Week 14 Recap- 4-1
Great rebound week last week which was much needed to get this back on track. 37-29 on the season and looking like we are on pace to have a profitable season.
Breece Hall Under 44.5 Rushing Yards- Win
Joe Flacco Over 206.5 Passing Yards- Win
Gardner Minshew Over 230.5 Passing Yards- Win
Jerome Ford Under 47.5 Rushing Yards- Loss
Justin Fields Over 195.5 Passing Yards- Win
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Week 1 |
Week 2 |
Week 3 |
Week 4 |
Week 5 |
Week 6 |
Week 7 |
Week 8 |
Week 9 |
Week 10 |
Week 12 |
Week 13 |
Week 14 |
Total |
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Record |
2-3 |
4-1 |
5-0 |
3-2 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-2 |
3-2 |
2-3 |
2-3 |
3-3 |
2-3 |
4-1 |
37-29 |
Week 15 Props
Joe Flacco Over 228.5 Passing Yards
The prop models for some reason don’t love Joe Flacco, but over his time as both the Browns quarterback and the Jets quarterback the last couple of seasons, he has cleared 228.5 passing yards in six of his seven starts since 2021. This season, Flacco has looked great as he has thrown for 254 and 311 yards in his two starts. Flacco has only been with the team for just about three weeks, so his familiarity with the team should only continue to grow. Facing the Bears who boast one of the league’s best run defenses should force the Browns to throw the ball throughout the game. The one concern here is that the Bears’ secondary has been great over the last four games allowing just one quarterback to top this mark, but the competition that they’ve faced has been poor facing Derek Carr, and Bryce Young. While they did face Jared Goff twice, he was able to top 228.5 once during their two meetings.
Derrick Henry Under 68.5 Rushing Yards
Many fantasy football players had this game starred for a massive game for Derrick Henry to potentially catapult them to winning their fantasy matchup. However, this 2023 version of the Texans' defense under coach DeMeco Ryans is completely different than what we have seen in the past. In prior seasons, this was one of the league’s worst run defenses, but this season, they lead the league in yards-per-carry allowing just 3.3 on the year. Since some early season struggles in the new defensive system, the Texans have been great allowing only one running back to top 68.5 rushing yards since Week 4.
Lamar Jackson Over 210.5 Passing Yards
Jacksonville’s pass defense has been an issue all season but is quickly falling apart. They’ve allowed 295 yards passing or more in four of their last five games with the only game they failed to do so being against Will Levis. All but two teams this season have topped 210.5 passing yards, with the only three who did not were Levis and Desmond Ridder. The Jaguars are a funnel defense with a very good run defense, which causes opponents to throw the ball the second most in the NFL. For Jackson, we saw him find something with Odell Beckham last week as the team desperately needs a second receiver behind Zay Flowers after the injury to Mark Andrews. Jackson threw for 316 yards against the Rams while throwing the ball 43 times which was the most he’s thrown since the 2019 playoffs.
Matthew Stafford Over 273.5 Passing Yards
The matchup could not be any better for the Rams this week as they’re taking on arguably the league’s worst pass defense in Washington. Over the last 10 games, 8 quarterbacks have topped 273.5 yards with the only two failing to do so being Tommy DeVito and Mac Jones. Benjamin St-Juste has allowed the second-most receiving yards in coverage this season, while rookie Jartavius Martin has struggled filling in for the benched first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes who was allowing the most passing yards in coverage before his benching. The team misses Montez Sweat and Chase Young tremendously as they have not been able to get production out of their replacement’s rookie Andre Jones and Casey Toohill. For Stafford, the Rams finally seem to be figuring out how to operate their offense with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. In two very difficult matchups against Cleveland and Baltimore, Stafford has thrown for 279 and 294 yards.
DeMarcus Robinson Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
Robinson is a DFS darling this week as he is expected to be one of the more popular players on this slate. However, this seems to be a trap. Last week, Robinson had 10 targets and the Rams are in a tremendous matchup against the aforementioned Commanders. However, last week, the Rams were without both Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee. Both are expected to be back this week, which could impact Robinson as he does not have more than five targets in games with those players in the lineup. Robinson can break a long play as 3 of his 12 receptions on the year are longer than 20-yards, but don’t expect him to get anywhere close to the 10 targets that he had last week especially after only catching three of those targets. Note, Tutu Atwell is now expected to not play. This is still a play this week, but it is not as strong as it previously had been.
