Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

Week 6 is unique for a couple of reasons. First, we have arguably the most anticipated game of the season on the main slate. Buffalo and Kansas City look like the two best teams in the NFL and are the top two scoring offenses in the league. This extra attention could lead to players on these teams being even more popular than they already are in typical weeks. Second, we have some big running back injury news that is going to lead to some backup running backs that could be some of the chalkier plays we have seen all season.

The above two factors are going to lead to interesting game theory decisions for tournaments. In broadest terms, should we “fade the chalk,” or should we let others do it for us? The whole idea of chalk versus contrarian has been turned upside down to some extent in recent years. Last season, we would see a bit of an industry consensus emerge with ownership projections. Then, there would be a strange consensus that would emerge about how best to build lineups based upon those projections. So maybe Mike Evans would be projected for 30% rostered and Chris Godwin 10%, so the consensus would be that Godwin was the better strategic play. Then you would get to Sunday, and it would be Godwin at 30% and Evans at 10%. We saw this phenomenon play out week after week. There is not an easy answer here. You cannot ignore percent rostered projections altogether because getting leverage against the field by being heavier on some guys and lighter on others will always be the name of the game. On the other hand, you should be taking any projections about who will be chalk and who will be the contrarian pivot off of the chalk with a grain of salt because this is not the early days of DFS. With almost everyone thinking strategically and attempting to differentiate from the field, it does not take much for the plays predicted to be contrarian to turn into their own form of chalk.

Quarterback Positional Overview

We project Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, and Patrick Mahomes II to be the most popular tournament plays in Week 6. It is no coincidence that the ownership is going to concentrate around the quarterbacks from the two games with the highest Vegas totals, especially since each of the quarterbacks in question has some level of rushing upside. As noted above, the question will be how much we want to go out of our way to try to differentiate ourselves at the position by going down to poorer game environments and/or to quarterbacks with less rushing upside.

Top QB Plays

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore ($8,800)

With the matchups in Kansas City and Seattle drawing most of the attention, Jackson should fly more under the radar than normal this week. His popularity may also be down a bit because the matchup looks tough on paper. The Giants have given up just 14.4 FanDuel PPG to opposing quarterbacks this season (10th-fewest). However, the numbers are misleading given the quarterbacks faced have been Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, Justin Fields, and Aaron Rodgers. None of those guys has been playing at a level anywhere close to how well Lamar Jackson has been playing this season. Jackson put up monster numbers through the air the first three weeks but has had back-to-back down games as a passer against very good Bills and Bengals pass defenses. He should bounce back against a beatable Giants pass defense. Plus, Jackson is providing massive fantasy value as a runner. Over the last four weeks, he has averaged 89.3 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game (12 FanDuel PPG just with his legs).

Jackson has put up slate-breaking 40-plus point fantasy performances in 40% of his starts so far this season. If he is going to go even slightly overlooked due to the popularity of Allen, Mahomes, and Murray, then we should make him a priority for our lineups.

Josh Allen, Buffalo ($9,200)

Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and likely to be the most popular tournament play at the position. However, does it really matter? We are still probably going to want to have him in our lineups. Allen is performing at a higher level than anyone else in the league and has looked unstoppable for long stretches of games, including an incredible streak of performances dating back to the 2021 NFL playoffs.

Allen has played at Kansas City three times since January of 2021 (two playoff meetings and a regular season game in Week 5 last year). In those games, he has averaged 310.3 passing yards and 3.0 passing touchdowns. He has also added an average of 71.7 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game.

Other QBs to consider:

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay ($7,500) Brady has posted back-to-back games with 350-plus passing yards and is rounding into form as he starts to get his top weapons back. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (22.1) to opposing quarterbacks. Brady has averaged 312 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game in his career against the Steelers. He may not have the same ceiling as the top dual-threat quarterbacks, but we are getting a big enough discount here that the play makes sense and could pay off handsomely if none of the expensive guys has a big rushing game.

Kyler Murray, Arizona ($8,300) Seattle’s defense has given up over 40 points per game over the last two weeks, and this matchup has obvious shootout potential. Murray has not been as involved as a runner early this season, but that may change as things get more desperate. Arizona cannot afford to fall to 2-4, so we could see the team lean more on Murray’s rushing ability, especially with James Conner out and the running back depth chart depleted.

Geno Smith, Seattle ($7,400) Smith has quietly been one of the league’s best quarterbacks over the last three weeks. He has averaged over 25 FanDuel PPG over that stretch and led the team to a total of 80 points over the last two weeks. The Cardinals have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back Positional Overview

Whereas at quarterback, most of the attention this week is on a specific pair of games. At running back, most of the attention is on the opportunity created by injuries to starters. With Damien Harris, Rashaad Penny, James Conner, and Cam Akers all out, we have some relatively affordable young running backs stepping into larger roles. Unlike some weeks when there are backups thrust into larger roles, we have good reason to believe some of these young backs have the talent to take maximize these opportunities in front of them. Rhamondre Stevenson, Ken Walker, Eno Benjamin, and Darrell Henderson are each strong point per dollar projections and great plays this week if you are not worried about how many other tournament rosters they land on. Therein lies the rub. Do we still like Rhamondre Stevenson as a tournament play if he ends up being on 30% or 40% of tournament rosters?

The advice here is to sprinkle in some of these newly promoted starters but not to go too overboard. This is a week where we have the opportunity to get some more proven commodities at lower-than-usual ownership. Players like Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey are each flying more under the DFS radar than they typically do and make for nice upside bets.

Top RB Plays

Eno Benjamin, Arizona ($6,300)

With both James Conner and Darrel Williams out for the Cardinals, Eno Benjamin should step into a nearly every-down role. Late-round rookie Keaontay Ingram should serve as the top backup, and he has never taken an NFL snap. Benjamin should be heavily involved both as a runner and receiver. Even in a backup role, he has seen at least four targets in all but one game this season.

As expected - Eno Benjamin - who at least 45 yards from scrimmage & 4 targets in 4 of 5 gms this year in a crowded backfield - should get a lot of work in Sun. SEA has allowed 100+ scrimmage yards to a RB in every game this year. Benjamin is a strong mid tier RB2 start this wk https://t.co/vgSi8ZnFZ7

— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) October 14, 2022

Seattle has allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing running backs (131 per game). This has included big individual performances each of the last three weeks, with Cordarrelle Patterson (141 rushing yards), Jamaal Williams (108), and Alvin Kamara (103) each topping 100 rushing yards. The Seahawks have allowed 84 points in the last two weeks, and defensive players were melting down in sideline arguments. We have seen the Cardinals backs have success against this unit. In Week 17 last season, Conner and Benjamin combined for 149 total yards, 10 receptions, and 2 touchdowns (31.9 FanDuel points).