Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Matchup Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 5.
Upper Left: These teams are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate average, making them strong candidates for potential shootouts. With Jayden Daniels returning after a two-week absence, the Commanders carry a solid 22.8 team total (ninth-highest on the slate) despite being 3.0-point underdogs against the Chargers. Deebo Samuel Sr. is an intriguing tournament option if you expect this game to turn into a shootout. The Jets also have a healthy 22.5 team total despite being 2.5-point underdogs at Dallas. Justin Fields, Breece Hall, and Garrett Wilson are all in appealing spots.
Upper Right: These teams are favored and projected to score above average, making them strong plays for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts here often favor running backs. The Lions boast a massive 30.0 team total as 10.5-point favorites against the struggling Bengals. Jahmyr Gibbs is expensive but brings slate-breaking upside. The Colts are 7.0-point favorites against the Raiders, setting up well for Jonathan Taylor to stay hot.
Bottom Right: Teams in this quadrant are favored but projected to score below average. Running backs can still benefit from positive game scripts, but passing games carry risk with low totals. It may be the only week of the season that the Saints enter as favorites. If ever there was a spot for Alvin Kamara to deliver a big performance, this is it. The Texans are also favored against the Cooper Rush-led Ravens, with Woody Marks emerging as the lead back last week.
Bottom Left: Teams here are underdogs and projected to score below average. Exposure should be limited to players you have a strong conviction about. Cam Skattebo stands out as the top points-per-dollar running back projection despite the Giants carrying just a 19.0 team total.
FanDuel
Let's take a look at the top options on FanDuel according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
Justin Fields: Fields has played two full games in 2025 and delivered 29.5 fantasy points in Week 1 against the Steelers and 27.1 on Monday night against the Dolphins. He now draws a matchup with a Cowboys defense allowing 29.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (most in the NFL). At $7,700, his dual-threat ability makes him a strong play in both cash games and tournaments.
Justin Herbert: Herbert projects well in early-week models, and his matchup with the Commanders has shootout potential. Still, there are reasons for caution. He will be without both starting offensive tackles, which caps the overall ceiling of the offense. In addition, after rushing 16 times over the first two weeks, he has only three total carries across the last two.
C.J. Stroud: Stroud and the Texans' offense finally clicked last week, as he completed 78.6% of his passes for 233 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans. He now draws an intriguing matchup against a Ravens defense that could be without more than half of its usual starters. Baltimore has already allowed 37 or more points in three of four games this season.
Running Back
Cam Skattebo: This is an interesting spot for Skattebo and the Giants, who have just a 19.0 implied total as 2.5-point underdogs against the Saints—the second-lowest on the slate (ahead of only Tennessee). Still, Skattebo is simply too cheap for his role. He played 75% of the snaps last week with 25 carries and two targets. While he didn’t post a big fantasy score, that was largely due to a tough matchup with a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The matchup is much softer this week against a Saints defense giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Skattebo has also backed up the preseason hype, earning PFF’s top grade among running backs so far this season.
Woody Marks: Marks could rival Skattebo as the best play of the week on FanDuel. No team has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than the Ravens, who have been shredded both on the ground (464 yards and five touchdowns) and through the air (201 yards and two touchdowns). Baltimore will also be without top linebacker Roquan Smith in Week 5 due to a hamstring injury. Marks’ role has grown each week, and he took a major step forward last game with 56.3% of the snaps, 17 carries, and four receptions. He turned that workload into 119 total yards and two touchdowns in a true breakout performance.
Rachaad White: Injury news in Tampa Bay will be key. Bucky Irving cracked the early Top 12 projections, but there’s a strong chance he sits out Week 5 after picking up an ankle injury against the Eagles. If Irving is ruled out, White would vault to the top of the points-per-dollar projections at just $5,200. It’s also worth noting that Sean Tucker ($4,100) flashed in a similar spot last season when injuries opened the door for more touches. In addition, keep an eye on Trey Benson’s practice participation this week—if he’s scratched for Arizona, it could open up even more value at running back.