Top 5 Passing Matchups
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Just a month ago, Joe Flacco and his new Bengals cast shredded this Steelers defense for 342 yards and three touchdowns. This week, it's hard to project anything but more of the same. Sure, Ja'Marr Chase may not draw another 23 targets, but the spirit should remain intact. The Steelers continue to flail badly against good air attacks; Flacco was far from the first to exploit the thin Pittsburgh secondary. And the Bengals know their only hope for relevance is to throw the ball early, throw it often, and throw it a little in the post-game shower, just to be on the safe side. Flacco has thrown 45, 47, 34, and 47 times as a Bengal, and just about any game script will have him dropping back plenty again this week. The Steelers badly lack the coverage horses to slow Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who have combined for 195 yards per game with Flacco (and who posted 257 in this matchup a month ago). Flacco allows the team to use them vertically and on tough sideline throws, an element missing during the disastrous Jake Browning Era.
Gone are the days where the Steelers have a defense that is truly feared. This group has been victimized by the pass for most of the season, with the better quarterbacks teeing off for huge stat lines. They've allowed 4 of their last six opponents to throw for 340 yards or more; the other two were dates with Dillon Gabriel and the Browns, and last week's lopsided loss to Justin Herbert and the Chargers. When game flow allows, virtually anyone and everyone can compile numbers in this matchup. The pass rush remains strong, although less disruptive, as T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward begin to slow down. But the secondary looks like one of the league's weakest – and thinnest. Joey Porter Jr. continues to disappoint as a top cornerback: not bad enough to condemn, but far from a shutdown presence. The team lost Darius Slay to a concussion last week, which may actually be an addition by subtraction, as Slay has struggled mightily in year thirteen. They lean hard on 31-year-old Jalen Ramsey, who's moved into a slot/safety role, to make plays against the pass. But Ramsey is only one man, and he's miscast as a linchpin at this point. The team has whiffed badly on personnel for years and now has something of a talent vacuum on the back end. From snap to snap, there's no real plan in place to contain Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, who combined to post 22 catches, 257 yards, and two touchdowns when they squared off a month ago.
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Aaron Rodgers has kept the Steelers generally afloat, though he's yet to truly impress, and he comes fresh off an especially poor Week 10 showing. That said, he'll now get a solid breather against a Bengals defense incapable of slowing anyone. When these teams met a month ago, Rodgers posted 249 yards and four touchdowns, his best line as a Steeler. At this stage, Rogers is firing the ball as quickly as possible, which makes it easier to slip quick throws under and between the Bengals' soft cover zones. He faced no resistance in the first matchup and routinely found pass-catchers between deep defenders. Steelers tight ends combined for 11 catches, 141 yards, and all 4 of Rodgers' touchdowns that night, a common theme against the safety-needy Bengals. The tight ends and DK Metcalf project well this week in what could end up being another shootout
You can typically count on a Bengals game being one of the highest scoring games each week. They don't run the ball or protect leads well, which hurts indirectly, but they also trot out one of the worst defensive units in all of football. Opposing passers are averaging 7.6 yards per throw (29th) and 268 per game (also 29th), and no one is allowing a higher touchdown rate. Simply put, almost all the team's defensive talent has been gutted over the past half-decade, and it will take some time to rebuild it. (It'll have to be done cheaply, of course, as ownership prefers.) Right now, Dax Hill and Cam Taylor-Britt are among the most inviting cornerbacks in the league. D.J. Turner shows promise, but he has almost no support behind him. The overall system doesn't help, as it holds the secondary 15 yards off the ball and relies on soft zones underneath. Most defenses like that are easy to exploit, especially those lacking in coverage talent. Tight ends, however, might present the biggest problem. They've been gashed by Sam LaPorta (5 catches, 92 yards, one touchdown), Colston Loveland (6 for 118 and 1), and even Pat Freiermuth (5 for 111 and 2), whom they'll see this weekend. The images of the latter two bursting to the end zone through a secondary of arm tackles sum up this matchup beautifully.
LA Chargers at Jacksonville
Justin Herbert and the Chargers continue to produce in the face of adversity. Herbert is down his left tackle, his right tackle, and a smattering of replacements along the line, not to mention his dynamic rookie runner. And yet, he keeps rising to the occasion. Dating back to Week 6, Herbert leads the league in raw yardage, and he's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game but one. This is a sharp, diverse attack that can be produced in a variety of game scripts. Ladd McConkey has re-emerged as Herbert's top target over that span, drawing 26% of the targets and averaging 84 yards, with three touchdowns. But he's not the only playmaker on board. Quentin Johnston has been quiet of late, but he keeps drawing heavy usage, and he's a weekly deep-ball threat. That's especially true against a shaky Jacksonville secondary that lacks speed. Tight end Oronde Gadsden II, who looks fine after a quad bruise from Week 10, has posted 68, 164, 77, and 68 yards over his last four full games.
The Jaguars continue to struggle to field even a mediocre secondary. They've added little talent over the years, and earlier this year, they dealt away cornerback Tyson Campbell, replacing him with Greg Newsome II, which has been a net downgrade to Jacksonville. Now, they're left to play mix-and-match with mostly replacement-level talents, and it shows. Over the past three weeks, in particular, they've looked incapable of keeping a game under control. First, Matthew Stafford threw five touchdowns in a far-too-easy win. Then, Geno Smith (284 yards, 4 touchdowns) and Davis Mills (292 and 2) posted big stat lines in back-and-forth affairs. That says nothing of what Sam Darnold (295 and 2), Patrick Mahomes II (318 and 1), and Brock Purdy (309 and 2) did just before that run. Until real shutdown talent is added (and kept), this should remain a reliable blow-up spot for fantasy matchups. Greg Newsome II, who came over in exchange for Campbell, and Montarric Brown have been targeted early and often. Nico Collins spent much of Week 10beating both to the ball on quick downfield throws; he totaled 15 for 240 and 1 touchdown in their two meetings. But Collins is far from the only opponent that's scorched this unit. The Chargers boast playmakers on all levels of the field, and it's hard to find the reinforcements here to slow them.
Miami vs Washington