Top 5 Passing Matchups
Seattle at Arizona
Sam Darnold's Seattle debut was mediocre, but he's bounced back well, hitting 71% of his throws for 513 yards and 4 touchdowns over the last two weeks. He hasn't looked quite as smooth as he did in Minnesota, but when the Seahawks control the pass rush, he's accurate and polished enough to move the ball consistently. His top two weapons are Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, both sure-handed and precise in their routes. There's no true home run threat on the DK Metcalf level, but Smith-Njigba has quickly become the go-to downfield option, winning like Amon-Ra St. Brown with timing and toughness rather than pure athleticism. Kupp remains capable of producing, though at age 32, he looks more matchup-driven. He was erased twice in negative game scripts, but when targeted heavily, as against Pittsburgh (7 for 90), he showed he can still impact the game. Against an undermanned Arizona secondary, this presents another strong opportunity for Seattle's passing game.
The Cardinals' defense has struggled badly to open 2025. They've been fortunate to face Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, and Mac Jones, yet the latter two still combined for 612 yards and 4 touchdowns. Top cornerback Garrett Williams is on injured reserve, and former starter Sean Murphy-Bunting won't play at all this season. That's left second-round rookie Willie Johnson and Max Melton exposed, with both dealing with injuries and overmatched in coverage. Melton and Denzel Burke were beaten repeatedly last week by Ricky Pearsall, and the week before by Tetairoa McMillan, each clearing 100 yards with relative ease. The safeties, Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson, are better known for their box work and tackling than deep coverage, leaving this defense vulnerable over the top. With their top cover men out, Arizona has resorted to prevent-style schemes that give up steady chunks of yardage. That's a dangerous recipe against Smith-Njigba, one of the NFL's most polished route-runners, and Kupp, who thrives on exploiting soft zones. If Darnold has time to operate, Seattle's precision passing game should find consistent holes across all levels.
Green Bay at Dallas
The Packers' Week 3 stumble wasn't overly concerning when put in context. Jordan Love and his depleted receiver group pushed Cleveland late but couldn't find the big play to swing it. The Browns' defense looks like a juggernaut, and Love was pressured from start to finish. With Jayden Reed and Christian Watson both sidelined, his options were thin, but there were bright spots. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks continue to carve out steady roles as reliable route-runners who can beat soft zone coverage. Rookie Matthew Golden led the team with 52 yards and is trending upward. Tight end Tucker Kraft is also establishing himself as a versatile player, whether in the red zone and in the open field. With a date against Dallas, there's room for optimism; the Cowboys have been unable to generate consistent pressure or cover effectively, which should give Love's secondary options room to create.
Dallas' defensive collapse has been one of the biggest surprises of 2025. Expectations were modest with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence gone, but three weeks in, this looks like the league's worst pass unit. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles barely had to throw, but still completed 19 of 23 attempts in Week 1. Since then, Russell Wilson (450 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Caleb Williams (298 and 4) have shredded this group. The Cowboys' rushers are moving the pocket but not finishing plays, recording just four sacks. The coverage is in even worse shape. DaRon Bland has missed two games with a foot injury, Kaiir Elam has been exposed regularly, and Trevon Diggs looks far removed from his 2023 peak. On the back end, safeties Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker are overmatched when drawn into coverage. Last week, Williams repeatedly manipulated Dallas' linebackers and safeties with play action to open seams downfield. Even with Reed and Watson sidelined, Green Bay has the personnel to exploit those holes. Golden is emerging, Doubs is steady, and Kraft can work mismatches underneath. Love doesn't need perfect protection to test a unit this shaky, and this looks like one of his better matchups of the young season.
Las Vegas vs Chicago
The Raiders may already be questioning their investment in Geno Smith. He looked sharp in Week 1 against a weak New England secondary, but over the last two weeks, he's produced just 6.5 yards per attempt with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Some blame falls squarely on Smith, who continues to mix pinpoint deep throws with inexplicable misses. His aggressiveness is up, as his average depth of target is higher than ever, but his offensive line does him few favors. Ranked 31st in pass-blocking by Footballguys' Matt Bitonti, this unit has made life difficult for him. Still, there are positives. Smith is in an aggressive scheme, and his top weapons are seeing heavy volume. Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers are locked into 8–12 targets apiece, while Bowers in particular looks close to a breakout. He was deployed across the field last week and nearly scored twice. Tre Tucker erupted in the fourth quarter with 8 catches for 145 yards and 3 touchdowns, highlighting the upside in this downfield approach.
Chicago's defense has cratered since the fourth quarter of Week 1. Not to discount their Week 3 win, but it's fair to wonder how that game would have unfolded with CeeDee Lamb in uniform. Even without him, Dak Prescott piled up completions, and George Pickens posted strong numbers during Dallas' comeback. The week before, Detroit lit them up with multiple receivers topping 100 yards. This unit sorely misses top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who was one of the few dependable boundary defenders in 2024. His replacement, Tyrique Stevenson, has been a liability, while depth corners Nahshon Wright and Nick McCloud are replacement-level players now pressed into full-time duty. On the back end, Kevin Byard III and Jaquan Brisker have been shaky in coverage, leaving holes throughout the secondary. Against a Raiders offense that wants to attack vertically, this matchup is concerning. Even if Smith remains inconsistent, the volume and aggressiveness suggest plenty of opportunities for Bowers, Meyers, and Tucker to exploit mismatches.