Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season.
Happy Thanksgiving!
I have a lot to be thankful for, including this platform and your attention. Both of those things motivate and inspire me to share the insights that come with over 30 years of experience, but to do it with the humility necessary when predicting volatile future outcomes . . .
About Those Outcomes
Does every week have to be off the hook? Sure, there are players we can reasonably expect to hit the higher end of their range of possible outcomes. But nothing is guaranteed in the NFL except the unexpected.
Week 12 delivered more than its fair share of shocking results -- not all of them, but certainly enough to shake things up.
Let's sift through the aftermath of some surprising performances and figure out what they mean for our fantasy teams in Week 13 and beyond . . .
Shocking Or Not: Running Backs
Running back might be the position we most expect surprising outcomes. Week 12 delivered, with . . .
Shocking: The Insurance Policy Pays Off
As The Athletic's Matt Schneidman reported, the Packers had a tough decision to make last Sunday morning in Minnesota. Would they roll out a less-than-full-speed Josh Jacobs, one of the NFL's best running backs, or Emanuel Wilson, a 2023 undrafted running back out of Division II Fort Valley State with zero career starts?
Jacobs suffered a knee contusion four days prior against the Giants, and with a Thanksgiving afternoon visit to Detroit looming on a short week, Wilson got the nod.
All the third-year running back did was become the team's first 100-yard rusher this season, carrying 28 times for 107 yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay's 23-6 win. In fact, Wilson registered the first 100-yard rushing game by a Packer since Jacobs in Week 12 of the 2024 season.
Even more impressive, of Wilson's 107 yards, 100 came after contact.
Wilson also caught two passes for 18 yards en route to an RB3 finish with a career-best 26.5 fantasy points.
Why Were We So Surprised?
My Footballguys colleague Alfredo Brown wasn't wrong about any of this:
Call me crazy, but Emanuel Wilson feels like a trap this week.
— Alfredo Brown (@AlfredoABrown) November 19, 2025
The Packers have been the 2nd-worst scoring offense in the NFL over the last 3 weeks with Josh Jacobs.
Now they play the Vikings, who have kept starting RBs under 12 ppr points in each of their last three games. pic.twitter.com/dZhnaXfvWW
The range of possible outcomes is always wide, but expecting the highest-possible end of the range for Wilson wasn't on most Week 12 bingo cards, including mine . . .
What Are We Doing With It?
The Packers don't quite have a running back controversy, but Sunday proved they might at least have one of the league's best backfield insurance policies.
Wilson was exceptional, totaling 30 more rushing yards than expected with four explosive runs, per Next Gen Stats. He punched in a pair of goal-line carries for touchdowns. As ESPN's Dan Graziano wrote, "If Jacobs is on your team, Wilson needs to be on there, too."
And even if you don't have Jacobs, it's worth having Wilson as a stretch-run lottery ticket . . .
Not Shocking: Gibbs Explodes
As NFL.com's Kevin Patra noted, the Lions haven't looked quite right the past few weeks, seemingly just a tick off behind a struggling interior offensive line.
But on a Sunday, when Jared Goff was sacked three times by the Giants, and several dropped passes nearly doomed Detroit, Jahmyr Gibbs took over, almost single-handedly carrying his team to a 34-27 overtime win.
The third-year running back was the best player on the field.
Gibbs gashed the Giants for 219 rushing yards with two long touchdowns, including a 69-yarder on the first play of overtime. He added another 45 yards and a score on 11 catches.
In all, the former first-round pick accounted for 264 of the Lions' 494 yards and three of their four TDs . . .
Volume Was the Key
Footballguy Colton Dodgson, in his Week 12 Fantasy Dreams and Nightmares, wrote: "The ability to push for the top overall player in fantasy is part of Gibbs' profile. Efficiency and volume lead to elite outcomes. Gibbs was the face of elite efficiency with passable volume over the last two years."
This week, the volume was more than passable.
Gibbs played a season-high 73.9 percent of the team's offensive snaps. According to Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke, his previous season high was 72.9 percent, which occurred last week.
This Isn't New
Gibbs has always been a prolific touchdown scorer.
Gibbs scored his 44th career touchdown Sunday, surpassing Hall of Famer Jim Brown (42), Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith (43), and pulling even with Hall of Famer Randy Moss (44), tying him for the second-most touchdowns of any player before their 24th birthday. He trails only Barry Sanders (47).
And big fantasy totals often follow big touchdown totals.
This year alone, Gibbs has nine games with more than 15 fantasy points; he has four games over 20 points; he has three games with more than 30 points (all of them in his last five games) . . .
But This Performance Was Special
Gibbs' 55.4 fantasy point performance was the season's best single-game score output this year. According to ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft, it's tied for the 12th-best performance by a running back in NFL history and tied for 22nd among players at any position.
What Are We Doing With It?
Gibbs is a championship-caliber player for fantasy managers heading into their playoffs, and it's good to see him performing at this high a level considering his remaining schedule is considered below average.
The Lions have six remaining games against the Packers, Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Vikings, and Bears . . .
Also Surprising, But Not Really
For the second time in his past three games, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was held beneath 10 fantasy points, scoring only 8.6 despite his game against the Kansas City Chiefs going into overtime.
He finished the week as RB28, in a tough matchup against Kansas City's top-eight run defense. Taylor was stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage on 5 of 16 carries, and only once did he break off a run greater than 8 yards.
As Cockroft suggested, it's a concern, considering Taylor and the Colts were fresh off the bye, as well as the fact that they face a similarly challenging matchup in Week 13 in the Houston Texans . . .
Shocking Or Not: Wide Receivers
Nothing should surprise us at this position, not after Tre Tucker's 40.9-point Week 3 outing. But every week brings us new marvels, like . . .
Shocking: Robinson Exceeds Expectations
Giants wideout Wan'Dale Robinson set career highs in receptions and receiving yards, finishing with nine catches on 14 targets for 156 yards and a touchdown in a 34-27 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 12.
As Pro Football Focus noted, the Giants have tried to use several wide receivers this season since Malik Nabers' injury. Robinson has been the clear top receiver since the injury, and he had the best game of his career on Sunday. He topped 100 yards in the first quarter alone. Robinson became the first Giants player since Hakeem Nicks in 2011 to accomplish that feat.
This was his second 100-yard game of the season, and the former second-round pick now has 794 receiving yards on the year in what has become a breakout campaign for the wideout after three straight disappointing seasons to begin his NFL career.
Of course, Robinson had a 28.2-point, WR5 performance in Week 2 this year. A then-healthy Malik Nabers was WR2 that week with 37.7 points, with then-starter Russell Wilson throwing for 450 yards and three touchdowns against a defenseless Dallas defense.
Robinson was WR19 overall over the first three games, with Wilson starting and Nabers working opposite him. He was WR18 from Weeks 4 through 10 with Jaxson Dart at quarterback and Nabers sidelined by a season-ending knee injury.
The Surprising Part
In two games with Jameis Winston? Robinson has been WR5, including last week's WR2 finish.
He scored a career-best 30.6 fantasy points.
What Are We Doing With It?
Robinson is a must-start fantasy wideout the rest of the season. Whether it's been with Dart, Wilson, or Winston, the slot man has delivered.
Meanwhile, as ESPN's Dan Graziano noted, the Giants play wild games and could be in a lot of come-from-behind situations the rest of the way. Robinson should continue to produce -- especially once Dart is back . . .
Not Shocking: JSN Doing What He Does
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to prove he's playing at the highest level of any wide receiver in the game. In Week 12, the third-year pro gave the Titans fits on every level.
Smith-Njigba splashed plays of 63 and 56 yards and netted his second-career two-touchdown outing. The NFL's leader in yards receiving, he finished with eight catches for a season-high 167 yards.
Of Sam Darnold's 244 yards passing, JSN's 167 left all the other receiving assets with a combined 77 yards.
He set Seattle's single-season receiving yards mark with 1,313 yards, topping DK Metcalf's 1,303 yards in 2020.
Of course, Metcalf set that record over 16 games in 2020. It only took Smith-Njigba 11 games to pass his former teammate, and the wideout said after the game that he credits Darnold and other teammates with putting him in position to succeed.
He's also on pace to shatter his own club record of 100 catches, which he shares with Tyler Lockett, and those 1,313 yards mean he now has the fifth-most receiving yards in the first 11 games of a season in the Super Bowl era, passing Julio Jones . . .
Normalizing Greatness
While nothing Smith-Njigba is doing here should shock us at this point, we need to acknowledge his consistency is remarkable.
On Sunday, he became the third player in NFL history with 75-plus receiving yards in at least 11 consecutive games within a season -- joining Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison Sr. (14, 2002) and current teammate Cooper Kupp (13, 2021).
Will Smith-Njigba break the NFL's single-season receiving record?
Former Lion Calvin Johnson owns the mark with 1,964 yards in 2012. Smith-Njigba is on pace to average 119.3 yards per game, which would break Johnson's (set in 16 games). His level of consistency to this point in the season -- Smith-Njigba hasn't finished a game with less than 79 yards -- makes it look like he can make a real run at that milestone . . .
What Are We Doing With It?
Smith-Njigba's 37.1 fantasy points on Sunday make him WR1 for the week.
Also not surprising. The Seattle wideout has now posted seven straight games of 20 or more points. Expect more of the same against the Vikings in Week 13 -- and after the team's Week 14 bye . . .
Not Quite Shocking, But Noteworthy
Eagles wideout A.J. Brown caught eight of 10 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown in Philly's loss to the Cowboys.
Brown had five catches for 67 yards in the first quarter, including a 16-yard touchdown for the first points, but didn't have another grab until the fourth quarter.
Still, his WR5 finish is satisfying for fantasy investors, who have hung with Brown even as he put up WR36 numbers over the first 11 weeks.
The Eagles play the Bears on Friday in what should provide further opportunity for fantasy success . . .