Some of you might be surprised to learn I'm currently in five best ball drafts and working my way through a handful of mocks, including a Footballguys staff Superflex Dynasty startup (you can learn more about that from Alfredo Brown, Dave Kluge, Joey Wright, and Jagger May on the Footballguys YouTube channel).
I say "some of you" might be surprised because I know it's not all of you.
I know this because there's no shortage of people out there running through the best ball mean streets with me right now. Those who are surprised might wonder why on earth we would start drafting teams in February.
It's simple: Reps matter.
It's a great way to prepare for the drafts that mean the most to you, the ones you'll be sitting down for in late August and early September.
Yes, many things will change over the coming months, weeks, and even days. Often in real-time during drafts. Sometimes, right as you're making selections.
Drafting early and often is a way to steep ourselves in the subject. It's one path to gaining a robust understanding of values and Average Draft Position (ADP) that will pay dividends. However you choose to acquire it, that in-depth knowledge is how you set yourself up for success.
Of course, even if you're not diving into the draft pool in February, the fact you're reading this article puts you ahead of the curve. Along those same lines, I'd like to point out that all the initial Footballguys 2024 Rankings, Redraft, Dynasty, Rookie, and Best Ball, are available now.
With that out of the way, let's start this Fantasy Notebook with our weekly look at an incoming offensive coordinator before we move on to other fun stuff.
Getting Coordinated: Panthers
In Carolina, new head coach Dave Canales hired a familiar (to him) face as his offensive coordinator. Brad Idzik, who followed Canales from Seattle to Tampa Bay to coach the Buccaneers wide receivers last season, will again follow Canales, this time to the Panthers.
Canales, however, will call plays for the Panthers, as he did as the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last season.
Idzik, 32, has never called plays.
Canales had a successful 2023 campaign as a first-time NFL play-caller. He helped Baker Mayfield achieve career highs in passing yards (4,044), touchdowns (28), and completion percentage (64.3) and, in turn, helped the Buccaneers return to the playoffs after claiming a third straight NFC South title.
As I first outlined in my instant reaction to this hire, Canales landed a six-year contract to help turn around the career of Bryce Young, who had a historically lousy rookie season after being selected with the top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.
In case you somehow missed it (and for those heavily invested in Panthers skill players not named Adam Thielen, that might have been on purpose), the Panthers went 2-14 in Young's 16 starts (he missed one game because of an ankle injury). The rookie signal caller threw 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a 59.8 completion percentage.
Nonetheless, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reports the Panthers believe Young "is not broken" and that Canales will bring stability for the young quarterback.
While Mayfield is the most recent success story connected to Canales, it's not the only one. Canales was the quarterbacks coach for Seattle in 2022 when Geno Smith passed for a career-high 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns with a 69.8 completion percentage. Canales believes the lessons he learned working with Mayfield and Smith in their bounce-back seasons will apply to a younger student coming off a rough rookie year.
Even though the Young he saw in person twice last year wasn't good -- Young was 26-of-49 for 272 yards with no touchdowns, four interceptions, and seven sacks in two games against the Bucs -- Canales, who evaluated the Alabama star for Tampa Bay heading into last year's draft, is choosing to see the newcomer's struggles as an opportunity for growth.
"The cool part is I have a whole season," Canales told the Panthers' official website. "I have 16 games of NFL film to watch of him . . . So, I can lean on a lot of the things that I wrote up in my (pre-draft) reports about him. In my report, I just wrote, he's got everything you want."
Getting the job done in Carolina will require more than coaching up and maximizing the talent of his signal caller.
NFL.com's Kevin Patra put it like this: "The Panthers must upgrade their weapons around Young, providing someone -- anyone! -- besides Thielen who can get open. With no first-round pick this year, they might need to "overpay" in free agency -- a la Jacksonville adding Christian Kirk -- along with using one of their Day 2 picks to add playmakers."
More specifically, as Fowler suggests, a vertical receiver who can serve a Mike Evans-type role for Canales, as we saw in Tampa.
Fowler included Tee Higgins on that list of targets, but the Bengals put the kibosh on that last Friday night when we learned the team would franchise tag the wideout.
(By the way, the Footballguys 2024 Free Agent Tracker is up and running, so check in on the regular, folks.)
Evans himself might be available if Tampa doesn't re-sign him. Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz reported this past Monday that Evans is trending toward becoming a free agent, barring an unexpected change.
The #Buccaneers had a soft deadline today to get an extension done with Pro Bowl WR Mike Evans, but both sides remain far apart, sources say. Tampa Bay is set to take on $7.4M in 2024 dead money by not getting a deal done today. @BleacherReport
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) February 19, 2024
Talks will continue, but my… pic.twitter.com/fNJJFuRceH
It's safe to say that whoever the Panthers get to serve as their new WR1, there will be significant changes to the receiving corps. Thielen and rookie Jonathan Mingo will likely remain in place, but D.J. Chark Jr and Laviska Shenault Jr are unrestricted free agents, while Terrace Marshall Jr has never gained the traction expected.
This is where Idzik, whose specialty has been developing receivers, likely comes into play.
The Seahawks' Tyler Lockett had more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of his four seasons with Idzik. From 2019 to 2022, Idzik's receivers had the second-most receiving touchdowns (92) in the league, the third-most air yards per target (11.6), and the seventh-highest receiving percentage (65.7).
The wideouts, of course, won't be doing much pass protection. Sadly, the same could have been said for the Panthers' offensive line last year.
Young was sacked 62 times in 16 games, tying a franchise record and reaching the sixth-highest total in league history. As Panthers.com explained earlier this month, "A lot of that had to do with their struggles to keep a stable offensive line in front of him (they used seven left guards and eight right guards). But it was also a part of a systemic breakdown on offense, which led to a coaching change and a new direction. The whole thing was busted, from fundamentals to routes to language, the lot of it.
"That's why Canales wants to keep the emphasis on the whole of the offense rather than putting the whole focus on Young."
What should fantasy managers take away from all this?
First, we should remember Carolina's offense finished last in the NFL in yards per game (265.3) and tied for last in scoring (13.9 points per game).
As I see it, an immediate turnaround doesn't fall on the "most likely" end of the range of possible outcomes, but there will be pieces of interest because . . .
Everybody . . . At The Right Price
In recent years, I've made a concerted effort not to overlook receivers we view as having less-than-ideal quarterbacks or who play in lackluster offenses.
This just in: They can still produce (see Lockett and DK Metcalf, who were both top-20 fantasy producers at their position with Smith in 2022; or Amari Cooper, who finished as WR8 with Jacoby Brissett as his starter most of that same season; or Evans, who finished as WR4 in 2023).
So, while I'm not an enthusiastic endorser of Carolina's offense, it's worth looking back on the value a player like Thielen provided fantasy managers in 2023 and thinking about how we should process that.
With 103 catches for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns, Thielen, who finished the year as WR18, represents the archetypical late-round receiver in a lousy offense with uncertainty at quarterback.
Looking back, BleacherNation.com had Thielen as the 54th wide receiver off the board (with the 138th overall) in fantasy drafts held the first week of last September.
He wasn't alone in far outperforming expectations.
Houston's Nico Collins, the 58th wide receiver off the board last summer (148th overall), finished 2023 as WR12.
Both Thielen and Collins were drafted at WR5 prices. They both came through with notably different QB outcomes.
The simple take is: Draft good players at great prices.
The broader view is every player has value at the right price, even those in horrible offenses (real, as it turns out, or perceived) . . .
In a related item, let's touch on Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard, who closed out last August with an ADP of 181 overall (57th at his position), well behind Miles Sanders, Carolina's high-priced free-agent addition, who went much earlier (as RB21 with an ADP of 51).
While Sanders closed out as a disappointing RB50, Hubbard finished at RB28 and was a great example of something Footballguy Jeff Bell stressed in his retrospective 2023 Perfect Draft article: "Target ambiguity late" at running back.
And in leagues where Hubbard went undrafted?
Reflecting on What We Learned At Running Back In 2023, Sigmund Bloom wrote: "We won't be afraid to spend big on Week 1 waiver wire wonders or backups who become rest-of-season starters because of injury" in 2024.
I couldn't agree more on both counts.
Moore, The Overlooked Part Of Fields Drama
The drama intensified in Chicago, where, as the New York Post first reported, we suddenly got another reason to believe Justin Fields and the Bears are about to part ways after the quarterback appeared to cut ties with the club on Instagram.
According to Post staffer Jenna Lemoncelli, social media began buzzing when fans noticed Fields was no longer following Chicago's official Instagram account.
On Wednesday, Fields explained why he unfollowed the team during an appearance with his Bears teammate Equanimeous St. Brown and Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on their St. Brown Bros podcast.
Justin Fields reveals to the St. Brown brothers why he unfollowed the Bears on Instagram, via @The33rdTeamFB.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 21, 2024
📹 https://t.co/PVuPFC1Ivd pic.twitter.com/b8zPSPDxMM
Fields asked why "people take social media so seriously" and said, "Of course," he wants to remain with the Bears while noting that it's not up to him.
The Bears, who have the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, have been linked to USC quarterback Caleb Williams. Landing Williams would put an end to Fields' time in Chicago.
As the St. Brown brothers continued to press Fields, the third-year man explained he wants football off his screen during an upcoming vacation because he's "tired of hearing the talk" about whether the Bears should trade him or keep him.
His stance is understandable. Fields is seeing the same things in his social media feeds that you are.
"I'm trying to take a little break. I unfollowed the Bears and the NFL; I'm not just trying to have football on my timeline," Fields added.
Bloom and Cecil Lammey discussed the top in-depth on The Audible early last week, expressing their belief that discussions will heat up at this week's NFL Scouting Combine.
Chicago could trade Fields before the free-agent signing period begins on March 13. Last week's Fantasy Notebook explained that the Falcons have been consistently linked in trade speculation. The Steelers and Raiders are other potential suitors. Meanwhile, Footballguy Christian Williams has Caleb Williams going to Chicago at No. 1 overall in his Mock Draft 4.0.
All this will be sorted out in time.
Until then, we'll all likely share in Fields' view: "Whatever happens, happens. I feel like the biggest thing going on with this right now is I just want it to be over. Just let me know if I'm getting traded; let me know if I'm staying."
In the interim, it's fair to wonder how fantasy managers should view DJ Moore.
Big things were expected of the veteran wideout in the Windy City after he was part of the deal that sent Chicago's first pick overall to Carolina, allowing the Panthers to land Young.
Moore delivered.
He finished his first season as a Bear with 96 catches (on 136 targets), 1,364 receiving yards, and eight touchdowns to land as WR6 for fantasy managers. Of course, Moore's totals with Fields as his triggerman are of great interest. Per FantasyPros, in those 12 games, Moore averaged 16.8 points per game, racked up over 1,100 receiving yards, and scored all of his touchdowns. He averaged 91 receiving yards per game during those 12 outings.
That's pretty good.
It's so good that FantasyPros contends we'll "need to adjust expectations" if Fields gets replaced by a rookie QB, as "that will likely hinder Moore's fantasy upside in 2024."
I hope people buy into that because, for me, Moore has earned "quarterback-proof" status.
Remember, he topped 1,100 receiving yards in three straight seasons (2019-21) despite Carolina's unstable quarterback situation (he played with late-career Cam Newton, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker) before his production dipped in 2022. Still, he set a career-best for touchdown receptions, with Mayfield and Darnold starting at least five games each that year.
Moore had three 100-yard receiving games that season and averaged more than 25 yards per catch in two of those contests and 19.5 in the other.
Beyond all that, Moore had 5,201 receiving yards in five seasons as a Panther. That consistent production over time -- often coming with less-than-ideal quarterback situations (do you see a theme emerging here?) -- explains why Moore sits at WR11 in our initial 2024 Draft Rankings.
Footballguy Jason Wood's initial projection for Moore is 93.5 catches, 1,317 yards, and seven touchdowns.
That puts Moore only one off the WR10 spot he holds in our current Best Ball Rankings and Underdog ADP.
Here's hoping the move at QB -- if and when it comes -- drives that price down. If that happens, don't shy away people. Reap the value . . .
Is Watson Trending Positive Really . . . Positive?
In Cleveland, there was some positive news on the injury front for the Browns and their starting quarterback.
Deshaun Watson is on track in his rehab from shoulder surgery -- maybe even a little ahead -- and will begin throwing soon, a league source told Cleveland Plain Dealer staffer Mary Kay Cabot.
Is that good news?
Watson, 28, has played in just 12 games for the Browns over the last two seasons. They were 5-1 in games he started in 2023, but one was effectively won by Walker, who served as his backup at times. In six 2023 contests, Watson completed 61.4 percent of his throws for 1,115 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. He also rushed for 142 yards with a TD.
With Watson out, Joe Flacco led the Browns to the playoffs for the second time in four seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski.
Meanwhile, Cabot notes that Watson recently lobbied hard for the Browns to sign Higgins, but that won't happen. Chances are, the Browns wouldn't have pursued him anyway.
Price notwithstanding, they already have their top two pass-catchers in Cooper, a five-time Pro Bowler with a $23.77 million cap charge in 2024, and David Njoku, with an average salary of $13.687 million. While they'll likely add to the receiver room, the expectation isn't breaking the bank for a Pro Bowl-caliber wideout.
There are other more affordable ones, such as the Bills' Gabe Davis, who has a market value of about $13.622 million a year. Davis, who spent the past four seasons with incoming Browns coordinator Ken Dorsey in Buffalo, caught 45 passes for 746 yards and seven TDs in 2023, the exact kind of production the Browns can use from an additional receiver.
Arizona's Marquise Brown is another possibility.
Whatever the case, Cabot contends, "injecting confidence in Watson after a rocky two years in Cleveland is job No. 1," and general manager Andrew Berry should realize pairing Cooper with a legitimate partner is necessary for the offense to reach its potential.
What about Njoku?
Rotoworld's Zachary Krueger laid out the problem nicely last month.
"In 11 career games with Watson," Krueger wrote, "Njoku has averaged 9.0 fantasy points per game. In five career games with Flacco, Njoku has averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game. One of these quarterbacks is expected to return as the Browns' starter in 2024, and it isn't Flacco."
While I have concerns about Njoku with Watson, the tight end's ADP, currently TE9 on Underdog, isn't prohibitive.
What about the QB?
As Bloom framed it this week: "[Watson] is significantly cheaper in drafts (around QB20) than he was in 2023. If Dorsey and the surgery work out, he'll be a big value in fantasy drafts."
You know what I'm thinking?
That's heading towards "at the right price" territory. . .
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Unless you randomly run into me on a Carribean beach (where I'll likely be perusing the Footballguys Rookie Draft Guide), you won't see me next week. But I'll be returning from vacation in plenty of time to get back in the mix before the start of free agency. If you miss me, you can read all my previous articles, read everybody else's articles, and scan our newsfeed at your leisure.
