The Targets Report: Week 14

I continue to be fascinated by the idea that this is the best time of the year to grab values. Managers are looking for a shake-up or a last push on a title run. Clear intentions create motivation for deals. Too often, opinions are set in early while flips in production over the second half are ignored. Take Dallas Goedert and Dalton Schultz. Roughly the same age, Goedert lept well ahead of Schultz. But Schultz has been the steadier producer. They are ranked back-to-back in Week 14 consensus ranks. Schultz has been a TE1 for nearly nine weeks. Goedert has been outside of the Top 20 since Week 7. Check out this week's Monday NFL Roundup for more on this concept. 

There is plenty to talk about with all 32 teams in action in Week 13 and four teams with Week 14 byes.

The Target Report

I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share

• Pickens entered Week 13 with a two-game streak of 9+ receptions, 140+ yards, and 1+ touchdowns. Pickens joins Terrell Owens, Michael Irvin, and Lamb as the only players in Cowboys history with 1,100 yards through the first 12 games of a season. Lamb posted his best game of the season. He is WR11 in PPG since returning from injury in Week 7, while Pickens is WR7 over the same stretch. Ferguson had a close miss on a touchdown that was overturned after the initial ruling. He has five receptions in three of his last four games, though his production is clearly capped with the top two receivers healthy. Dallas will need to lean on the pass game against a Detroit defense that has shut down the run. 

• Who is leading the NFL in receptions? It's Trey McBride with 88, followed by Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua at 86. But your brain just said, "Wait, is Robinson leading the NFL in receptions?" With 73, he is tied with Chris Olave and Pickens for seventh. He placed 13th in 2024 with 93 and ranks WR12 on the season with a career high 828 yards. His 73 catches are the eighth most by a Giant in the first 13 games of a season. Johnson is a fantasy TE1 on the season, ranking as TE11. Since Jaxson Dart took over at quarterback in Week 4, he is the fantasy TE5. Just 24 years old, he is TE15 on Keeptradecut.com's Dynasty ranking list. His 42 receptions are the 28th most by a Giants tight end. His five touchdowns are tied for the 13th most by a tight end in team history. Aaron Thomas and Joe Walton had nine touchdown seasons in the 1960s, while Mark Bavaro had eight in 1987. The Giants are on bye in Week 14. 

• Mitchell posted the first 100-yard receiving day by a Jets player in 2025. The team had eight of those games in 2024. He is one of the hottest names in fantasy football after delivering a boom game in Week 13, though it is worth noting that Metchie is WR17 over the last three weeks while Mitchell is WR23. Both can be contributors down the stretch as the Jets play out the string, especially if Tyrod Taylor holds the quarterback job compared to Justin Fields' limitations. Taylor's 39 receptions tie Chris Herndon for the third most by a rookie Jets tight end. Dustin Keller had the most, with 48. His 318 receiving yards are the sixth most by a Jets rookie tight end, Pete Lammons holds the top mark at 565. The Jets play a Dolphins defense that ranks in the five worst in pass defense EPA.

• This is Brown's Gladiator "Are you not entertained?!" moment. Everything is cratering in Philadelphia, but he is WR1 on the week and WR1 overall during the last two weeks. You get the sense that Brown broke the offense with his frustrations and is now sitting in the wreckage, saying, "It is not my fault, I am producing." Goedert started the season red hot, ranking at TE5 through the first eight weeks. Since Week 7, he is TE22, with fewer points than Colby Parkinson and Tucker Kraft, who only played in three of those seven weeks. The Eagles face a Chargers defense that ranks eighth in pass defense EPA. 

• Apparently, it was Consolidated Target Week in the NFC East. McLaurin posted his best week of the season by far, playing for the first time since Week 8. Ertz moved past Shannon Sharpe for fifth on the tight end career reception list at 824. Tony Gonzalez (1,325), Jason Witten (1,228), Travis Kelce (1,063), and Antonio Gates (955) are the players ahead of him. He passed Tyreek Hill and Steve Largent, along with Gates, moving into 37th on the career list. Ertz had his first ten-reception game since Week 12 of 2019. It was his 12th career 10-reception game, moving him into a tie with Travis Kelce for the second most by a tight end. Gonzalez had 15 in his career. Week 9 of 2019 was the last time he hit 100 yards. Treylon Burks is a feel-good story. He scored his second career touchdown, securing a highlight reel one-handed catch. More importantly, he played the second-most receiver snaps behind Samuel and could fill the third receiver role previously held by Noah Brown as McLaurin continues to ramp up his involvement. Washington faces a Minnesota defense that ranks among the Top 10 toughest. The 42.5 Vegas point total is one of the lowest for the week.

Offenses with Top 2 Options > 50% and Top 3 > 70% Target Share