Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Free Agency Rolls On
The 2026 free-agent signing period got off to a brisk start with plenty of fantasy-relevant moves.
We've covered the most important of them in detail and compiled the stories on our Fantasy Fallout: Tracking the Important 2026 NFL Player Moves page.
Today, we're looking beyond the signings to the ripple effects.
Who benefits from a teammate leaving? Who gains value because of an addition? Who comes out ahead due to the status quo?
Let's start sorting them out . . .
The Biggest Winner
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson had a historic season in 2025.
Robinson broke the Falcons' single-season record for yards from scrimmage with 2,298. That total led the NFL and ranks 12th all-time.
In addition, he became only the second player in NFL history to gain 800 yards in the air and 1,400 yards on the ground in a single season.
Robinson was already one of fantasy's most valuable running backs. But Atlanta's offseason moves may have made his path to a potential RB1 finish even clearer.
A Fortuitous Move
The Falcons' backfield wasn't a true timeshare in 2025, as Robinson outsnapped Tyler Allgeier 860 to 328.
Allgeier's 30 percent share of the snaps was more spelling Robinson than splitting carries.
Nonetheless, the former BYU standout rushed for a career-high eight touchdowns in 2025. Even in a complementary role, Allgeier made an impact. He was expected to be a big part of Atlanta's future.
Instead, Allgeier signed a two-year contract with the Arizona Cardinals on Monday, leaving the Falcons with a vacancy at their RB2 spot behind Robinson.
While we'll all be interested in how the Falcons fill that hole in their depth chart, it's fair to wonder how much more Robinson could get with Allgeier out of the picture.
New Staff Will Have a Say
As FanSided's Jason Kandel noted, new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski will almost certainly design the offense to maximize Robinson's rare blend of agility, size, and breakaway speed.
We've seen this before. Stefanski helped Nick Chubb produce three straight 1,000-yard seasons in Cleveland, including a 1,525-yard All-Pro campaign in 2022.
Not surprisingly, Robinson approves of his new head coach and offensive coordinator, Tommy Rees.
Robinson was mic'd up while talking to Pro Bowl teammates, and he told them how excited he is to play for Stefanski and Rees. "Kevin Stefanski, he's fire bro," Robinson said. "I like him a lot, and his offensive scheme. Tommy Rees, he's the OC, but he'll call the plays."
Why the excitement?
Because Robinson, like most running backs, understands a simple concept . . .
Volume Matters More Than Anything Else
We've seen what Robinson is capable of when he gets the opportunities.
He ran the ball 22 times for 195 yards and a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. The former first-round pick added a team-high five receptions (on eight targets) for 34 yards and a score.
A 93-yard touchdown highlighted the sensational night for Robinson, as he generated 229 scrimmage yards -- his second 200-plus scrimmage-yard outing on Monday Night Football last season.
Readers don’t just see you as a reporter — they see you as a decision guide.
In the other MNF appearance, he got 25 touches against the Bills in a Week 6 showing (19 carries and six catches).
In the win over the Rams, which came in Week 17 when most managers were in Fantasy Championship games, Robinson scored 39.9 fantasy points.
He scored 35.8 against Buffalo.
We all know touches correlate well with fantasy production. But there's another factor.
Receiving Equity for the Win
Robinson's 103 targets ranked second among running backs last season.
In games where he saw at least five receptions, the 2023 first-round pick averaged 30.5 fantasy points, effectively making his receiving work the primary engine of his high-end scoring.
What will that receiving role look like this season?
QB + Scheme = A Busy Bijan
That's right. I'm expecting Robinson to be a focal point of this offense. And it's not just because Allgeier is gone.
It's also the team's situation at quarterback and the recent history of Stefanski's offenses in Cleveland.
The Falcons signed former Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, but general manager Ian Cunningham said on Friday that Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. will be competing for the starting job once Penix is cleared to return from his torn ACL.
Open competitions are never good news for incumbent starters, especially one likely to miss most of the team's offseason activities and training camp with a torn ACL.
Given that, we'll assume Tagovailoa opens the season as the starter.
If that's the case, Late-Round Fantasy's Brandon Gdula notes that Stefanski's Browns have been a low-average depth of target (aDOT) team in each of the last two seasons.
That coincides with Tua's recent data, as Tagovailoa has had an aDOT under 7.3 in each of the last two seasons.
Gdula added: "Stefanski's offense last year targeted backs and tight ends at top-five rates, and with Tagovailoa's recent rapport with De'Von Achane (19.4 percent target share last season), Robinson's receiving stock (18.8 percent target share in 2025) should remain sky-high."
That would be great, because it dovetails with . . .
What We Want the Most
Robinson's current Footballguys projection is RB1. His initial Footballguys Draft Ranking is RB1.
In fact, he's No. 1 on the overall rankings as well. It's the same spot he holds on our early Average Draft Position (ADP) data.
Robinson's story isn't about gaining value. It's about lending further confidence in using the first pick overall to secure his services in drafts this year.
And I'm confident in that projection and price at the moment.
Very confident.
Runner Up?
If we're excited about Robinson gaining a clearer path to workload, we should be almost equally enthusiastic about Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs after the Lions traded his backfield mate, David Montgomery, to the Texans.
Gibbs' current RB2 Footballguys projection mirrors his early ADP.
Montgomery spent the past three seasons in Detroit and racked up 2,506 rushing yards, 650 receiving yards, and 33 touchdowns.
But his role in Detroit's offense diminished as Gibbs ascended, with Montgomery going from 219 carries in 2023 to 185 in 2024.
That number fell to 158 last season.
Montgomery's touches-per-game average was barely over 10 in 2025 after being over 15 in each of his first two years. He didn't have more than 10 carries in a game in any of the Lions' final eight games last year.
Gibbs, who finished the season as RB3, was RB2 over the aforementioned eight-game stretch to close out the campaign.
Here's the Best Part
The Lions signed Kansas City's Isiah Pacheco to work behind Gibbs.
Will Detroit ask him to take some of the third-down and goal-line carries Montgomery took?
Seems unlikely.
Even though I agree with Footballguy Sigmund Bloom's view that Pacheco is the kind of "kneecap biter" that head coach Dan Campbell will love, the newcomer will have to pick up the pace to be a contributor here.
As I noted in his Fantasy Fallout article, in the past two seasons, Pacheco had nine carries for 15 yards and one score on third and short (1-2 yards) or fourth down. In 2025, he had zero goal-line carries and took three in 2024 for one total yard and one score.
Unless he can break out of those red-zone and short-yardage doldrums, Pacheco is going to offer little to fantasy managers beyond the same insurance for Gibbs he'll provide the Lions.
And that won't bother Gibbs' investors at all.
To be sure, Pacheco's ADP, RB73, hasn't caught up with this development.
But his RB48 Footballguys projection isn't out of line, and those looking for insurance for Gibbs would probably be willing to pay a slight premium to secure his services.
But the bottom line here? Like it is with Robinson, workload is going to work in Gibbs' favor.
Volume is the currency fantasy investors can bank on.
The Biggest Loser
As ESPN.com framed it, "The Minnesota Vikings made what could develop into a franchise-altering decision on Thursday," signing quarterback Kyler Murray to a one-year contract worth $1.3 million.
The deal was cheap because Murray had already been guaranteed $36.8 million by the Arizona Cardinals, who released him on Wednesday.
But the implications will be far-reaching if Murray ends up replacing J.J. McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft, who has started only 10 games in two seasons because of injuries.
Could it be the beginning of the end for McCarthy in Minnesota?
How We Got Here
While he got off to a strong start, Murray's tenure in Arizona was uneven, shaped by injuries and inconsistency.
Vikings officials, meanwhile, acknowledged in January that they wanted to add genuine competition for McCarthy, who finished his first -- and perhaps only -- season as a starter with a 72.6 passer rating after throwing for 1,632 yards with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
That passer rating ranked dead last among the 26 quarterbacks who started at least 10 games in 2025.
Where We're Going
As ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert notes, O'Connell believes that, if nothing else, rigorous competition at the position would help elevate McCarthy. He never said he wanted McCarthy to be his starter, but he also never said he wanted to replace him.
Still, Murray, the No. 1 pick of the 2019 draft, who has accounted for 153 touchdowns in his career, represents more than competition.
Which begs a question . . .
Will It Really be a Competition?
As Seifert put it, "The history of both players, and the amount of ground McCarthy would need to gain in the coming months, makes Murray the heavy favorite to be the Week 1 starting quarterback."
Barring injury, it's hard to envision a different outcome.
In his worst NFL seasons, Murray has played better than McCarthy did last year.
What If Murray Succeeds This Year?
While we've seen plenty of quarterbacks with redemption in their career arcs, it usually requires more than one stop.
And if Murray wins the starting job, McCarthy's future with the Vikings is bleak.
Since the start of this century, there is no precedent for a quarterback drafted in the top 10 to be replaced in the offseason but then reclaim his starter's role in future seasons with his original team.
As Seifert acknowledged, there are some unique circumstances around McCarthy's time in the NFL, most notably the number of injuries.
But history isn't kind to displaced first-round quarterbacks.
Very few regain the job with the team that drafted them.
Only three quarterbacks drafted at any point in the first round since 2000 have received fewer than 10 starts with the team that drafted them: the San Francisco 49ers' Trey Lance, Paxton Lynch of the Denver Broncos, and Johnny Manziel of the Cleveland Browns.
If there's a path back for McCarthy, it's that Murray's deal includes a no-tag clause.
While it won't keep the newcomer from returning in 2027, it ensures Murray will be available to the highest bidder . . .
