Week 5 is the first with teams on bye, leaving us with our smallest main slate of the season so far: 10 games. When looking at implied team totals, it’s worth noting that 85% of the teams fall within a narrow range of 19.5 to 25.0 projected points. Only two teams are above 25 (Detroit and Indianapolis), and only one is below 19.5 (Tennessee). This means players from a wide range of teams are viable, and there aren’t any clear shootout spots where exposure feels mandatory. It should make for a fun and wide-open slate.
In a week without obvious game environments to target, injuries at running back will likely play an even bigger role in shaping the player pool. Here are the most impactful situations to monitor:
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Chuba Hubbard is out, which means Rico Dowdle ($4,900) should step into a workhorse role. Carolina’s backs have averaged 18.2 FanDuel points per game this season, and they face a Miami defense allowing the seventh-most points to opposing running backs.
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Bucky Irving is out, putting Rachaad White ($5,200) in line for a larger role, with Sean Tucker ($4,100) also expected to get some work.
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James Conner is out for the season, and Trey Benson recently joined him on injured reserve. Michael Carter ($4,000) is expected to start, with Emari Demercado ($5,200) remaining in the third-down role and Bam Knight ($4,000) possibly mixing in.
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Tyrone Tracy Jr. will miss his second straight game for the Giants. Cam Skattebo ($6,200) had 27 touches last week with Tracy sidelined and remains underpriced for his current role.
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Braelon Allen is out, which should lead to more playing time and goal-line opportunities for Breece Hall ($7,000), who looks underpriced given the likely increase in usage.
Some of these low-priced backs slated for increased usage will be popular, which means there will be more cap room available for elite running backs. It is less painful than normal to build a roster with the space to play expensive guys like Jonathan Taylor or Jahmyr Gibbs.
We will start by looking at the matchups and implied team totals for each team. The rest of this article will go position by position, with recommendations split into two categories: Good Chalk and Others to Consider. You always want to be mindful of avoiding lineups that are too chalky, but it is especially important this week, which is why we focused so much on the big-picture dynamics of this slate Both hand-builders and those who use optimizers are likely to generate very similar lineups around the same dozen or so obvious plays. As you read on, think carefully about which chalk you cannot pass up, and just as importantly, how you will pivot off the chalk in certain spots to differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field.
Matchups and Slate Overview
One way to spot potential value is to compare each team's implied total from oddsmakers to how many points per game they average. The tables below highlight the best matchups (teams projected to score above their 2025 season average) and the worst matchups (teams projected below it).
Last week, this article highlighted the three teams with the biggest Week 4 Boost. They were Houston (Woody Marks had 25.9 points), Atlanta (Drake London scored 24.0), and Las Vegas (Ashton Jeanty scored 35.5).
Best Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 5 expected to outperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
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While the game total in the Saints–Giants matchup is low (42.5), this is still a good spot for both offenses compared to how they’ve performed so far. New Orleans gets a 33% Week 5 boost. Spencer Rattler, Alvin Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed are flying under the radar, but each has a realistic path to a breakout game.
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We typically avoid targeting players against the Ravens defense, but the unit has been decimated by injuries and could be without more than half of its usual starters. Houston gets a 31% Week 5 boost and could get back on track after a slow start. Nico Collins is one of the top wide receiver plays on the slate, and Woody Marks continues to see his backfield role grow each week.
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There may still be uncertainty around how backfield opportunities will be split in Arizona, but the matchup is undeniably strong. The Cardinals are solid favorites and carry a 20% Week 5 boost. If Michael Carter handles more than half of the snaps and most of the carries, he looks like an outstanding value play.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams in Week 5 expected to underperform versus their 2025 scoring average.
- While the team totals for the Lions and Colts jump off the page, it’s important to remember that both are actually projected for negative Week 5 boosts after their hot starts to the season. You should still mix in players from these games, but they aren’t necessarily the smash spots where the top options are must plays.
Quarterback
Let’s zoom out a bit before analyzing specific players. The first question I like to ask each week is which quarterback on the slate has the best chance to score 30 points. Sometimes you can easily narrow it down to a few players with a realistic path to a huge fantasy game. I could be wrong, but I’m not seeing that on this slate.
Josh Allen isn’t on the main slate. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are injured. Jayden Daniels is back but has a tough matchup, and it’s hard to expect big rushing numbers in his first game after missing time with a knee injury. Jalen Hurts faces a strong Denver defense that has given up only three total touchdowns (two passing and one rushing) to opposing quarterbacks through four games. Justin Herbert draws a solid matchup, but the offensive line injuries could limit his ceiling, and he hasn’t been running much lately.
In short, there’s a good chance we won’t need a massive fantasy performance from our quarterback this week. That shifts the focus to value. I’m approaching the position with the goal of finding a reasonably priced passer (under $8K) who has a clear path to 25 points. There are three priced at $7,800 or below who stand out from the pack.
Dak Prescott
The Jets–Cowboys game should be one of the most popular on the slate after last week’s 40-40 shootout between Dallas and Green Bay. I’m a little skeptical of Justin Fields in this spot given his projected popularity. He would likely need big rushing numbers to help you win a GPP, and the Cowboys’ extremely zone-heavy defensive approach naturally limits scrambling opportunities for quarterbacks.
The matchup against the Jets isn’t especially favorable for Prescott either. No quarterback has thrown for more than 250 yards against this defense through four weeks. Still, I’m willing to take a shot on him at a reasonable price simply because of how well he’s playing. The Packers’ defense is elite, and Prescott just shredded them for 319 yards and four total touchdowns.
Jared Goff
One of the peculiarities of this slate is that, despite the Lions being projected for the highest total, Goff isn’t expected to be popular. On one hand, that makes sense. The Detroit running backs, especially Jahmyr Gibbs, will draw most of the attention, and the Lions do score a high percentage of their touchdowns on the ground. Goff’s lack of rushing upside also tends to keep his GPP ownership low.
However, it’s important to remember how often Goff posts big fantasy games. In Week 2, he threw for 334 yards and five touchdowns against the Bears, marking his sixth 300-plus yard, three-plus touchdown outing in his last 17 games. Put another way, he’s delivered that kind of ceiling performance about 35% of the time over the last calendar year. This week, he faces a struggling Bengals defense that has been shaky in all phases.
Another advantage with Goff is that he doesn’t need a shootout game environment to produce. He threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns last season against Dallas, a game in which the Cowboys scored just nine points. He also had 412 yards and four touchdowns in Week 11 last season when Jacksonville managed only six points. He’s lit up Chicago twice in his last eight games, and both times the Bears’ offense did little to push the pace. Dan Campbell will run up the score, so do not feel like you have to game stack here with Cincinnati bringbacks.
Jaxson Dart
While he didn’t do much as a passer in his NFL debut (111 yards and a touchdown on 20 attempts), Dart’s rushing usage was very encouraging. He was the team’s go-to option in short yardage and had three carries inside the red zone, finishing with 50 rushing yards and a touchdown. That dual-threat ability at a sub-$7K price tag stands out on a slate that lacks clear quarterback options. Dart can be played unstacked, with the hope that he finds the end zone on the ground in a favorable matchup against the Saints.
Running Back
The salary structure on this slate will naturally boost the popularity of the top running backs. Injuries have created enough value to make it easy to fit in players like Jonathan Taylor ($9,500), Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,000), and De'Von Achane ($8,100). We project Taylor and Achane to appear on more than 30% of tournament rosters, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Gibbs ends up close to that range as people get more comfortable jamming in the cheaper injury replacements (especially Rico Dowdle, Michael Carter, and Rachaad White).
If you’re playing tournaments, you’ll want some exposure to these elite backs. They’re dangerous to fade completely and remain strong plays overall, but it’s hard to call any of them “good chalk” at those projected ownership levels. I plan to be slightly underweight on each and focus more on mid-tier options who could go overlooked.
Breece Hall
Hall has played just 59.7% of the snaps this season and has only three carries inside the red zone. That should change following the injury to top backup Braelon Allen. While we shouldn’t expect true workhorse usage similar to Omarion Hampton after the Najee Harris injury, it’s reasonable to project Hall for 70% or more of the snaps along with the majority of red zone opportunities.
When you combine that with his passing-game involvement—six targets in each of the past two weeks—it’s easy to get excited about his upside. The matchup also works in his favor against a Dallas defense that has allowed 108 points over the last three weeks to a trio of middling offenses (Giants, Bears, and Packers). Josh Jacobs just torched them for 157 total yards and two touchdowns, setting the stage for Hall to deliver a ceiling game.
Cam Skattebo
The Giants team total has risen two full points over the last few days, which eases some early concerns about the game environment. Skattebo is simply too cheap for his role. He played 75% of the snaps last week, handling 25 carries and two targets. While he didn’t post a big fantasy score, that was mostly due to a tough matchup with a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
This week’s matchup is much softer against a Saints defense giving up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Skattebo has also backed up the preseason hype, earning PFF’s top grade among running backs so far this season. This is a good spot to play one of the best values on the slate while still gaining leverage, as many will gravitate toward the cheaper backups. If players like Michael Carter, Rico Dowdle, and Rachaad White draw heavy ownership and none of them posts a big game, Skattebo could be a difference-maker.
David Montgomery
Montgomery should fly under the radar this week at his current salary range. DFS players tend to focus on situations where something has changed, and nothing has changed in Detroit. That is not a bad thing for Montgomery, who has scored at least one touchdown in 16 of his last 22 games.
Detroit is a sizable favorite against a Bengals defense that has already given up six touchdowns to opposing running backs. There is also a nice narrative angle here. Montgomery is from Cincinnati, and this will be his first game played in his hometown since high school. If the Lions control the game as expected, they could easily call plays late that reward one of their top leaders in his return home.
Woody Marks
Marks’ role has grown each week, and he took a major step forward last game with 56.3% of the snaps, 17 carries, and four receptions. He turned that workload into 119 total yards and two touchdowns in a true breakout performance. We could see him play 60% or more of the snaps with Nick Chubb’s role continuing to shrink.
No team has allowed more fantasy points to running backs than the Ravens, who have been shredded both on the ground (464 yards and five touchdowns) and through the air (201 yards and two touchdowns). Baltimore will also be without top linebacker Roquan Smith in Week 5 because of a hamstring injury, and safety Kyle Hamilton is questionable after missing consecutive practices with a groin injury.
Rico Dowdle
I expect Dowdle’s projected roster percentage to rise between now and kickoff, so he may not be as under the radar by Sunday. Even so, he is my favorite of the injury replacement running backs. The other situations are much murkier in terms of whether one player will dominate the touches. In this case, Dowdle should be the clear go-to option ahead of Trevor Etienne and DeeJay Dallas.
Dowdle has already been playing roughly one-third of the snaps behind Chuba Hubbard, and we know he can handle a heavy workload after posting 1,079 rushing yards and 249 receiving yards for the Cowboys last season. Carolina is a run-heavy offense and has a favorable matchup against a Miami defense that has allowed 440 rushing yards (sixth most) and 212 receiving yards (fourth most) to opposing backs.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown
There was a school of thought that St. Brown might be due for touchdown regression after averaging 11.0 touchdowns per season in 2023 and 2024. Instead, his touchdown rate has actually increased in 2025, and he currently leads the league with six receiving touchdowns. He should stay hot against a struggling Cincinnati defense. The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and that number undersells how bad they have been. In the first two weeks, wide-open Cleveland and Jacksonville receivers dropped multiple easy passes. In the last two weeks, Minnesota and Denver took their foot off the gas early as both games were essentially over by halftime. Detroit is not going to let up, and St. Brown is not going to have the kinds of drops that plagued Brian Thomas Jr. and Jerry Jeudy.
Nico Collins
Collins has started to heat up after a slow start. Over the past two weeks, he has eight catches for 183 yards and a touchdown. He might have had a bigger Week 4 if the defense hadn’t completely shut down the Titans in an easy 26-0 win. Houston is only a small home favorite against the Ravens and should have to be more aggressive than they were last week. The Ravens have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and are dealing with a long list of injuries. They could be without as many as six regular starters, including cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who is out, and safety Kyle Hamilton, who remains highly questionable.
Emeka Egbuka
Egbuka’s targets have risen each week, culminating in a career-high 10 last week against the Eagles despite shadow coverage from top cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. With Mike Evans and Bucky Irving both out and Chris Godwin still working his way back to full strength, Egbuka has emerged as the go-to option in this resilient Buccaneers offense. Despite a string of injuries, Tampa Bay has scored at least 20 points in 19 straight games. No other offense in the league has been that consistently productive.
Michael Pittman Jr
We are getting the clear-cut WR1 on an offense with a 27.25-point team total at a sub-$6K price and projected roster percentage below 10%. What’s not to love? On top of that, the Colts will be without their second-most productive wide receiver, Alec Pierce, who is out with a concussion, and Adonai Mitchell is in the doghouse after a mistake last week that may have cost Indianapolis the game. The matchup is also elite. The Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season (695 yards and five touchdowns).
Ja'Marr Chase
As noted above, you can stack the Detroit game without a Cincinnati bring-back since Goff has posted big passing numbers even when opposing offenses have struggled. Still, this matchup makes sense for a full game stack if you’re inclined to build that way, and Chase stands out as the clear player to target.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease. With Joe Burrow out, Chase is the face of the franchise and has been front and center with the media after back-to-back blowout losses. He was visibly frustrated with the play calling last week as the Bengals repeatedly ran Chase Brown into stacked boxes on early downs, even confronting Zac Taylor on the sideline. Taylor is coaching for his job and knows he needs to get his best player involved early and often to restore confidence in the offense. This matchup sets up well for that approach. Detroit will be without top cornerback D.J. Reed, and Terrion Arnold has been picked on in coverage, allowing 255 yards this season despite missing time with an injury. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranks 101st out of 108 qualified cornerbacks.
Courtland Sutton
There’s good reason to fade Sutton this week. Denver faces an elite Philadelphia defense, and Sutton has a tough individual matchup with Quinyon Mitchell potentially shadowing him. Those factors will keep his roster percentage extremely low. Still, it has often been profitable to play elite receivers in bad matchups when everyone else is avoiding them. Sutton deserves to be viewed in that tier. Over his last two games, he has averaged 5.5 catches for 99.5 yards and a touchdown. He has scored in eight of his last nine games and has either a touchdown, 100 receiving yards, or both in 11 of his last 14.
Jameson Williams
It feels like Williams is due. He’s playing nearly every snap (85% or more in every game) and has run a route on 92% of Goff’s dropbacks. He saw a season-high eight targets last week, but inefficiency and two drops against a tough Browns defense kept him in check. This sets up as a strong get-right spot. Cincinnati’s cornerback play has been a major issue, with Cam Taylor-Britt getting benched after five awful snaps last week. The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers (659), and that number could easily be worse. In the first two weeks, wide-open Cleveland and Jacksonville receivers dropped several easy passes, and in the last two, Minnesota and Denver coasted through second halves with big leads.
Tight End
Tyler Warren
It’s rare to find a tight end who ranks among his team’s leaders in both targets and rushing touchdowns, but that’s the case with Warren. The talented rookie received two goal-line carries last week and converted one for a score. He has topped 70 receiving yards in three of his four career games, with the lone exception coming in a Week 3 blowout win over Tennessee. He now faces a Raiders defense that has held up reasonably well against tight ends but has still allowed the tenth-most passing yards overall.
Jake Ferguson
Ferguson has been a volume machine over the past three weeks, averaging 9.7 receptions for 66.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns on 11.0 targets per game. With CeeDee Lamb sidelined and George Pickens facing a tough matchup against Sauce Gardner, Ferguson should once again be heavily involved. The matchup is also favorable, as the Jets just allowed two touchdowns to Darren Waller.
Sam LaPorta
As noted above, Goff is one of the best quarterback plays on the slate. He has thrown for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns six times in his last 17 games. If he delivers another strong performance, LaPorta is a good bet to post a big game of his own and find the end zone. The Bengals have allowed an average of 10.0 targets per game to tight ends, tied for the most in the NFL, and have long struggled to defend the position. LaPorta projects similarly to Tyler Warren but could come in at a fraction of the ownership, making him an appealing GPP pivot.
Mason Taylor
The Jets have steadily increased Taylor’s involvement, with his targets rising each week. Over the last two games, he has averaged 6.5 targets and had a breakout performance last week with five catches for 65 yards. Early in his rookie season, Taylor has emerged as the preferred target when opponents play zone coverage, while Garrett Wilson dominates against man. The Cowboys play zone on nearly every snap (93%), creating a matchup that should work in Taylor’s favor.