Cracking FanDuel Week 1

Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

No update this morning as there is not any major news that has broken that has caused a need to update the lineup. Every Sunday Morning beginning at 5AM I start building lineups to see if there's anything that I like more than what I created earlier in the week, and there's nothing that I like more than what I've already published.

Best of luck everyone!

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Kansas City (at ARI) – 29.0 points
• LA Chargers (vs LV) – 28.0 points
• Indianapolis (at Hou) – 27.0 points
• Philadelphia (at Det) – 26.5 points

Cash Game Strategy- Week 1 Tip

I absolutely hate re-using content as it seems lazy, but this one is so incredibly important especially for new people that I need to continue to use it as the Week 1 tip. So apologies if you’ve read this before, but it is a good reminder of how we are going to approach this season. We have been doing this article now for 7 years back when it was just on a blog and would start the season the exact same way.

Game Selection- Head to Head over 50/50’s?

If you’ve been a reader of this article for the last several years, you know how this tip goes, but it is an important one to touch on each and every Week 1, as far too often we see multi-entry 50/50 cut lines are higher than even the minimum cash lines for GPP’s. The real benefit of head to heads is bankroll management. Most 50/50 or double up contests especially the big one’s are going to have a similar cash line across the board. What this ultimately means is that your lineup is either going to win everything or lose everything, so if you are in the 49^th percentile of lineups you will lose 100% of your entries for those contests. Conversely if you have a large enough sample size on head to heads you will only lose maybe 5-10% of your bankroll. From a sample size standpoint, my recommendation is to have at least 10-20 head to heads even if that means you’re playing $1 games.

If you are going to do anything to help your ROI this year, start tracking your opponents. Create a spreadsheet or a piece of paper and really evaluate the rosters of the people that you are facing. The one piece of advice is that people do not spend enough time evaluating who they are facing, but instead just blindly enter contests. The one thing is that don’t just look at the amount of points your opponent scores, but instead look at the roster construction. If it is a solid construction you may not want to play that opponent each week and have to rely on a coin flip. Instead, try to find people who build fundamentally different rosters than you, maybe someone who makes mistakes and doesn’t play the top owned players.

If you blindly enter head to heads, or do not want to have a large enough sample size, the next best contest is to find the biggest single entry 50/50 that you can find

Single Entry GPP’s

An underutilized contest that does not get talked about nearly enough are the Single Entry GPP’s. These typically have a lower cash line than even 50/50’s, so if you are against playing Head-to-Heads, take a look at these contests. There are far too many people who treat them similarly to a big GPP, and have lineups that have crazy stacks and off the wall plays that in a Single Entry contest there is simply no need to do. We will be continuing to monitor these contests this year to see if there is an edge and see how they compare to the 50/50’s and double ups as we look to help build your bankroll.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

Compared to past Week 1’s there are not many injuries to go through that are going to create pricing opportunities that make players a must play.

Not an injury, but Dameon Pierce won the starting job in Houston as the team cut Marlon Mack in the offseason. At $5,400, he is certainly an option, but is by no means a must start this week as Rex Burkhead likely will still have a role and will be involved in the passing downs in particular. Pierce has never had over 106 carries in college as he was in a tandem situation at Florida, so it would be surprising if the Texans came out and gave him 15-20 carries in a game.

Rondale Moore will miss this week with a hamstring injury. This complicates the Cardinals situation as DeAndre Hopkins is suspended this week, and Zach Ertz appears to also be questionable with a calf injury. This should lead to an increased focus in Marquise Brown, but he is just a little too expensive at $6,900 this week, while James Conner could likely be a beneficiary of these injuries/suspensions but he is also expensive at $7,700. This may just be a straight stay away for now.

Allen Lazard is doubtful this week with an ankle injury which just makes the Packers wide receiver situation even more bleak given that Davante Adams was traded, Marquez Valdes-Scantling left in free agency, and the Packers are going to rely on Romeo Doubs, Sammy Watkins, and Christian Watson. Doubs at just $5,000 is an intriguing option as camp reports had him looking good this preseason, but all rookies seemingly pose some level of risk heading into Week 1. This likely will lead to additional opportunities for the running backs in A.J. Dillon who is very cheap at $6,100 and Aaron Jones at $7,400.

Week 1 Strategy

Week 1 of DFS is always a strange week. The biggest challenge is that for a lot of us, we have been looking at a season-long mindset for often several months in preparing for our season-long leagues, and now we have to throw all of that aside and just focus in on one singular week. The biggest challenge for a lot of players is overcoming biases that they may have had in their season-long leagues. Things such as avoiding a player because they were too overhyped in season-long could mean the missed opportunity if they were overpriced in season-long but a great price in DFS.

An example of this for me is Aaron Jones. I have a pre-conceived bias against him due to him being a second-round season-long pick and sharing the backfield with A.J. Dillon. However, in a one-week format, he is priced as the 12^th running back on this slate in between D’Andre Swift and Josh Jacobs. Add to the fact that as Allen Lazard is also out, this should elevate Jones even further as he is the better receiving back on the Packers and ultimately makes him a very strong play this week.

Cash Game Core Plays

Jalen Hurts $8,000

The fantasy football landscape in DFS has largely changed on FanDuel as you don’t get the 300-yard bonus equalizer that you can get on DraftKings for example. What this means is that having a quarterback with rushing upside is critical, and few players on this slate have more of a rushing upside than Hurts. Hurts has ran the ball 7 or more times in every game except for a 34-10 blowout of the Giants in Week 16 last season averaging 52 yards rushing per game which equates to an extra 125 passing yards that another quarterback will have to make up.

There certainly is risk in Hurts, as the last time he faced the Lions, the Eagles won 44-6 and Hurts shockingly had just 106 yards passing, 71 yards rushing and no touchdowns. However, the upside of Hurts should win out this week as it seems unlikely with the Eagles as only a 5-point favorite that they will have another massive blowout game. The Lions have one of the most unproven secondaries in football as Jeff Okudah has yet to show he can be an NFL corner along with Amani Oruwariye a former 5^th-round selection who has struggled throughout his two years as a starter.

Jonathan Taylor- $10,200

The only concern with Taylor this week is the price. However, if we look at him at $10,200 he is not that much more expensive than the next tier of running backs with Derrick Henry $9,700, Christian McCaffrey $9,500, and Austin Ekeler $9,400. This is a play this week that is likely going to be popular, but for good reason as the Texans allowed the second-most rushing yards last season at 142.2 yards per game while allowing 140 or more to Taylor in both of their two matchups last season. The Colts maybe less run dependent this year with the addition of Matt Ryan, but it is still reasonable to think that Taylor finds the end zone at least once this week while tacking on at least 100 yards.

Kyle Pitts- $6,000

The second-year tight end is expected to grow after a mediocre first season in Atlanta. The team went out and got help at wide receiver to take some of the attention off of Pitts in first-round pick Drake London. Pitts creates a matchup problem for just about any team, and with the Saints having one of the best run-stopping units in football, expect a pass heavy approach from Marcus Mariota and this Falcons offense. We’ve seen Mariota lock on to a tight end in Delanie Walker back when they both were in Tennessee, so at $6,000 this may be the cheapest that we get Pitts all season.

Mike Williams- $6,600

Keenan Allen has a difficult matchup this week going against one of the better slot corners in the NFL in Nate Hobbs who had an outstanding rookie season last year. This means that there will be an increased focus for the Chargers to get the ball to Mike Williams as we saw in the Week 18 game last season where Willliams had 17 targets compared to Keenan Allen’s 8. Williams will face off against Anthony Averett who is 5’11 180 pounds which will allow for a significant size advantage for the 6’3 220 pound Mike Williams. At $6,600, he’s $800 too cheap and should be priced in the A.J. Brown area.

The Case for Dameon Pierce

Dameon Pierce is an interesting case this week, where everyone acknowledges that he is underpriced, yet no one is really thrilled with playing him in their lineups. In a cash game setting, this week, I’m comfortable playing Pierce, simply for one reason which is that it allows you to be comfortable elsewhere. At $5,600, the question that you have to ask yourself is where should he be priced? The answer is likely in the $6,200-$6,400 range in the similar range as Travis Etienne, A.J. Dillon, even some higher players that are comparable such as Cordarrelle Patterson at $6,600.

Pierce is not going win you your contests this week, but you just have to trust that he won’t cause you to lose either. By taking Pierce, you have to hope that he gets 12-15 touches, and gets 8-10 points with those touches. Then we need a chance at a touchdown. If he finds the end-zone, he’ll immediately pay off his price tag. Need to trust the other guys that he allows us to go up to in order to deliver.

Is he someone that we are excited about? Absolutely not, but the sub-6k range is tough this week, so in order to fit in a Jonathan Taylor type player, we need to take a chance somewhere.

LINEUPS

SAMPLE ROSTER 1 ($60K) – PRIMARY CASH- (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 122.1)

• QB Jalen Hurts- PHI- $8,000
• RB Jonathan Taylor- IND- $10,200
• RB Dameon Pierce, HOU, $5,600
• WR- Tee Higgins, CIN, $7,000
• WR Mike Williams, LAC, $6,600
• WR Robert Woods, TEN, $5,600
• TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
• Flex RB Aaron Jones, $7,400
• TD Washington Commanders, $3,700

SAMPLE ROSTER 2 ($60K) – Cash Plus Lineup FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 120.9)

A cash plus lineup is one that is designed to be used in something like a 100 player or less contest where 20-30% of the prize pool cashes. These can also be used for 3-person or 5-person contests where the top person wins. Often these will have a heavier emphasis on stacking built into them, but not factoring in roster percentages compared to a true GPP lineup which may avoid some of the higher projected rostered players.

• QB Jalen Hurts- PHI- $8,000
• RB Dalvin Cook, MIN, $8,400
• RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,800
• WR- A.J. Brown- PHI- $7,100
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $7,000
• WR Robert Woods, TEN, $5,600
• TE Kyle Pitts, ATL, $6,000
• Flex RB Aaron Jones, $7,400
• TD Washington Commanders, $3,700

SAMPLE ROSTER 3 ($60K) – GPP Lineup (FBG PROJECTED POINTS = 116.1)

A GPP lineup is often going to avoid some of the more higher rostered players and try to create stacks or game stacks that could pay off. This often is a riskier approach, and is more designed to help you understand the philosophy rather than a direct copy of the lineup. We have a GPP article written by Dan Hindery that I highly recommend if you’re looking for GPP guidance.

• QB Kyler Murray, ARI, $8,200
• RB AJ Dillon, GB, $6,100
• RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, $6,800
• WR- Marquise Brown, ARI, $6,900
• WR Tee Higgins, CIN, $7,000
• WR Robert Woods, TEN, $5,600
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,000
• Flex RB Nick Chubb, CLE, $7,800
• TD Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,600

Player Chart

Green are top cash game plays, yellow are second-tier cash game plays. Often can be used for things such as late swap or filling out a roster.