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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week.
5: Going big on touchdowns
- This is a spot where we can get aggressive and attempt to 4X our buy-in.
- The Thursday night game between the Bengals and Jaguars has a relatively high over-under of 46 points and has a good chance of going over with both offenses having some advantages.
- The game features a pair of talented young quarterbacks starting to come into their own. The last time these two faced each other was in LSU’s 42-25 win in the national title game. In that game, Ja'Marr Chase had 9 catches for 221 yards and 2 touchdowns.
- Chase has averaged 1.33 touchdowns per game to start his NFL career. While this number is bound to drop, it is worth noting it is actually a decrease compared to his 1.43 touchdowns per game in his final college season.
- By any measure, Chase is off to a fantastic start to his career. After a training camp marred by drops, he has been nearly flawless since the real games have started.
Ja’Marr Chase: 4 TD receptions of 10+ yards this season— PFF (@PFF) September 30, 2021
Most in the NFL ðŸ¥‡ pic.twitter.com/wXt0rkuMWt
- With Tee Higgins again sidelined, the target tree for the Bengals narrows a bit and gives both Chase and Tyler Boyd a higher floors in a game they should have success. The Jaguars defense ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass.
- While Joe Burrow and the wide receivers generate more headlines, Joe Mixon has been the engine of this offense. The Bengals rank as the fourth-most run heavy team in the NFL when adjusting for situation. He is averaging 22.3 carries per game and playing almost every down as one of the few true every down backs in the league.
- The Jaguars have given up 1.6 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs this season.
- Like many teams, the Bengals have struggled against offenses with mobile quarterbacks. Half of Lamar Jackson’s most dazzling career highlights have come against Cincinnati. The run threat of Trevor Lawrence should open up bigger holes for James Robinson than were available for Najee Harris against this defense last week.
- It finally seems to be sinking in for Urban Meyer that his offense should be running through James Robinson. He is starting to separate himself from Carlos Hyde and his usage over the past two weeks has been more of what we expected coming into the season.
- The Jaguars looked like the best versions of themselves for stretches of the second half of last week’s game against the Cardinals and those drives were run heavy featuring Robinson.
Jags drive: Eight runs, zero passes, 75 yards, James Robinson TD.— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 26, 2021
4: Brown over Sutton
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