DraftKings GPP Domination: Divisional Round

Photo: Jim Brown, USA Today Sports

The NFL regular season is over but DraftKings is still running huge GPP contests for the Divisional Round, including the $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire with a $1,000,000 prize for first place. If you are a regular reader of this article, you should already understand the importance of entering unique lineups in top-heavy, large-field tournaments such as this week’s Milly Maker. On a four-game slate, where competing rosters will overlap much more than usual, the urgency to separate your lineups from those of your opponents becomes amplified.

The most important thing you can do before building lineups this week is to tighten up your player pool by scripting each game. As an example, let’s say you feel strongly about Kansas City blowing out Houston. What would that look like in a box score? Carlos Hyde’s defense vs. position matchup and affordable salary make him an OK point-per-dollar value on the surface. But if you think the Texans will be playing from behind, Hyde is unlikely to see enough touches (or carry enough touchdown equity) to reach his ceiling. If the game goes according to your script, avoiding Hyde completely will help your lineups jump in front of the ~15% that will include him.

With this concept in mind, our format will change for the playoffs. The focus will be on predicting the outcome of each game and building a player pool that is fully in sync with those predictions.

Vikings @ 49ers

Game Script

Minnesota pulled the upset last week by winning the battle of the trenches against the Saints league-best offensive line. The 49ers linemen form a solid unit but aren’t on the same level as New Orleans. While a repeat performance is a big ask for the Vikings in San Francisco, Minnesota’s front seven has to be playing with confidence right now and is capable of dictating the game script for a second-straight week. Siding against first-time playoff quarterbacks worked out well in the Wild Card round and playoff newbie Jimmy Garoppolo is prone to make a poor decision or two most weeks. This game should be close and could go the Vikings way if Dalvin Cook can find running room.

High Exposure Plays

Deebo Samuel ($5,200) - Since Week 8, Samuel is the cumulative WR10 in DraftKings scoring format. On most regular-season main slates, the WR10 was typically priced in the $7K range, which indicates Samuel is an excellent point-per-dollar value relative to his second-half production. Already one of the best yards-after-the-catch receivers in the game as a rookie, Samuel presents a mismatch for anyone Minnesota can throw at him in coverage -- especially with Xavier Rhodes struggling, and fellow cornerbacks Mackensie Alexander and Mike Hughes set to miss their second straight game.

George Kittle ($6,200) - Travis Kelce’s matchup gives him the slight edge over Kittle as the best tight end play on the slate but you want plenty of exposure to both players and have a green light to use them together in the same lineup. Kittle finished the regular season hotter than any non-Tyler Higbee tight end and is all but locked into his usual 8-10 targets. The Vikings have talent at safety and linebacker but Kittle isn’t phased by matchups and his touchdown potential is theoretically elevated by the 49ers status as home favorites.

Dalvin Cook ($8,000) - Cook put any doubts about the health of his shoulder to rest by turning 28 carries and five targets into 130 total yards and two touchdowns against the Saints’ fifth-ranked rush defense (DVOA) last week. The 49ers, who allowed the third-fewest PPR fantasy points to enemy running backs this season, represent another stiff test but one Cook is more than capable of acing. Even if the game plays out closer to Vegas’ implied script, Cook would gain the upside for six-to-eight targets as a pass-catcher. As the only game-flow independent running back on the slate, Cook warrants overall RB1 exposure and can be used as a run-back option in 49ers stacks.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,600) - If San Francisco is limited to two-to-three touchdowns, it doesn’t leave Garoppolo with much of a ceiling. The 49ers scored 50% of their touchdowns on the ground this year, which was the third-highest rate in the league. There are, however, two important reasons to come in over the field on Garoppolo:

1. He is cheap. Garoppolo has exceeded a 4x multiple of his current salary in 25% of his games this season, a rate that figures to double his ownership.

2. So are his pass-catchers. Kittle, at a middling $6,200, is Garoppolo’s most expensive stacking partner. If a 49ers team stack hits, it will likely be surrounded by expensive plays from the most favorable offenses.

Also in the Player Pool

Titans @ Ravens

Game Script

The Titans are simply overmatched. They come out flat following one of the biggest wins in the organization’s history and their defense is unable to stop a well-rested Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry remains effective on a per-carry basis but is neutralized by a negative game script. Ryan Tannehill looks much closer to the shaky quarterback we thought he was prior to the season but does enough to make one Titans pass-catcher relevant while trying to catch up.

High Exposure Plays

Lamar Jackson ($8,400) - This is the highest quarterback salary we’ve seen on DraftKings in years but Jackson still isn’t priced at his ceiling. It’s tempting to fade him at projected high ownership but missing out on Jackson’s usual 30+ DraftKings points can quickly bury you on a short slate. Baltimore’s third-ranked offensive line should have little trouble handling Tennessee’s pass rush, which would allow Jackson the time to connect on downfield throws. His usual 60+ rushing yards and coin-flip odds of scoring a rushing touchdown are just the gravy.

Gus Edwards ($4,900) - As of this writing, Mark Ingram has been limited in practice by renewed tightness in his injured calf. If Ingram plays, Edwards is an excellent GPP play. His outs to reaching value include:

• Ingram reinjuring his calf during the game

• Taking on a larger role because Ingram isn’t healthy enough to carry his usual load

• Poaching a random goal-line touchdown

• Salting away a Ravens blowout win
  

Should Ingram scratch, Edwards becomes the chalk but he would still be a tough fade given the context of this slate. Edwards is fast for his size with above-average burst and is coming off a 21-130-0 rushing line in Week 17.

Mark Andrews ($5,600) - Andrews will be Jackson’s most popular stacking partner but he should get shaded by Kittle and Kelce, who only cost slightly more. We usually want to target pass-catching tight ends on heavy home favorites due to their increased touchdown expectation and Andrews fits the athletic profile of tight ends who have given Tennessee trouble this season, including David Njoku, Eric Ebron, Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, Kelce, and Jared Cook.

Also in the Player Pool

Texans @ Chiefs

Game Script

A healthy Kansas City team avenges their Week 6 home loss to the Texans in convincing fashion. Patrick Mahomes II is able to do whatever he wants against a poor Houston secondary that will have all sorts of trouble trying to stop Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Deshaun Watson never seems to go down easily in big games and will make the final score look closer than the game actually was. Regardless of the outcome, this is a game that will be played at a fast pace between two explosive offenses. It will be the most heavily-stacked game on the slate for good reason.

High Exposure Plays

Patrick Mahomes II ($7,500) - The $900 discount from Jackson should make Mahomes the chalkiest quarterback play. Regardless, you’ll at least want to match the field’s projected ~25% ownership. The Texans closed out the regular season allowing 25% more fantasy points than league average to opposing quarterbacks. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Mahomes flash a 35-point ceiling but we know he’s capable. If you trust Andy Reid to work his usual post-bye magic, you’ve got to like Mahomes’ odds of exploiting the favorable matchup.

Damien Williams ($6,000) - It was too little, too late for those who drafted him in the second round of redraft leagues over the summer, but Williams closed out the season as Kansas City’s clear feature back. Over the final two weeks, he accounted for, 75% of the Chiefs’ running back carries and 80% of the team’s receptions out of the backfield. Most importantly, he looked healthy and explosive, breaking an 84-yard touchdown run and scoring twice in Week 17. If this is the usage we can expect from Williams, he’s underpriced by at least $1,000. The problem is the field knows it. Check Steve Buzzard’s ownership projections before game time. If Williams is still due to appear in over half of tournament lineups, the best play is to fade him.

Travis Kelce ($6,400) - If you asked the average DFS player which tight end led the league in cumulative DraftKings points in 2019, you might hear a few names mentioned before Kelce’s, but he out-paced the TE2, Darren Waller, by a 10% margin. Kelce is still every bit the player that opened the season with a consistent $7K+ price tag. He just had bad luck scoring touchdowns all year. Priced between Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, Kelce is a screaming value. He’ll be high-owned but Kittle’s presence on the slate should keep him out of 50% territory in most large fields. Get more than your opponents

Darren Fells ($3,500) - Rostering a tight end besides Kelce or Kittle is the easiest path to a unique lineup. If Jordan Akins sits again (he was practicing on a limited basis as of Thursday), Fells will pick up additional snaps and targets for a second straight week. The Chiefs’ defense improved over the course of the season but remained a plus matchup for enemy tight ends until the end. Fells posted a 7-6-69-0 receiving line when these teams met in Week 6.

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,200) - Kansas City’s defense scored in the double-digits on DraftKings in each of their last three games and five of their previous six. They’ve done an exceptional job getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers over the second half of the season, and Deshaun Watson struggles when pressured. The ceiling and floor are both high for the Chiefs in this spot, even if they give up 24+ points.

Also in the Player Pool

Seahawks @ Packers

Game Script

The 13-3 Packers are exposed as fraudulent. Russell Wilson, as usual, thrives as an underdog and puts the Seahawks offense on his back. He’s able to create enough time in the pocket to hit a handful of big plays downfield, while Green Bay’s offense remains stuck in neutral.

High Exposure Plays

Russell Wilson ($6,600) - The crowd will pile on Mahomes and Jackson, leaving Wilson lightly-owned in a great spot. With Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny injured, even Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer understand Wilson is their offense’s only hope. Green Bay ranked second-to-last in adjusted sack rate this season. If their pass rush can’t get to Wilson, we’re going to see big games from Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

Tyler Lockett ($6,600) - See above. Lockett is now priced below Metcalf and may also have the ownership advantage if entrants decide to chase last week’s boxscore. Green Bay’s corners can be beaten both from the slot and on the perimeter.

Davante Adams ($7,800) - Adams accounts for such a high percentage of Aaron Rodgers’ production, he almost can’t fail even if Rodgers has a subpar game. Over the last three weeks of the regular season, Adams recorded at least 13 targets -- and at least 22 DraftKings points -- in every game. Alpha-dog wide receivers in Adams’ mold had Seattle’s number all season. 10-7-100-1 isn’t terribly far off a baseline projection for Adams in this spot.

Also in the Player Pool

Follow @PhilFBG