As I told you two weeks ago, in advance of the Conference Championship edition of this column, "if you're playing DFS tournaments, nobody is -- or should be -- off-limits," given the two-game slate.
This week, we're down to one game, narrowing the field even further. So much so that we're going to make this week's column an outlier-only In and Out -- and, more importantly, an "All In" edition.
With a single contest on the slate, I will take my zero-chalk stance even further than I have the last two playoff weekends. Instead of throwing out the highest-ranked player at each position, I'm digging deeper this week by ruling out both starting quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends, and the top three wideouts on the board.
That group is, as always, determined by the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections.
You should play Patrick Mahomes II, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle as you see fit. I like them in the order of their Footballguys rankings.
With that out of the way, we'll be looking at every skill player available beyond that, which means we'll be playing hunches.
These choices are risky by nature.
The goal is to provide details that might help you validate (or rule out) your hunches.
My Favorite Hunch
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Unsurprisingly, my favorite has the most prominent post-season role in his respective offense among the outliers. Not that it's yielded significant outcomes. In the regular season, Valdes-Scantling was one of a handful of Chiefs pass catchers who struggled to fulfill the catching portion of his job description. But he delivered when it mattered the most: In January. After pulling in 21 passes for 315 yards with a TD in the regular season, Valdes-Scantling has five catches for 108 yards so far in the playoffs, including a 32-yard reception late in the fourth quarter to seal Kansas City's victory over Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game. This week, MVS seems best positioned to deliver a similar big play (or plays) of all the outliers. That said, MVS has scored zero TDs in the previous 12 games overall and zero TDs in his last four playoff games. He did, however, have a TD in each of his three post-season outings before that (two with Kansas City in 2022 and one with Green Bay in 2020). As Footballguy Devin Knotts characterized it in this week's Passing Matchups article, this is a tough one for Kansas City. They will need a big play, and MVS could get the call (having fellow Footballguy Dan Hindery in on this one is comforting).
A Viable But Less-Likely Possibility
Jauan Jennings
With Samuel sidelined after sustaining a shoulder injury against the Packers in the Divisional round of the playoffs, Jennings stepped up as the "Z" receiver in his place. The third-year man caught five of his six targets for 61 receiving yards, four for first downs. Unfortunately, Jennings, who has become known as "Third-and-Jauan" thanks to his penchant for coming through in a pinch, becomes an afterthought when Samuel is healthy. With Deebo at full speed against the Lions, Jennings was on the field for just 42 percent of the snaps. He drew just two targets. I expect more of the same in Vegas on Sunday, but Hindery believes the playing time will be more than sufficient.
The Gordian Knot Of Remaining Chiefs Receiving Assets
Noah Gray, Justin Watson, Richie James, Mecole Hardman Jr., Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore
Should you choose this route, sorting out this nearly insoluble choice is going to be on you. But I am here to help.
Gray has surpassed Watson to rank fourth behind Kelce, Rice, and Valdes-Scantling in the team's receiving hierarchy. Still, in nine career playoff games (all with the Chiefs), Gray has just 11 catches on 17 targets, 95 total receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.
Watson's regular-season role was better than the post-season version. Over 16 regular-season games, the fifth-year man drew 8.9 percent of the team's targets, well ahead of Valdes-Scantling's 6.8 percent. Watson's 26 percent air-yard share also surpassed Valdes-Scantling's 19.3 percent. Those numbers have reversed in the playoffs, with Watson falling to a 4.9 percent target share and 9.3 percent air-yard share, well behind both Valdes-Scantling and Gray.
James ran just seven routes and drew a single target in Baltimore. Still, that puts him ahead of the rest of the field here. Factor in his opportunities as a return man and- for those who buy into it- the "revenge game" narrative that comes from James' three-season stint with the Niners to further bolster our confidence (relatively speaking, of course).
It's fair to wonder if Hardman is in the doghouse after committing what could have been a costly fumble during the fourth quarter of the team's divisional-round win in Buffalo. Kansas City held on for the win, but Hardman was only on the field for one offensive snap against the Ravens a week later. Hardman has, however, scored three touchdowns (one receiving, two rushing) in two career games versus the 49ers.
Toney has been out of the lineup since Week 15, and it's still up in the air whether he'll suit up at Allegiant Stadium this weekend. As CBS Sports reminded readers, we know what Toney can do on football's biggest stage -- he recorded the longest punt return in Super Bowl history last year -- but his issue with drops (five in 2023 alone) will make for an interesting decision when the inactive list is finalized (ESPN's Adam Schefter reported early on game day that Toney is unlikely to be active).
Moore, who was activated off of injured reserve Wednesday, has not played since suffering a knee injury in Week 15. His absence hasn't exactly been noticeable. Still, Moore caught five passes for 17 yards in last year's postseason, including a 4-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LVII.
The pre-game inactive list will likely narrow this group down for you.
RBs Requiring Fortuitous Circumstances
Elijah Mitchell, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kyle Juszczyk
A knee injury forced Mitchell to miss some time this season, though the Niners veteran backup was healthy enough to step in for McCaffrey, who was dealing with a calf strain, in the final two weeks. In those two games (Mitchell started in Week 18), he had 31 carries, 132 rushing yards, and a pair of touchdowns. How can you roll Mitchell out in a lineup this weekend? Tell yourself a happy story about the 49ers boat-racing the Chiefs, or look back no further than the NFC Championship game. The 25-year-old finished with just six snaps on offense, with most of his reps coming late in the win over Detroit after McCaffrey exited in the fourth quarter after coming just a few yards short of his third rushing touchdown on the night. Mitchell benefited by punching in a three-yard touchdown. As Knotts noted in this week's Rushing Matchups, Kansas City's run defense is tough. But it can be had. Just be mindful that Mitchell hasn't been a factor in the postseason beyond that. Over the two playoff games, he has seven total snaps with four carries, seven rushing yards, and that touchdown.
Edwards-Helaire's chances of randomly finding the end zone improved noticeably on Tuesday. That's when we learned Jerick McKinnon, activated from injured reserve last week, is unlikely to play. "Jerick is not practicing. I tell ya, it's slim for him to be out there," head coach Andy Reid said. So what are CEH's chances of being a viable touchdown dart-toss? Making two starts in place of an injured Pacheco in December, the former first-round pick averaged fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in each contest. Expecting him to get the right combination of circumstances to find the end zone in this one (his anytime touchdown odds are set at +600) is a long shot. That shot gets longer if McKinnon, who was added to the active roster Saturday afternoon and is listed as questionable) plays, and he becomes an equally viable touchdown guess if that's the case.
Little-known fact: Juszczyk was the first Harvard graduate to score a touchdown in a Super Bowl. Adding to the intrigue, it came when Kansas City and San Francisco played each other in Super Bowl LIV. While it turned out to be a 31-20 Chiefs win, Juszczyk found paydirt on a 15-yard TD reception from Jimmy Garoppolo in the second quarter. While there aren't many positives beyond that, the man GM John Lynch dubbed an "offensive weapon" when signed away from the Ravens is sure to be active for this game. The downside? As San Francisco Chronicle staffer Scott Ostler wrote, "The 49ers fullback touches the ball about as often as the cheerleaders do." To that point, Juszczyk carried the ball only five times this season and caught just 14 passes, his lowest reception mark of the past 10 seasons. Tread lightly, kids.
The Hail Marys of Dart Tosses
Welcome to the bottom of the barrel. Be mindful that McKinnon, Chiefs TE Blake Bell, 49ers WRs Ronnie Bell, Ray-Ray McCloud III and Chris Conley, Chiefs WR Justyn Ross, 49ers RB Jordan Mason, Chiefs RB La'Mical Perine, and 49ers TEs Charlie Woerner and Brayden Willis would need to be active to be the most outlierest of outliers on the day.
Conference Championship Accountability Report
It's time to review the Conference Championship Edition and count up Hits and Misses. These are subjective, but the idea is to be very accountable. In other words, no free passes for me.
I was in on three players: 49ers QB Brock Purdy, Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs, and his teammate, wide receiver Josh Reynolds. Purdy fared well enough but not well enough to call him a hit. His Footballguys projection was 19.15; he scored 17.5. Granted, he finished as QB2 (behind only Lamar Jackson, who I avoided as the top-ranked player at his position), but I'll take the miss on this one because the objective is going with players who outperform expectations, and Purdy didn't. Gibbs, on the other hand, squeaked one out for me. Projected at 14 points, the rookie delivered 14.6. Technically, a hit. In reality, three backs, including batterymate David Montgomery, who would have been the correct call here, outperformed the rookie. I'm going to take the miss on Gibbs for that reason. And Reynolds? As noted above, I love hunches. I had one here, but the desire to back my plays here with at least a modicum of statistical or matchup-based evidence kept me from going with Jamison Williams. It's responsible stewardship. The numbers said Reynolds was the better outlier play. He fell flat, delivering just 3.5 points (and a couple of crucial drops) on a day he was projected for 7.49.
I was out on the Ravens' tight-end tandem of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Both were solid hits. Andrews' projection was 11 points, but the Chiefs held him to 3.5. Likely was slated for 5.53. He finished with 3.6.
Last Week's Tally
- Hits - 2
- Misses - 3
Two-Week Tally
- Hits - 8
- Misses - 5
