Zack Moss: A Journeyman in Starter Clothing

Journeyman or Starter?

Zack Moss is a divisive player this year. The running back currently has an ADP of RB26 and 88th overall, but his outlook varies widely across the industry. At Footballguys, we're generally lower on Moss than the consensus.

• Consensus ADP: RB26
• Consensus Footballguys Ranking: RB34
  • 3 of 14 analysts rank Moss ahead of his ADP, with RB23 being the high mark
  • 5 of 14 analysts rank him lower between RB28 and RB32
  • 2 analysts rank him RB36 (the last of the RB3s in a 12-team league)
  • 4 of 14 analysts rank him lower than RB37, me included

The Bull and Bear Cases

The bullish case for Moss is as follows:

• Moss proved last year he could be a workhorse in Jonathan Taylor's stead in Indianapolis
• Cincinnati signed Moss in free agency
• The Bengals have a wide-open opportunity with Joe Mixon traded to Houston
• Quarterback Joe Burrow will remain healthy and keep opposing defenses honest

The bearish case for Moss, on the other hand:

• Moss is playing for his third team in five seasons
• The Bengals didn't commit significant money to signing Moss
• Moss' uninspiring career metrics are more predictive than his short sample size last year as a starter
• The Bengals offensive line grades below average, particularly as run blockers

Let's unpack each talking point...

Last Year's Streak

One of the hardest parts of being a fantasy football analyst is dealing with small sample sizes. Even if a player stays healthy, we only have a maximum of 17 games to analyze (previously 16 games a few years ago). This limited data can often lead to flawed statistical analysis based on small, largely unpredictable samples. We can get into trouble when we assume that a single season's performance is predictive. However, as fans of momentum and storytelling, we sometimes convince ourselves that smaller sample sizes are more predictive than they actually are.

Which brings us to Zack Moss' four-week span from last season. After spending 2.5 seasons in Buffalo, the Bills traded Moss to the Colts mid-season in 2022 in exchange for third-down specialist Nyheim Hines. He was a part-time contributor in 2022 and entered the 2023 season as Jonathan Taylor's backup. With Taylor out to start the season in his recovery from a torn ACL, Moss was inactive in Week 1, too (an arm injury from camp), but was active and started in Taylor's place in Weeks 2 through 5.

Weeks 2 through 5, 2023

• 84% of Snaps
• 89 rushes
• 445 rush yards
• 3 rush TDs
• 8 receptions
• 72 receiving yards
• 1 receiving TD
• 79.7 fantasy points (0.5 PPR)
• No. 4-ranked fantasy RB

That four-game stretch is the main reason why people are excited about Moss this year. The logic goes, "When given the chance, Zack Moss proved he can be a top-10 fantasy back." 

But that's faulty logic for a number of reasons:

1. A four-game sample size isn't predictive
2. Moss' production over that four-game span wasn't all the unusual
3. Moss looked far less impressive in two other stints as the Colts' fill-in starter

Moss' 4-week stretch was 1 in 409

Our friends at Stathead have tons of amazing data-farming tools, including something called the Span Finder. That allows you to search for statistical parameters over a period of consecutive games. Using the tool, I searched for the following:

• Running Backs
• At least 517 yards from scrimmage (Moss' total)
• At least 4 touchdowns (Moss' total)
• Over 4 games in the same season
• The last 20 years (2004-2023)

The results may surprise you. In the last twenty years, there have been 409 four-week spans that match or exceed Moss' totals. FOUR. HUNDRED. AND. NINE. instances. Does that sound like an impressive feat?

Players with at least one 4-games stretch of 517 yards and 4 TDs (2004-2023)

Takeaways:

• 409 instances in 20 years
• 403 of those 409 were better fantasy spans than Moss
• 78 different running backs have done it at least once

Moss' other stints as the Colts starter

• Moss was a far more pedestrian performer in his other five starts with the Colts
• Most notably, he returned to the starting lineup later in the 2023 season and mustered a disappointing RB30 performance