For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
2019 FORMAT:
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Warren Moon | @CAR | $6,400 | 11% | Yes | «««« | 4 stars = Best GPP selections. |
| Joe Montana | KC | $8,000 | 18% | - | ««« | 3 stars = Better GPP selections. |
| Dan Marino | NYG | $4,400 | 3% | Yes | «« | 2 stars = Good GPP selections. |
| Jim Kelly | @OAK | $5,100 | 7% | - | « | 1 star = Average GPP selections. |
A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:
- The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
- The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
- The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
- 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
- 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
- 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
- 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
- If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
| NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
| Jared Goff | @ATL | $6,200 | 12% | Yes | «««« | ATL secondary is dreadful: 31st DVOA D vs. pass. |
| Aaron Rodgers | OAK | $6,400 | 4% | - | «««« | Rodgers will find his backup WRs just fine. |
| Gardner Minshew | @CIN | $5,400 | 4% | - | «««« | Plus matchup for rookie QB vs. 30th-ranked pass defense. |
| Matt Ryan | LAR | $6,300 | 18% | Yes | ««« | Looking for 7th-straight 300-yard passing game. |
| Jacoby Brissett | HOU | $5,600 | 3% | - | ««« | Price and potential for shootout make 3% too low. |
| Josh Allen | MIA | $6,500 | 9% | - | «« | Excellent matchup. Multiple cheap stacking options. |
| Daniel Jones | ARZ | $6,100 | 6% | - | «« | ARZ: Friendliest QB defense in league: 25.2 FPs/game. |
| Kyler Murray | @NYG | $6,700 | 9% | - | «« | Lack of defense keeps Kyler in play. Kirk returns, too. |
| Kirk Cousins | @DET | $5,800 | 3% | - | « | Small piece to pair with Thielen or Diggs. Minimal. |
| Matthew Stafford | MIN | $5,200 | 2% | - | « | Only here for the Golladay stacks. A few percent. |
| Deshaun Watson | @IND | $7,000 | 5% | - | « | Seems overpriced here. Suspect a letdown performance. |
| Russell Wilson | BAL | $6,600 | 10% | - | « | Underrated 2019 numbers. Carson's touches limit upside. |
| Lamar Jackson | @SEA | $6,800 | 11% | - | « | Would be more excited if Hollywood Brown were 100%. |
QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:
CASH: Look no further than the likely barnburner in Atlanta for your cash game quarterbacks this week. Matt Ryan is offered up at $6.3K after hitting the 300-yard passing bonus every week this season; we all know that he's more reliable at home and he faces a Rams defense that funnels action towards the pass due to their 5th-ranked DVOA rush defense. Helping Ryan's cause is the fact that the Rams have the highest implied team total on the Vegas board, which should keep these two quarterbacks gunning for another for a full 60 minutes of football. For his part, Goff arguably brings the league's best wide receiver trio and questions at running back with Todd Gurley coming off an injury and Malcolm Brown already named inactive. The case for Goff is bolstered when considering the Falcons' 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to his position this season.
GPP: In tournaments, the aforementioned Jared Goff and Matt Ryan are both squarely in play despite elevated ownership; feel free to go even with the field, in terms of your own exposure. Elsewhere, there is good reason to consider leveraging the massive ownership on Leonard Fournette and instead rostering his quarterback, Gardner Minshew ($5.4K), with one of his receivers as a cheap stack option. Minshew has demonstrated significant upside against lesser defenses (Kansas City and Carolina) this season and certainly has the chops to dice through this 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense that the Bengals will field on Sunday. If the Jags follow Vegas' script and Fournette falters, it will almost assuredly be on the arm of Minshew on only 4% of tournament rosters. Elsewhere, the DFS community is going to avoid Aaron Rodgers because he will be without his WR1, WR2, and WR3 in the form of Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Geronimo Allison. But Rodgers is a future Hall-of-Famer who has the ability to make any receiver look good, so we should take advantage of his low ownership and stack him with any of his receivers, all of whom are $4.2K or less. The match up against the Raiders, whose 6th-ranked rush defense (DVOA) has allowed only 1 team to surpass 100 rushing yards on the season, a strong indicator that Rodgers may do the heavy lifting here to notch the win for the Pack. Lastly, give Josh Allen a second look as a possible GPP quarterback on this slate. His team boasts the second-highest implied team total and the matchup against the Dolphins' lowly defense is superb. Most will pair him with John Brown, but Brown was limited for much of the week with a hamstring injury, which could feasibly elevate Cole Beasley or Duke Williams as lower-owned stacking partners.
