Sunday Morning Update:
Check back each Sunday around 10:30 AM EST for any changes to the slate, and the final Primary Cash Lineup.
Week 1 Recap
Week 1 went off with a good start to get the Primary Cash Lineup to 1-0 for the season. The cash game lineup finished Week 1 with 114.12 points, which finished in the top 25% of lineups on FanDuel. Led by the Broncos' defense scoring 14 points, and Emeka Egbuka scoring 21.6, this was not an overly great lineup, but the key to Week 1 was avoiding the Ja’Marr Chase trap. Chase was 50% rostered and had just 3.6 points as the Browns locked him and the entire Bengals offense down.
If there is one learning from Week 1, it is that the entire field moved away from Christian McCaffrey almost simultaneously. McCaffrey ended up being a fantastic play, as he was rostered in only 5-10% of lineups, and ended the day with 18.7 FanDuel points, which was the fourth-highest scoring running back on the slate.
Primary Cash Game Lineup
- QB Jayden Daniels- WAS $8,500-20.1
- RB Chase Brown, CIN, $6,900- 12.1
- RB Ashton Jeanty, LV, $6,400- 11.0
- WR Nico Collins, HOU, $7,900- 4.0
- WR Drake London, ATL, $7,000- 9.5
- WR Emeka Egbuka, TB, $5,000- 21.6
- TE Trey McBride, ARI, $6,300- 9.1
- Flex RB Alvin Kamara, NO, $7,100- 12.7
- TD Denver Broncos, $4,800- 14.0
Week 2 Tip-Continue 2024 Strategy Pay Up For Running Backs
It was mentioned in last week’s article that the optimal way to play DFS seems to change almost every season. Last season, it was pay up for running backs, while paying down for wide receivers, as the elite wide receivers outside of Ja’Marr Chase did not pay off at a level higher than the mid-tier. When looking at pricing, what we are trying to do is find the outliers of the players who are going to outperform their pricing tier.
Last season, the difference between the number two wide receiver and the number 15 wide receiver on a points-per-game basis was just 2.8 FanDuel points. Meanwhile, at running back, the difference between the number two and the 15th player was 6.2 FanDuel points. Now, when you factor in who finished number two on FanDuel last season at wide receiver, it is even more surprising, as Chris Godwin, who was often a mid-priced wide receiver last year, finished as the second-best point-per-game player on the site, whereas Derrick Henry finished number two at running back.
Week 1 seemed to continue that trend, as Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey both had tremendous games, while Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., Mike Evans, and Amon-Ra St. Brown all struggled. This could be a scenario where, in Week 2, we are re-evaluating the process where the wide receivers play a significant role, but for now, we have enough data to continue not wanting to pay up for wide receivers unless there is a significant injury. They’re simply too volatile, and while it’s great when the ceiling game hits, they can single-handedly wreck a week as they did to 50% of lineups with Chase last week.