The Top 10: Week 3

The Top 10 features Matt Waldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads.

Matt Waldman's The Top 10: Week 3 Matt Waldman Published 09/16/2025

© Mark Hoffman / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images fantasy

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between the fantasy and reality of football analysis.

The goal of this feature is to provide you with actionable recommendations that will help you get results. The fundamental mission is to get the process right.

While it's a rush to see the box score or highlights and claim you made the right calls, doing so without a sustainable process makes success ephemeral.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

My specialty is film analysis. I've been scouting the techniques, concepts, and physical skills of offensive skill talent as my business for nearly 20 years.

The Top 10 will give you fantasy-oriented insights rooted in football analysis that have made the Rookie Scouting Portfolio one of the two most purchased independent draft guides among NFL scouts. This is what Atlanta Falcons Area Scout and former SEC recruiter Alex Brown has told me over the past 8-10 years.

Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece, available every Monday night during the season, is a viable source of information to kick-start your week as a fantasy GM. 

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 2'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the bullet points in this section. 

  1. Tucker Kraft and Tyler Warren are off to hot starts, but are they elite players or beneficiaries of scheme?
  2. Bhayshul Tuten's highlights have fantasy analysts predicting a backfield coup. Possible, but not (yet) probable.
  3. Final pass aside, Russell Wilson had his best game since 2019. Why Wilson is the key for Malik Nabers.
  4. Marvin Harrison Jr. got bigger in the offseason, but the key flaws with his pass-catching remain. 
  5. DK Metcalf is not an ideal primary receiver for an offense, but you can live with the ups and downs.
  6. George Pickens is a competent big-play threat for an NFL team, but an overrated fantasy WR.
  7. RB Jaylen Warren's PPR skills are why he's on his way to a top-12 fantasy season for his position.
  8. Zach Charbonnet goes off one week, Ken Walker III the next. It might have to do with defensive fronts.
  9. Don't Be Deluded: Thoughts on players and narratives after Weeks 1-2. 
  10. Rentals: Players with short- and long-term fantasy appeal. 

The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes

1. Are Tucker Kraft and Tyler Warren the Next Elite TEs? 

If we're defining Kraft and Warren's value by their production, the answer to this question is that it's possible based on the way that they're earning targets in their respective offenses. 

The Packers and Colts have been successful in scheming both tight ends into wide-open spaces over the past two weeks. Opposing defenses are preoccupied with other threats or placed into either/or binds with multiple players, leading to Kraft and Warren getting open with ease. 

Both Warren and Kraft have teammates who draw coverage away from them in these schemed plays. 

Kraft is off to the hottest start between the two, but he also has the most to lose. Three years ago, Kraft was the late-round scrapper with potential to develop, while the Packers were initially riding the Luke Musgrave Train. 

If Kraft gets hurt or falters in any way, Musgrave may not be as rugged of a runner or blocker, but his athletic ability and receiving skills are good enough for him to approach Kraft's current production in this offense.  The only question would be who would be running off defenders for Musgrave to get wide open if Kraft is gone? Right now, Musgrave is doing that for Kraft. 

Warren offers more than Kraft as a match-up player. A match-up player isn't solely a beneficiary of zone coverage and plays schemed to misdirect multiple defenders to get their primary target the ball in wide-open space. These options can win one-on-one or create when plays don't go as planned. 

George Kittle and Travis Kelce are match-up players. They are my current standard for elite tight ends when you're judging them by skills and not the box score. 

Kittle and Kelce can match up against cornerbacks one-on-one and win timing routes. That's a big indicator for match-up value at the position. 

I didn't see this from Kraft or Warren in college ball. Kraft hasn't shown this ability yet in Green Bay. Warren gave me some indication against the Broncos that there may be some of this match-up skill to his game as a route runner. 

This isn't a slam dunk indicator of future match-up skill, but it is a positive sign. Warren must show that he can drop his weight into hard breaks and win against press coverage. If he does, I'll change my mind about his ceiling. 

For now, both tight ends are high-end scheme players receiving love from their offensive game plans. Warren might have a little more in the tank to transcend that label.

Both are hot fantasy commodities right now. Expect them to deliver somewhere between TE6-TE12 this year. The lack of Kittle or Kelce-like value keeps them from attaining perennial top-three value.

2. Bhayshul Tuten-Mania and the State of the Jaguars' Backfield

In last week's Top 10, I shared that it looked like Tuten was the best zone runner on the team, and a split between Tuten and Travis Etienne Jr. could happen as long as he holds onto the football. Tuten's ball security rate in college was a dreadful 1 per 67 touches (11 fumbles in 737 touches). 

Tuten didn't fall below that 1 per 60 rate that has been a death knell for long-term fantasy value, but he's close enough for concern. So far, Tuten hasn't fumbled during his limited playing time. 

Instead, we've seen promising skills and athletic ability as a runner and short-range receiver.  

My bud Sigmund Bloom says Tuten reminds him of Christine Michael. I can see that in a poetic sense of comparison, because both run with a grace and athletic recklessness that borders on disaster. 

In the arena of the literal, Tuten is 15 pounds lighter. At best, I see a player aspiring to be a Charlie Garner or Tony Pollard type of player -- players you don't want to lean on as the bell cow for long periods of time, but could offer lead-back value in a committee. 

The fantasy community seems hell bent on anointing Tuten for that role in the immediate future. They're conditioned to the disappointing outcomes from Travis Etienne Jr. and not honoring what's happening in the present. 

Etienne fits Liam Coen's system. He's as explosive as Tuten, has more NFL experience with the duties of the RB position,  and he has earned Coen's trust since Spring. Coen defended Etienne against the long-held aspersions cast upon the RB's game. 

Etienne isn't going away, folks. At worst, Etienne's game-management flaws could open the door for Tuten to earn a larger share of work that leads to a near-split. 

If you didn't heed the call of my Replacements column, where I labeled Tuten an Add Now, you're now facing a bidding war with lottery-crazed fantasy GMs hoping they'll win Bucky Irving Part II. 

It's possible, but not probable. Etienne is too good, the Jaguars' coaching staff is unproven in their new roles, and this team is young and susceptible to streaky play. 

Don't break the bank on Tuten. If anything, see if there are any buy-low opportunities for Etienne. Both will help you, but Etienne remains the incumbent and has done little to lose that standing. 

3. If You're Malik Nabers, You Want Russell Wilson

It's not that Jaxson Dart won't target Nabers -- that would be absurd. It's that Wilson is still among the best deep-ball throwers in the league. 

Forget Nabers' Sunday pyrotechnics for a moment, Wilson linked up repeatedly with Wan'Dale Robinson as a vertical option. You know, that short slot receiver who is fast enough but needs uncontested targets deep to thrive...

 

Jaxson Dart isn't going to do this type of work nearly as well as Wilson. He lacks the experience with blitz and coverage disguises at this level, and he has accuracy issues when forced to reset his feet after pressure moves him off his spot in the pocket. 

Speaking of accuracy woes, Dart's charted accuracy in the 2025 Rookie Scouting Portfolio revealed significant gaps in accuracy with passes beyond 25 yards from the spot of the throw. Left tackle Andrew Thomas has been out, and the second-stringer was so bad during his first two series against Dallas that they benched him for the third-string option, Do you think Nabers would rather have Dart throwing to him? 

Check this Wilson-Nabers connection below and tell me that's the case...

While Wilson's late interception gave New York media license to chatter after all, Wilson's overall performance was his best since 2019. Wilson is an assassin with the vertical shot, and he's aggressive. 

Paired with Nabers, this team has a puncher's chance with every series, and Wilson doesn't hesitate to try.  If you're a Nabers GM with a weak team and there's legitimate chatter that Wilson's time as the starter is ending,  I'd sell high. 

4. Camp vs. Reality: Marvin Harrison Jr.

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Tags:
fantasy football 2025 Matt Waldman Footballguys Top 10 week 3 Tucker Kraft tyler warren Bhayshul Tuten Malik Nabers Russell Wilson Marvin Harrison Jaylen Warren George Pickens DK Metcalf Ken Walker III Zach Charbonnet
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