attempt (4.9 yards) and air-yards-to-the-sticks-per-pass-attempt (-4.0 yards)-- this metric takes the yards-to-gain for a first down and the depth of each pass attempt thrown and measures how many yards beyond or short of the line to gain a player would have to run after the catch to reach the first-down marker. On average, Brees’ receivers would have to gain four yards after the catch to get to the first-down marker, while the league average currently sits at about one-yard behind the sticks.

• Michael Thomas’ injury has surely thrown a wrench into this offense’s plans to develop a more well-rounded passing attack. This offseason, the Saints acquired Emmanuel Sanders via free agency, giving Brees a potent receiving threat opposite Michael Thomas for the first time in recent memory. Sanders’ inclusion in the offense has not been seamless, to say the least, as he did not register a reception in Week 1, and then Michael Thomas sustained an ankle injury late in that game that may keep him sidelined for a few more weeks. Without the standard offseason and preseason, this offense showed in Week 1 that it is going to take some time to gel and figure out the best way to incorporate its new weapon, but Thomas’ injury will add another significant bump in that road.

Action Items

• This offense is trending in the wrong direction fast. Drew Brees failed to throw for over 200 yards in the season opener against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and padded his stats in garbage time of a Week 2 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders. The refusal to throw the ball down the field through two games is a significant issue for all non-Alvin Kamara pass-catchers in this offensive attack.

• In season-long formats, consider turning to the waiver wire to add another quarterback on rosters featuring Drew Brees as your number-one quarterback.

• Alvin Kamara’s value as a pass-catcher is magnified in the short-term without Michael Thomas available. While Thomas is sidelined, Kamara should be a staple of lineups across DFS formats (on slates that include this week’s Sunday Night Football matchup against the Green Bay Packers.)

• Sound the alarms on the New Orleans Saints’ passing attack (sans Alvin Kamara) until either Michael Thomas returns or Drew Brees proves he is still capable of pushing the ball down the field efficiently in his age-41 season.

Dalvin Cook’s early-season production is fool’s gold

Commentary

• Typically, the Minnesota Vikings favor an exceptionally run-heavy offensive attack, as their head coach, Mike Zimmer, prefers. However, in recent seasons, the Vikings have frequently played with a lead, affording them the luxury of killing the clock via the running game. Through two games in the 2020 season, the Vikings appear to be a shell of their former selves. Minnesota’s 0-2 start is extremely worrying, given the massive drop-off in offensive efficiency through the air, in large part due to the offseason trade that sent Stefon Diggs to Buffalo, as well as defensive efficiency in all phases of the game.

• Dalvin Cook’s fantasy numbers through two games have been bolstered by a trio of rushing touchdowns. Cook has found the end zone once every 8.67 carries through two games, a rate that is wildly unsustainable. Perhaps even more worrying than his unimaginable nose for the end zone is the lack of rushing volume. Through two games, Cook has seen just 13 carries-per-game and 2 targets-per-game. When Minnesota is not playing with a lead, his role in this offense diminishes greatly.

Action Items

• Minnesota’s start to the season has been as disappointing as any team in the NFL thus far. Few expect the Vikings to right the ship with their current roster, and a return to the top of the NFC ranks is unlikely in 2020. Playing from behind, Dalvin Cook’s fantasy value is almost entirely dependent on finding the endzone, which is nearly impossible to project with any significant level of confidence.

• In DFS contests, Cook is a full-fade candidate, warranting little consideration in your lineup-building process, this weekend against the Tennessee Titans.

• In season-long formats where you already have Dalvin Cook on your roster, consider testing the trade market to see if competitors may still pay top-dollar for the reputation Cook has built over the years, as his early-season production appears to be fool’s gold.

• Sound the alarms on Dalvin Cook’s 2020 fantasy value, as the drop-off in Minnesota’s talent across the roster projects to consistently put the offense in a negative gamescript, minimizing Cook’s value to the offense.

Allen Robinson is unhappy and unproductive in Chicago through two games

Commentary

• Allen Robinson made his feelings known after Chicago’s Week 1 game against the Detroit Lions’ suspect secondary. While Chicago emerged victorious, Robinson only hauled in 5 passes for 74 yards on 9 targets, despite turning a masterful day of route-running and separating from defensive backs, which has become the norm for him. Robinson voiced his displeasure with his current situation in Chicago, where he is not being paid as the number-one wide receiver he (correctly) believes he truly is.

• Next time out, in a Week 2 victory over the New York Giants, Robinson was again targeted 9 times, but he caught just 3 passes for 33 yards on the day. Again, an underwhelming performance against an unimpressive secondary.

Action Items

• Despite a pair of poor performances to kick off his 2020 campaign, Allen Robinson remains one of the league’s most-talented pass-catchers. Given his stable role and volume in Chicago’s passing attack, Robinson is an elite buy-low candidate in another soft matchup against the Atlanta Falcons’ horrific pass defense in Week 3.

• At $6,200 on DraftKings, Robinson is an elite GPP option this weekend when he goes up against Atlanta’s secondary that has allowed back-to-back 300-yard passing games to open the 2020 season.

• In season-long formats, Allen Robinson is a fantastic buy-low trade target, as team managers may begin to grow impatient with his lack of early-season production, ignoring his strong underlying numbers signaling that breakout performances may be in store.

• Ride out the storm with Chicago’s number-one wide receiver, as his true talent level should prevail in the coming weeks against numerous sub-par pass defenses.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns regarding this article (or anything having to do with fantasy football,) feel free to reach out to me on Twitter and I'll be sure to respond as soon as possible. Good luck all!