The 10 Fantasy Busts Who Will Ruin Your Season Before it Starts

There is a word in fantasy football. A terrible word.

It's a word so vile, so horrifying, that it is mentioned only in hushed whispers. It causes nightmares so vivid that fantasy drafters have to seek professional help--from Dr. Smirnoff. It is the word no one--and I mean no one--wants to hear associated with their fantasy squad.

That word is mullet.

Good luck getting that song out of your head now. Fun fact--this analyst had a mullet back in the day. Actually, it was more of a frollet--long in the back, and absolute madness on top. It may have been self-aware.

Joking aside, that word (of course) is bust. As the old saying goes, "You can't win your league on draft day, but you can lose it." And one of the surest ways to do so is by drafting busts--players who fail to live up to their price tags.

Sometimes, it's unavoidable. Injuries are a sad fact of life in fantasy football. Yes, some players (and positions) are more prone to them than others. But if fantasy managers passed on every player who might get hurt, no one would draft running backs ever.

But there are times where fantasy busts can be avoided. Where the red flags are readily visible, even if some drafters choose not to see them. There are players who scream regression like the Final Girl in a slasher movie. Players whose situations have changed for the worse set to see a drop in touches or targets. And some players who are being overdrafted for no other reason save the name on the back of their jersey.

You can see some fantasy busts coming--and avoiding them is critical unless you want to wind up like Billy Ray Cyrus. A one-hit wonder.

Although having a daughter worth north of $150 million is something, I guess? 

"Wrecking Ball" and "Achy-Breaky Heart" (shudder) are at least apropos. 

Draft too many of the former, and fantasy managers will be doomed to the latter.

Season-Ruining Fantasy Busts

QB Josh Allen, Buffalo (ADP: QB1)

Allen is admittedly one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He's the reigning NFL MVP after throwing for over 3,700 yards last year and accounting for 40 total touchdowns--including 12 on the ground. He's also a terrible use of a second-round pick in one-QB fantasy leagues.

For all that Allen accomplished last season, he was fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. His passing yardage a season ago was his lowest total since 2019. If Allen's rushing touchdowns dip, his fantasy value is going to take a dip. And even if it doesn't, for Allen to return value, he needs to not just finish first among quarterbacks but blow mid-range and lower-end weekly starters out of the proverbial water.

This is less about Allen than being the first quarterback off the board. It doesn't work out often. As in ever.

QB Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City (ADP: QB6)

While I'm chucking big-name signal-callers under the bus, might as well talk about the best quarterback of his generation. This isn't about Mahomes' value to the Chiefs. It's about the fact that Mahomes hasn't thrown for 4,200 passing yards or thrown 30 touchdown passes since he was fantasy football's highest-scoring quarterback in 2022.

Granted, some of that drop-off was due to injuries among Kansas City's pass-catchers, and the return of a healthy Rashee Rice could give Mahomes his best stable of weapons in a while--on paper. But the argument can be made that the Chiefs are playing a more balanced style of football as much by design as due to circumstance, and going pass-wacky this year may not be easy behind an offensive line with multiple question marks.

RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia (ADP: RB1)

This is a drum I have been pounding on like Animal (If you don't get that reference, I weep for you) since the summer began, and by August, said drum will probably have a hole in it. There is no early first-rounder who is more guaranteed to wreck your fantasy team this year than Barkley, who was the NFL's ninth 2,000-yard rusher a year ago.

Even in that record-setting season, Barkley only finished .5 PPR points per game ahead of Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs. And between his ridiculous 2024 workload (well over 450 touches counting the playoffs), joining the "2K Club" (and what has happened to its members the year after rushing for 2,000 yards) and leading the league in rushing if Barkley doesn't lose at least 30 percent (best-case) of his fantasy points it will be a miracle. That best-case decline puts Barkley in high-end RB2 territory.

RB Breece Hall, New York Jets (ADP: RB13)

The temptation with Hall is evident--he has finished as a top-10 back in PPR points per game twice in three years. However, Hall has also never had a 1,000-yard season on the ground. His yards per carry have dropped in all three of his professional seasons, and he was RB17 in terms of PPR points per game a year ago.

Now, Hall is playing in a Jets offense with Justin Fields--and Fields has been bad news for fantasy backs in the past. Per Dave Richard of CBS Sports, Fields has started 44 career games. In those games, a running back has notched 15-plus PPR points 18 times, scored 25 times, and totaled at least 100 yards 11 times. If Hall only hits 15 PPR points seven times this year (math is depressing), he's not cracking the top-15. Maybe not even the top-20.

RB Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: RB15)

Hampton was highly productive at North Carolina--he rushed for over 1,500 yards in each of the past two seasons, averaging 5.9 yards per carry and scoring 15 touchdowns on the ground both times. The 6'0" 221-pounder has an every-down skill set and was drafted in Round 1 by a Los Angeles Chargers team that wants to run the ball a lot under Jim Harbaugh.

The problem is that before that, the Chargers also signed Najee Harris to a one-year deal. Harris may not be especially explosive (like a soaking-wet firecracker), but he's a proven veteran who never failed to hit 1,000 rushing yards in a season or miss a game in the NFL. Even if Hampton is as advertised, Harris isn't going to just vanish from the offense. Think of him as upside Dracula.

OK, we kind of already thought that way about Najee Harris.

WR Nico Collins, Houston (ADP: WR7)

Two years ago, Collins exploded into fantasy prominence, catching 80 passes, tallying almost 1,300 receiving yards, scoring eight touchdowns, and finishing as fantasy's WR12 in PPR points. Last year, five missed games caused Collins' overall production to dip, but he still topped 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight year and was 10th in PPR points per game among wideouts.

However, this year Collins is being drafted higher than both of those finishes. Despite the fact he has never missed less than three games in a season. Despite the fact that Collins' yards per reception dropped by almost 1.5 yards a year ago. And despite the fact that, while Stefon Diggs is gone and Tank Dell is hurt, there are two rookie wideouts and veteran Christian Kirk added to a Houston offense that was 21st in the league in passing in 2024.

WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati (ADP: WR12)

On some level, it's not hard to see why the Bengals invested a bag of cash in Higgins even after giving Ja'Marr Chase a truckload. In both 2021 and 2022, Higgins caught 74 passes and topped 1,000 receiving yards. The 26-year-old caught 10 touchdown passes in just 12 games last season. On more than a few NFL teams, Higgins would be the No. 1 wide receiver.

Of course, this isn't most places. This is Cincinnati, where Chase just won the receiving Triple Crown--in part because Higgins missed those five games. That marked the fifth time in as many years that Higgins missed time (including five contests in each of the past two seasons), and even if he could stay on the field, Chase remains far and away Joe Burrow's No. 1 target. WR1 target share isn't going to be easy to come by for Higgins--especially if the Bengals are actually good in 2025.

WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (ADP: WR14) 

Two years ago, Tyreek Hill was the fantasy king of all wide receivers--at least in the AFC. His 119 receptions trailed only CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys, and his 1,799 receiving yards led the NFL. It was Hill's third second-place finish in PPR points over a four-year span, and Hill was the first wideout drafted in quite a few leagues--if not the first pick overall.

That Hill is barely coming off the board in the top-15 at the position tells you quite a bit about how 2024 worked out--the 31-year-old failed to hit 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019 and finished a dismal 34th at his position in PPR points per game. Hill was visibly slower last year. At season's end he wanted out of Miami before backtracking. And the Dolphins' offense is one fat question mark. Other than that, everything's fine.

TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: TE5)

There's another saying in fantasy football (Actually, there are a million. Sayings. Proverbs. Fantasy football fortune cookies, if you will). It's "Don't chase ghosts." And as dismal as the depth may be at tight end in 2025, chasing ghosts is only reasonable explanation for why Hockenson is coming off the board inside the top-five at his position.

Two years ago, Hockenson was the NFC's highest-scoring tight end in terms of PPR points per game, ahead of No. 1 overall finisher Sam LaPorta of Detroit. But Hockenson tore his ACL late in the 2023 season and was a shell of himself last year, barely clearing 450 receiving yards and failing to find the end zone. Hoping Hockenson will regain his old form is one thing. Paying for it in advance is another.

TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: TE7)

Full confession--this Browns fan (sigh) cackled his behind off when Andrews dropped that two-point conversion in the playoffs against the Bills. May still be just a tad bitter about the whole, "having my team yanked out from under me and moved to Baltimore" thing. But at this point? Almost feel sorry for him. He's an excellent player who may well wind up in the Scott Norwood club--defined for eternity by one mistake.

However, Andrews' TE6 finish a year ago in PPR points is a mirage built on 11 touchdown catches and a torrid second half. At that point in the season he was on the waiver wire in shallow leagues--Andrews had six catches for 65 yards and a pair of doughnuts over the first month of 2024. Andrews is getting older. This is likely it for him with the Ravens. And it won't be even a lttle surprising if Isaiah Likely is a more productive fantasy asset in 2025.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on X at @IDPGodfather.