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Footballguys' great Cecil Lammey preaches the importance of windows in fantasy football. The fantasy season breaks down nicely into four quarters. The first quarter is the reveal, our first glimpse at summer speculation in action. The third quarter is the home stretch when teams position themselves before closing trade deadlines. The final quarter is the championship-deciding playoffs.
But the second quarter is where the danger lies. When everything we thought we knew is wrong.
Reality smacked the San Francisco 49ers, a team with three blowout victories, a strange Week 1 weather game, and a close loss. In a classic "West Coast comes East for a body clock game," the Atlanta Falcons smacked them 28-14. Tight end Kyle Pitts returned from injury and showed signs of life, catching his first touchdown of the season. Meanwhile, the 49ers were forced well out of their comfort zone as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's 41 pass attempts were his most since 2019. The volume allowed some quiet starters, with tight end George Kittle's 83 receiving yards (his first game over 48 this season) and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk setting a career-high with 28.3 PPR points in his first two-touchdown game. Unfortunately, it took a game well out of the comfort zone for these performances, putting them firmly in "do it again" territory.
The Green Bay Packers are facing a harsh reality of their own. After Week 4, they sat at 3-1 with what looked like an easy stretch. Now back to back losses to the New York duo leaves them asking questions. Jets rookie RB Breece Hall was again the story, with a career-high 116 rushing yards and his first career 100-yard day. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers' slow start continued; Rodgers's completion percentage of 67% is his lowest since 2019, his 6.7 average yards are his lowest since 2015, and with three interceptions in 209 attempts, he has doubled his interception rate from his last two seasons.
The AFC East had a day, with the Patriots recording a dominant 38-15 over the Browns and the Bills securing a massive 24-20 victory over the Chiefs; the division is now the only division not to have a losing team. The Jets are feeling themselves, with the second-best record in the AFC at 4-2 and riding a three-game winning streak. The Browns need to raise a red flag; now 2-4, they face a brutal stretch that sees them play the Ravens, Bengals, Dolphins, Bills, and Buccaneers, all of which are at least .500. In a tight AFC playoff race, the Browns could be eliminated before DeShaun Watson returns in their 12th game.
To put the Browns in that position, the Ravens need to bounce back after losing to the best story of the first window, the New York Giants. The Ravens held win percentage odds of 84% before a penalty on a converted third down with 3:04 left led to an interception and the team unraveled. At some point, teams cross the line between pure luck and learning how to win games, and the Giants might be there. Sitting at 5-1, the team has a stretch that sees them play the upcoming Jaguars, the Seahawks, the Texans, and the Lions; those teams are a combined 7-14-1. The team again rode Saquon Barkley, who sits as the overall fantasy RB1 in PPR formats at 20.7 points per game. That would represent the lowest single-game overall RB1 total in the past ten seasons.
That running back point paints the story of the 2022 season. The first three weeks belonged to the ZeroRB mindset, relying on elite early-drafted wide receivers and plug-in running backs to maximize scores. Weeks 4 and 5 seemed to normalize. But Week 6 showed ZeroRB is not going away. JaMarr Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs posted huge fantasy weeks to lead all overall scorers. Meanwhile, the running back PPR leaderboard showed you could have skipped the early rounds entirely: Deon Jackson 28.1, Rhamondre Stevenson 25.1, Christian McCaffrey 22.8, Leonard Fournette 22.1, Breece Hall 20.1, and Kenyan Drake 19.7.
In this week's Dynasty Rankings Movement, the staff discussed trigger points on when to flip to a contender or rebuild status on a dynasty team. The replicability of running back production and the ability to build strong receiver groups to carry your core should be primary considerations when weighing these dynasty-shifting moves. Be sure to stay current on your teams' trends; after all, everything we know is wrong.
Let's dive deeper through the week in stats. Keep in mind as we prep for Week 7, the following teams are on byes: Buffalo Bills / Los Angeles Rams / Minnesota Vikings / Philadelphia Eagles.
A production sample from three different teams' most efficient rushers. Can you place this production?
Revenge! A Dish Best Served On The Field
- RB Melvin Gordon, Denver vs Los Angeles Chargers - Monday Night
- RB Tevin Coleman, San Francisco vs Atlanta - Lost 28-14, 4 carries, 3 yards
- QB Andy Dalton, New Orleans vs Cincinnati - Lost 30-26, 17/32 - 162 - 1
Deep Dynasty Watch List
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