The opening of the NFL Scouting Combine just 11 days ago began to give us a sense of the season ahead. But the whole shebang heats up considerably this week as the NFL free-agent signing period begins.
While the signing period officially starts Wednesday at 4 pm ET (coinciding with the start of the new league year), the lunacy begins at noon ET Monday with the opening of a "legal tampering period."
That's when teams are allowed to contact the certified agents of prospective unrestricted free agents to discuss terms and enter contract negotiations. This period runs for two days, until Wednesday at 3:59:59 pm ET, the second before the start of the new league year. Contracts negotiated during the legal tampering period will be widely reported but can only be officially executed once the official starting period starts.
The Fantasy Notebook is sent out Sunday night, so some of you might not see it until Monday.
Some items here may have changed by the time you get to it.
That's okay.
We'll follow up on significant moves and other developments as needed throughout the legal tampering period. Once the signings begin in earnest on Wednesday, Footballguys will have all the official moves covered in near real-time, both in the form of Instant Reactions and our sortable Free Agent Tracker.
Until then, there's plenty of intrigue -- both free-agent and NFL Draft-related -- to work through.
All of that started at the combine.
Confession time: I'm not a draftnik. Fortunately, there are people who focus almost exclusively on assessing rookies and do a great job of it. Footballguy Matt Waldman has been one of them for 20-plus years. Our own Jeff Bell, Kevin Coleman, and Christian Williams have produced the 2024 Footballguys DraftGuide (version 2.0 has just been posted!), providing in-depth info on incoming players at the skill positions.
But even as a non-draftnik, I find the gathering in Indianapolis among the more interesting off-season events.
Why?
Every head coach and general manager in attendance steps up to the podium and talks about things of great interest to us as fantasy managers. Indeed, as Sigmund Bloom and I have discussed for years during conversations On The Couch, these Combine interviews might be the only time coaches and GMs tell the truth -- at least to the degree possible.
Or, more accurately, to the degree to which it forwards their objectives.
Even if it's not necessarily always the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, it's worth paying attention to what they're saying for all of us -- draftniks or not.
As always, we'll get the ball rolling by looking at an incoming offensive coordinator -- in this case, one who fits right into the post-combine conversation . . .
Getting Coordinated: Bears
According to ChicagoBears.com's Larry Mayer, a discussion with former Seahawks coach Pete Carroll helped convince Chicago head man Matt Eberflus to hire Shane Waldron as offensive coordinator.
"I had a real long conversation with Pete when . . . We were in the interview process," Eberflus said at the combine. "He just gleamed about Shane and talked about him at length about his ability to adapt and adjust, and what he did with the quarterbacks that were in Seattle. I was very comfortable moving forward with Shane in that."
We should not be surprised to hear Eberflus or anybody associated with the Bears using the words "adapt," "adjust," and "quarterback" in the same sentence.
The team's looming decision at the position -- whether to keep Justin Fields or move on and use the first pick overall in April's NFL Draft to select USC's Caleb Williams -- is among the most talked-about storylines this offseason. So much so that Fields unfollowed the Bears and the NFL on his social media feeds to avoid some of the chatter.
More about that in a moment.
Let's get back to Waldron, who is associated with Sean McVay from his time with the Rams, and what makes him the right guy to run Chicago's offense.
First of all, as NBCSportsChicago.com's Josh Schrock noted, Waldron "is seen as adaptable, creative, and an 'elite' play-caller who molds his offense to fit what his personnel does best."
Waldron spent the past three seasons in the same role on Carroll's staff in Seattle, working with quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Geno Smith. Wilson threw for 25 touchdowns with six interceptions and a 103.1 passer rating in 2021, while Smith earned NFL Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2022 after leading the league in completion percentage (69.8) and ranking fourth in TD passes (30), fifth in passer rating (100.9), and eighth in passing yards (4,282).
And Eberflus is here for that.
"It's really about [Waldron's] track record. You have his head coach that was with him say those words about him and talk to me at length about it, and then me watch the tape and what he actually did with all those quarterbacks, to me, that's proof."
Waldron realizes he's walking into a quarterback situation in flux. But the new play-caller is confident his scheme will fit Fields, a rookie, or whoever might end up as the team's QB this offseason.
"Yeah, I totally believe that," Waldron said via ESPN.com's Courtney Cronin during his introductory news conference. "I think in the past, I had experiences with different quarterbacks and different experience levels, whether I was in the coordinator role or in a role as a position coach, and I felt that way.
"I felt different quarterbacks have been able to step foot into the system, be able to learn it quickly, and that starts with us being able to teach it in a good and efficient manner where they understand it."
Asked more specifically about how much of his interview centered around his plans for Fields or a college quarterback, Cronin reports Waldron expressed that his plans for the Bears offense revolved around "adaptability." Once the scheme is installed, Waldron said Chicago will "adjust the scheme to the player's skill set," including the quarterback.
Adapt. Adjust. Get used to it . . .
Beyond the quarterback situation (again, more on that below), USA Today's Tim Weaver offered the following what the newcomer brings to the table: "Waldron modernized Carroll's offense, as much as it might be possible to do so . . . Waldron implemented much more pre-snap motion, throwing on first down, scheming players open for YAC and other modern ideas that had been missing for far too long."
The Seahawks ranked 17th in the NFL in scoring defense and 21st in yards allowed in 2023. While it's unclear what Chicago's offense will look like come training camp, Waldron will be looking to improve a unit that ranked 18th in the NFL in points and 20th in total yards last season.
The quarterback will be important.
Fortunately -- for all involved -- we should gain clarity on that soon . . .
Chicago Looking Far A-Fields
As you might expect, Eberflus took numerous questions about Fields at the combine. One answer in particular was telling.
"If Justin's back, we'll have a plan in place for that; if there's a new quarterback, we'll have a plan in place for that," Eberflus said at one point.
When your most definitive take on a given situation starts with "if," that's a message in and of itself . . .
Indeed, general manager Ryan Poles reinforced that message when he said the Bears would try to "do right" by Fields and trade him before free agency opens if they plan on using the No. 1 pick on a new quarterback.
For the record, Williams met with Eberflus, Poles, and other Bears' coaches and team officials at the combine. They spent the 15 or so minutes picking his brain in Indy.
Williams said he needs them to answer only one question: "Just do you want to win? That is it."
Worth noting . . . Cecil Lammey and Bloom discussed Williams in depth on The Audible this past Tuesday, with Lammey, coming off his trip to the combine, willing to plant his flag: "Williams is the No. 1 pick."
One more tidbit here . . . I recently spoke with long-time NFL reporter Hub Arkush, executive editor of Pro Football Weekly, who, in addition to believing Michigan's J.J. McCarthy might be the best quarterback in this draft, also thinks the Bears should be interested.
If you check the Footballguys DraftGuide, the ideal scheme fit for McCarthy is "a Shanahan or McVay-tree scheme would be perfect, as McCarthy consistently delivers the ball on time and to the correct read."
Still, Lammey remains on board with McCarthy replacing the just-released Wilson in Denver with the 12th pick overall next month.
But there could be a problem there.
Denver's No. 12 pick sits in the middle of a pair of teams -- the Vikings (No. 11) and Raiders (No. 13) -- that also might be in the market for a rookie QB; things could get dicey -- especially with reports coming out of the combine that Las Vegas could be looking to move up for a quarterback.
That brings us to what's likely to be the biggest story of the coming week . . .
Who's Kissing Cousins?
With Kirk Cousins moving closer to unrestricted free agency, SI.com's Albert Breer recently reported the Vikings are unwilling to give the quarterback a fully guaranteed contract.
This is a deviation from the norm. Since he signed in Minnesota, all of Cousins' contracts were fully guaranteed.
With this shift, the door is open for teams like the Falcons, Raiders, Commanders, and others who need help at the position as we head into free agency.
In fact, the buzz from the combine suggested Cousins is the No. 1 choice of the Falcons.
Zach Klein of WSB-TV in Atlanta put it like this: "Everybody I've talked to says the logical thing is a veteran move; all eyes, all arrows, everything points to Cousins. [Falcons owner] Arthur Blank has basically told his front office staff, 'Do what you got to do, pay what you got to pay, get it done.' Everybody that I've talked to, agents, other coaches and scouts, and guys around the league, that's the feeling, and that's what they are hearing. The Falcons are putting all their attention on Cousins."
The Athletic's Dianna Russini added this after talking to her sources at the combine: "[The Falcons] believe Cousins is the type of player who moves them from a fringe playoff team to a contender."
While ESPN insider Jeremy Fowler subsequently suggested Atlanta won't overpay, Dynasty managers invested in Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson would be okay with that . . .
But wait . . . I recently spoke with Ben Standig, who covers the Commanders for The Athletic. In acknowledging that Sam Howell is no longer viewed as the quarterback of the future, Standig explained that the team will certainly have options available with the second pick overall that they grade well ahead of the incumbent starter.
One of them would be Williams, who has a connection with incoming Commanders coordinator Kliff Kingsbury from their time together at USC last season. But that would require trading up, and it appears the die has been cast in Chicago.
Standig added to all that last week by advising his X followers the idea of Cousins returning to play for Washington "isn't some inconceivable fever dream." Standig explained that, in conjunction with a trade down from No. 2, signing Cousins "puts the Commanders on a simultaneous path to rebuild, boost vibes -- and win now."
Meanwhile, ESPN's Dan Graziano reported this morning the Vikings are still in it, but they're willing to let it play out, something GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah indicated with this less-than-definitive take on the veteran triggerman at the combine:
"It's certainly my intention to bring him back here," Adofo-Mensah said . . .
Jefferson: A Factor In The QB Equation
Justin Jefferson needs a new contract. From the Vikings' perspective, the sooner that deal is done, the better. The longer they wait, the more costly his next deal becomes.
Assuming they will ultimately pay up for Jefferson, as team officials do the calculus at quarterback, the star receiver's view of the situation has to be a factor.
"I'll really have to see if we really bring back Kirk or not; if we decide we want to draft or want to pick up a quarterback," Jefferson told NFL.com's Grant Gordon when recently asked if he would pass on doing a deal this summer if there's still uncertainty as to who the long-term QB will be. "All of that plays a part, but also, I still managed to get 1,000 yards by playing through four different quarterbacks as well, so it really doesn't matter too much who's throwing me that ball as long as someone's throwing it to me."
But again, Jefferson has a preference.
"I'm always confident in my game, confident that I'm going to play the same no matter who's going to throw me the ball, but of course, having Kirk out there to be that leader and that captain, to throw that ball with accuracy and precise as he does, it definitely is very valuable and useful being a receiver."
It's clear Jefferson wants Cousins back, but it's just as clear that if Cousins doesn't return, Jefferson has no doubts he'll continue to produce. As he mentioned, he did so last year with Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall each filling in after Cousins tore his Achilles.
From a fantasy perspective, Jefferson's argument makes total sense.
I talk about it often: Less-than-ideal quarterback situations don't destroy good receivers.
Jefferson is a great receiver.
Eye-popping numbers and jaw-dropping catches have become standard during his first four seasons as a pro. His remarkable abilities have granted him "quarterback-proof" status with me. And, as suggested above, they're going to make him a lot of money.
Indeed, Jefferson, who is just 24 years old, should easily surpass Tyreek Hill's $30 million-per-year deal.
Minnesota can structure the deal to lower the wideout's 2024 cap hit ($19.743 million), opening more room this year to spend on a quarterback (Cousins) or numerous defensive free agents. This feels like one of those situations where playing it year to year with the fifth-year option and franchise tags will only make things more expensive in the long run (and, in the meantime, clog the Vikings' flexibility with the rest of their roster).
The other option would be to trade him now and let someone else give him that contract.
Adofo-Mensah had a much more strident take on that at the combine, unequivocally telling reporters trading Jefferson "is not something that's once crossed my mind . . ."
Final Quarterback Notes Of The Week
Zack Rosenblatt of the Athletic and Seth Walder of ESPN have closely examined the quarterback situations for all 32 teams. Both of them have Cousins landing in Atlanta.
They both also had Baker Mayfield remaining a Buccaneer, which came to pass a short time ago when Mayfield agreed to terms on a new, three-year deal with Tampa Bay.
Perhaps more interesting, Rosenblatt has the Browns trading for Fields to back up Deshaun Watson.
Again, clarity on all this -- and more -- draws nigh, and . . .
It's About To Get Crazy
While the quarterback turnover will be of great interest, running backs will also be a thing -- albeit a lower-paid thing.
This year's unrestricted free-agent RB class is headlined by Saquon Barkley and includes Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, and D'Andre Swift, among others.
As ESPN's Adam Schefter characterized it, "Best class of RBs in free agent history."
With the top three free-agent wideouts -- Mike Evans, who re-signed with the Buccaneers last Monday, Michael Pittman Jr, franchise tagged by the Colts last week, and Tee Higgins, tagged by the Bengals -- off the market, the top tier of available talent now features Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown, and Gabe Davis.
The tight-end class was diminished when Dalton Schultz got a new deal in Houston, and Hunter Henry re-signed with the Patriots this week. Gerald Everett is currently at the top of the available heap, which says a lot about the heap . . .
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Now, let's buckle up and brew some coffee. It's going to be a heck of a ride. Of course, Footballguys is the place to watch for all the latest and greatest, whether it's free agency, trades, or the incoming rookie class.
And I'll see you back here in this same spot next week.
