Week 9 brings us serious injury-related running back value for the first time in nearly a month. The last slate with this much cheap running back value was Week 5, when $4,900 Rico Dowdle headlined this article. He exploded for 234 yards and a touchdown, becoming a must-play. That same week, Rachaad White was $5,200 and produced 71 yards and two scores, while minimum-priced Michael Carter ($4,000) chipped in 73 yards and a touchdown.
This week, several injury-related bargains stand out at the position:
Kyle Monangai ($5,200) is set to make his first NFL start with D'Andre Swift sidelined by a groin injury. Monangai draws a dream matchup against a struggling Bengals defense and should appear on 50–60% of GPP rosters. He is less proven than Dowdle or White were in Week 5, which makes him slightly riskier. However, I am a believer in his talent and will be looking to be at or above the field.
TreVeyon Henderson ($5,300) is also likely to get his first NFL start with Rhamondre Stevenson out. Normally, a highly touted rookie stepping into a lead role on a team with a solid 25.0-point total would be a smash spot. However, Henderson has been buried on the depth chart for much of the season and burned DFS players multiple times. He projects for roughly 20–25% rostered. I like Henderson, but don't think Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel trusts him yet, which makes him a player I want to be below the field on.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($6,000) has reclaimed the starting job in New York after Cam Skattebo's season-ending injury. While not as steeply discounted as Monangai or Henderson, he still offers value as a lead back in a potentially high-scoring matchup with the 49ers. Expect similar 20–25% roster rates. Tracy seems like a solid value, but I am not sold on his upside in tournaments. I want to be below the field here too.
Kareem Hunt ($5,900) is firmly in play with Isiah Pacheco sidelined. Hunt scored twice last week and provides strong leverage off Patrick Mahomes II and Rashee Rice, both of whom will be chalky. On most slates, he'd draw heavy ownership, but this week he should go largely overlooked due to the abundance of cheaper options. The touchdown upside is enough for me to want to be well above the field, even if the yardage upside is minimal.
Injury-driven running back value typically inflates ownership on top-tier wide receivers and elite backs. Expect Christian McCaffrey, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Patrick Mahomes II, and other high-priced stars to attract more attention than usual thanks to the extra salary flexibility.
We will start by looking at the matchups and implied team totals for each team. The rest of this article will go position by position, with recommendations split into two categories: Good Chalk and Low-Owned Players to Consider. You always want to be mindful of avoiding lineups that are too chalky, but it is especially important this week given that Monangai could end up on over half of all tournamanent rosters and some of the other top players (McCaffrey) might not be too far behind him. As you read on, think carefully about which chalk you cannot pass up, and just as importantly, how you will pivot off the chalk in certain spots to differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
With eight weeks of data now complete, we can draw firmer conclusions about which defenses are weakest or strongest against each position. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 9 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
San Francisco: The combination of the 49ers getting a massive 28% scoring boost and the Giants allowing 4.9 PPG above expectation to opposing running backs is impossible to ignore. Add in that Christian McCaffrey is $1,500 cheaper than Jonathan Taylor, and you have a recipe for McCaffrey to emerge as mega-chalk on the Week 9 slate. He projects to be the second-most popular play behind only Kyle Monangai. Because their salaries pair so cleanly, expect a flood of McCaffrey–Monangai lineups. Think carefully about whether you want to roster both together. If you do, make sure to get more creative elsewhere to differentiate from the thousands of similar builds in large-field tournaments.
Chicago: When I wrote the DFS First Look article on Wednesday morning, the Bears' team total sat at 27.5. It has since dropped by half a point, which may or may not be related to D'Andre Swift being ruled out. The Bengals have also listed star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson as doubtful. Positional defensive metrics strongly favor Monangai here, but don't be surprised if Cincinnati's defense overcommits to stopping the run and opens up opportunities through the air. Pivoting to the Bears' passing game is an intriguing and potentially sharp GPP strategy this week.
LA Rams: The Rams are heavy favorites against the Saints, which could lead to a big workload for Kyren Williams. He has just two rushing touchdowns this season after scoring 26 times over his previous 28 games, making this a prime spot for positive touchdown regression. The coaching staff has emphasized getting Blake Corum more involved, which complicates things slightly, but Williams still has one of the slate's highest ceilings if game script goes as expected.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 9 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Indianapolis: One of the toughest decisions on this slate is how much weight to give the Colts' ugly –20% scoring boost. This offense has been on fire, scoring 29 or more points in seven of eight games and averaging 36.8 over their last four. I believe the Steelers defense is a shell of its former self, but its long-standing reputation under Mike Tomlin will likely scare off most DFS players. My lean is to stay aggressively overweight on the top Colts weapons despite the negative Week 9 scoring adjustment that places them near the top of the "worst matchups" list.
New England: The overall numbers paint the Falcons defense as one of the better units in football, but they have been wildly inconsistent. That unpredictability makes the Patriots offense somewhat intriguing in tournaments, even with a –5% scoring downgrade and strong Atlanta defense-versus-position metrics. Keep a close eye on reports leading up to kickoff. If indications point to a heavy workload for TreVeyon Henderson, he's worth taking a tournament shot on. If instead we hear that Terrell Jennings will have a major role, it may be best to avoid this backfield altogether.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes II
Over his last five games, Mahomes has thrown 14 touchdown passes and added two more on the ground. The Chiefs offense has looked especially dangerous over the past two weeks with Rashee Rice back in the lineup. The Chiefs-Bills matchup carries the highest total on the main slate and has clear shootout potential, making Mahomes the most popular pay-up option at quarterback. With minimal pricing gaps between Mahomes and the lower-end starters, there's little reason to overthink the position. This is a week to pay up for a quarterback with true 30-point upside, especially given how much value exists at running back.
Josh Allen
Mahomes is $400 cheaper and projects slightly better than Allen in their head-to-head matchup between two of the league's best quarterbacks. If both were expected to be equally popular, the lean would be Mahomes. However, percent-rostered projections across the industry suggest Mahomes will be two to three times as popular, which makes Allen the stronger tournament play. In five career regular-season matchups against Kansas City, Allen has averaged 2.0 passing touchdowns, 0.6 rushing touchdowns, and just under 300 total yards of offense.
Daniel Jones
With how dominant Jonathan Taylor has been, it has gone somewhat unnoticed how well Jones has played this season. He ranks third in the NFL (among players with at least seven games) in yards per attempt at 8.49. He has completed 71.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns to just three interceptions and added four more scores on the ground. Jones faces a struggling Steelers pass defense that has allowed over 700 passing yards and six touchdowns in the past two weeks to Joe Flacco and Jordan Love.