Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Building Our Baseline Values
With the frantic portion of free agency behind us, most NFL observers will shift their focus to next month's NFL Draft.
But fantasy managers still have some things to sort out as we go through the current cycle of signings. For us, this semi-quiet month before the draft gives us time to set expectations, assign initial values, and develop our draft strategies.
But there are some caveats: First and foremost among them . . .
Things Will Change
New information will force us to rethink our positions. That's neither new nor alarming.
It's part of the process. This is the time to build initial values -- but not fall in love with them.
We'll make the necessary adjustments as developments warrant, and the process will only sharpen our views and better define our strategies.
Let's start by asking some simple questions that might challenge conventional outlooks and test assumptions about specific player moves . . .
Too Good to be True?
What if the Chiefs learn the same thing about Ken Walker III that Seattle did?
As SI.com's Michael Fabiano wrote, "Walker's move from Seattle (and Zach Charbonnet) and into a featured role in Kansas City is a win."
ESPN.com's Nate Taylor added to that by reminding us that the biggest hole on the roster was arguably at running back.
The Chiefs needed a starter.
They want to be more explosive in their running attack.
They need to take pressure off quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, coming off a torn ACL, the most significant injury of his nine-year career.
But Walker may not be built for full three-down usage.
The Numbers Are Solid Enough
For his career, Walker has rushed for 3,555 yards with 29 touchdowns (to go with a pair of receiving scores).
He's compiled 4,560 scrimmage yards with an average of 1,229 per season across his three healthy years.
But the appeal goes beyond that . . .
Home-Run Upside
Walker's greatest strength is his ability to create big plays by picking up yards after contact.
He broke 61 tackles in 2025, ranking fifth among all running backs.
As a result, he delivered 33 runs of double-digit yardage, which ranked sixth in the NFL behind only De'Von Achane (40), James Cook (39), Derrick Henry (36), Bijan Robinson (36), and Jonathan Taylor (36).
Walker's explosive run rate of 14.9 percent ranked third among all running backs.
Ten of those 33 runs amassed at least 20 yards on the ground, which also ranked third in the league.
The Chiefs Haven't Had That
They haven't come close.
Last season, running backs Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco combined for just one run of more than 20 yards.
ESPN.com's Aaron Schatz chimed in by reminding readers that a good running back -- and more importantly, an explosive one -- matters when you have an offensive line that can create rushing lanes.
Led by Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith, the Chiefs have a line that can do that . . .
An Important Ingredient
Stats matter. But production doesn't happen without volume.
Fabiano notes that Chiefs coach Andy Reid hasn't been shy about using a featured back when he's had one on the roster, and Walker's contract (three years, $43 million) screams big workload.
But the same could be said of Seahawks' play-caller Klint Kubiak, who leaned heavily on a single back while calling the shots in New Orleans in 2024, and who made it clear upon arrival in Seattle that putting the ball in Walker's hands was a priority.
It didn't work out that way.
Instead, it was nearly a 50/50 timeshare.
Zach Charbonnet played 49 percent of the offensive snaps. Walker played 47 percent. Although Walker remained the starter, the Seahawks used Charbonnet as their primary short-yardage and red-zone back.
This strategy paid off in touchdowns, but the heavy use of Charbonnet wasn't just about tactical preference; it was a health-related strategy.
Preservation was a Priority
Reports indicated that the coaching staff intentionally capped Walker's workload to manage a lingering foot injury that limited him during training camp, ensuring he remained available for all 17 games.
It wasn't until Charbonnet suffered a torn ACL in the divisional round that Walker handled a featured role.
With Charbonnet sidelined, Walker totaled 417 scrimmage yards -- and scored four touchdowns -- to lead all players in the postseason.
Health Isn't the Only Issue
Productive as he was in that featured role, there are weaknesses in Walker's game that could keep the Chiefs from employing him as an every-down option.
As ESPN.com's Bill Barnwell noted, even in their most important moment, the Super Bowl win over New England, the Seahawks used George Holani on 33.3 percent of the snaps instead of giving Walker every-down work.
Why?
Walker is a serviceable receiver.
Pass protection?
Not his strength . . .
That Might Explain the Next Move
The Chiefs made a second addition to their backfield on Monday, signing speedy running back Emari Demercado, who averaged 6.5 yards per carry during his three seasons in Arizona.
More importantly, he's an experienced blocker in pass-protection. In total, Demercado yielded just eight pressures on his 104 pass-blocking snaps for the Cardinals.
If Mahomes has to work his way up to speed upon return, pass protection is going to be important.
But that's not new. We've seen it before . . .
A Historical Comparison
When the Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the 32nd pick overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, his fantasy stock skyrocketed. As the season opened, Edwards-Helaire was being drafted in the first round based on the expectation he would emerge as an every-down back.
At the time, Footballguy Jason Wood asked the pertinent questions: "Can Edwards-Helaire handle a full-time workload? Can he block well enough for Reid to trust him, when the team has multiple veteran options who absolutely know how to keep Mahomes upright?"
Even if I don't foresee Walker's price rising as Edwards-Helaire's did, Wood's questions are as pertinent now as they were prescient then.
The Answer
Walker's price is rising. He's RB9 on our current Average Draft Position (ADP) Rankings. He was RB15 before signing with the Chiefs.
His Footballguys projection, RB13, is more reasonable.
He has produced at that level. Walker was RB12 on a points-per-game basis over the 11 games he played in 2024.
But Dave Kluge and Joey Wright suggested earlier this week, on an episode of the Footballguys Fantasy Football Show, that we shouldn't get too far in front of this one.
Their view is that no one should entirely fade Walker. He can still be a strong RB2.
"But the idea that he automatically becomes a top-tier RB1 just because he joined Kansas City feels like wishcasting based on what the Chiefs offense used to be," Kluge added. "Not what it has been recently."
That's a fair assessment, and Walker's anticipated workload is something we'll be watching closely as the season draws nearer . . .
Hard Choice in the Big Easy?
What if Travis Etienne Jr. wasn't the best choice for the Saints?
As the Sporting News noted, the New Orleans Saints ended 2025 with some hope for the future with Tyler Shough, and as free agency got underway, the franchise got the ball rolling for 2026 by signing former Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. to a four-year, $52 million deal.
Already with Alvin Kamara on the roster, the move for Etienne was seen as a little odd, although it gives Shough and the Saints two genuine weapons out of the backfield.
But is it Ideal?
Not everyone is on board with the move.
"For the first time in what seems like years, the Saints entered free agency with a bit of cap room to maneuver," ESPN's Seth Walder wrote. "They opted for one decent-sized signing in Etienne, but it's not a move I can endorse."
SBNation's Mark Schofield and James Dator were even more critical.
"Etienne ranked 25th in the NFL this season among running backs with over 100 carries on the season," they noted. "Now he's being paid on par with guys like Jonathan Taylor and James Cook, who have a much greater impact on the game.
"You can draft a Travis Etienne. The league is full of Travis Etiennes. This was a mammoth overpay."
I'm open to better outcomes.
But his chances will hinge on decisions that have yet to be made . . .
Like What About Kamara?
It isn't known if the Saints will move on from Kamara, or if the franchise sees the two backs working in tandem in 2026.
A recent restructuring of Kamara's contract did not add any guaranteed money beyond the $3 million already on the books for the veteran back so that the team could part ways with him via a trade or release.
Kamara could also retire as he has said in the past that he would not be interested in playing for any team other than the Saints. Last Thursday, head coach Kellen Moore said he hasn't "had those conversations in any way" when asked about the retirement possibility and made no commitments when it came to Kamara's future with the team.
Kamara only played in 11 games during the 2025 season and posted a career-low 657 scrimmage yards after reaching at least 1,160 yards in each of his first eight NFL seasons.
The team may have hinted at the outcome by signing former Vikings running back Ty Chandler, a home-run hitter with 4.38 speed who could serve as a change-of-pace option.
Money Talks, But . . .
Given Etienne's price, however, the Saints must see him as a focal point of the offense.
You don't commit $13 million a year for a player to be second-fiddle.
But it's also fair to question whether you give it to a 27-year-old running back who, as Schofield and Dator argue, "Could fall off the cliff at any moment -- and before that he wasn't an impact running back."
Etienne has three 1,000-yard rushing seasons on his resume, but it's not hard to find those who believe he's a product of load more than individual ability -- that he's a career 4.2 yards per carry back, who has never been as much of a dual threat as advertised.
In addition, the bigger driver of running-play success is offensive line play.
The Saints ranked 23rd in Run Block Win Rate and 30th in yards before contact per carry last season. Those numbers don't work in Etienne's favor.
The Answer
The Saints could have gotten similar production for less. They didn't.
Etienne is it.
His value will be determined by -- say it with me -- volume.
The critics admit it, and we've seen it. Give him the opportunity, and he'll produce. Etienne has demonstrated that with two top-10 fantasy finishes -- RB10 last year and RB3 in 2023 -- in the last three seasons.
Etienne's ADP has gone from RB18 to RB14 since his signing. The price isn't far off our RB20 projection.
Those numbers reflect a rational range.
For now.
But if we gain clarity on Etienne getting the full role to himself? I'll be buying at that price . . .
