Photo: Jerry Habraken, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

2019 FORMAT:

A new year brings a new format. In an effort to condense and enhance the value of the article, the text of Tips and Picks will be less than in years' past, but the upside is that you will now gain access to my full GPP player pool for DraftKings each and every week! For each position, I will provide Footballguys' subscribers with every player that I consider to be viable for cash games, while providing a ranking for every player that I will be drafting in my tournament lineups. The above table is an example of what you will see in the "Picks" section of this article. See below for some important bullet points regarding the new format:

• The "CROWD EXPOSURE" column is based on Steve Buzzard's Ownership Projections each week.
• The "CASH VIABLE?" column reveals to the reader which players can be considered for cash games (50/50's, double-ups, and head-to-head contests).
• The "GPP STARS" column rates players according to how I rank them in my large-field GPP contests each week:
  • 4 stars: The players in which I will be most overweight on the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are my most confident plays.
  • 3 stars: The players in which I like more than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these are plays that I feel strongly could deliver.
  • 2 stars: The players in which I will be close to the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column); these players reflect those that I think the public percentages are most accurate.
  • 1 star: The players in which I will be exposed at rates lower than the public (indicated in the 'Crowd Exposure' column) OR at rates generally lower than 5% overall; these are players who merit consideration in your overall approach, but will be limited in my player pool due to game strategy reasons.
• If you have any questions on the new format, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

QUARTERBACK QUICK TAKES:

CASH: Look no further than the likely barnburner in Atlanta for your cash game quarterbacks this week. Matt Ryan is offered up at $6.3K after hitting the 300-yard passing bonus every week this season; we all know that he's more reliable at home and he faces a Rams defense that funnels action towards the pass due to their 5th-ranked DVOA rush defense. Helping Ryan's cause is the fact that the Rams have the highest implied team total on the Vegas board, which should keep these two quarterbacks gunning for another for a full 60 minutes of football. For his part, Goff arguably brings the league's best wide receiver trio and questions at running back with Todd Gurley coming off an injury and Malcolm Brown already named inactive. The case for Goff is bolstered when considering the Falcons' 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense that has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to his position this season.

GPP: In tournaments, the aforementioned Jared Goff and Matt Ryan are both squarely in play despite elevated ownership; feel free to go even with the field, in terms of your own exposure. Elsewhere, there is good reason to consider leveraging the massive ownership on Leonard Fournette and instead rostering his quarterback, Gardner Minshew ($5.4K), with one of his receivers as a cheap stack option. Minshew has demonstrated significant upside against lesser defenses (Kansas City and Carolina) this season and certainly has the chops to dice through this 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense that the Bengals will field on Sunday. If the Jags follow Vegas' script and Fournette falters, it will almost assuredly be on the arm of Minshew on only 4% of tournament rosters. Elsewhere, the DFS community is going to avoid Aaron Rodgers because he will be without his WR1, WR2, and WR3 in the form of Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Geronimo Allison. But Rodgers is a future Hall-of-Famer who has the ability to make any receiver look good, so we should take advantage of his low ownership and stack him with any of his receivers, all of whom are $4.2K or less. The match up against the Raiders, whose 6th-ranked rush defense (DVOA) has allowed only 1 team to surpass 100 rushing yards on the season, a strong indicator that Rodgers may do the heavy lifting here to notch the win for the Pack. Lastly, give Josh Allen a second look as a possible GPP quarterback on this slate. His team boasts the second-highest implied team total and the matchup against the Dolphins' lowly defense is superb. Most will pair him with John Brown, but Brown was limited for much of the week with a hamstring injury, which could feasibly elevate Cole Beasley or Duke Williams as lower-owned stacking partners.

RUNNING BACKS

RUNNING BACK RUNDOWN:

CASH: Leonard Fournette stands out at the top cash game running back this week against the Bengals' 27th-ranked DVOA rush defense. Fournette is an every-down running back who has compiled 25+ touches for 3 consecutive weeks and should see similar action as a short road favorite on Sunday. While we are addressing Fournette's cash game viability, it is worth noting that he will be the most popular player on the Sunday main slate in tournaments and I will be going significantly underweight on his projected 35+% ownership by rostering Gardner Minshew with select Jags receivers; if Fournette finishes without scoring, something that has already happened in five out of six Jags' contests this season, lineups that do not feature his name will catapult past the 35+% that do. Chris Carson is another volume-based cash game option at home against a Ravens defense that bled yardage (and touchdowns) to Nick Chubb just a few weeks ago. Carson is reasonably priced and should see enough opportunity as a short home favorite to merit consideration for both cash and GPP games. A pair of options exists at the $5.0K price point: Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon are reasonably priced and have matchups that favor solid scoring floors. Jacobs will face off against the Packers, whose defensive strength is defending the pass; with Derek Carr under center and Jon Gruden calling the plays, Jacobs should get plenty of opportunity to deliver the 15 DK points you will need to justify his spot on your cash game rosters this weekend. Mixon is a bit scarier coming off a miserable 10 rushing yard performance last week, but the remedy should be the Jags' 32nd-ranked DVOA rush defense, one that allows 27.2 DK points per game to the position (25th in the NFL).

GPP: I typically do not like to go significantly overweight on players rostered on > 20% of tournament lineups, but there is a distinct possibility that I will do exactly that with Saquon Barkley on Sunday against the Cardinals. Barkley logged full practices throughout the week and should be well-rested after missing several weeks with an ankle injury. The Cardinals do not much up well at all against the uber-talented running back and it would not be surprising to see him finish with multiple touchdowns in the absence of the Giants' best receiver (Sterling Shepard). Tevin Coleman is another four-star GPP selection this week coming off back-to-back touchdown-scoring performances in his last two contests. Coleman's usage is trending upwards and it appears that Kyle Shanahan believes him to be the better goalline back of Coleman and Matt Breida, the latter of whom has consistently lost redzone carries to Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and now Tevin Coleman. The matchup against the Redskins is solid, as Washington allows 38% more production to opposing running backs than league-adjusted opponents and the Vegas odds (Niners minus nine points...no pun intended) argues that Coleman (and Breida) should get ample opportunity to accrue fantasy points. Some more contrarian options include Jamaal Williams and Kenyan Drake, both of whom will be on ~ 2% of tournament lineups. Williams is the lesser-talented running back in Green Bay, but the staff is insistent in providing him snaps and touches; at a $3K discount and half the ownership of Aaron Jones, he is the better tournament option for the 4.5-point home favorites. Lastly, Drake is cheaply priced and in line for some positive scoring regression after not scoring for the first 6 weeks of the season despite touching the ball 60 times. He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and can be used in gamestacks that feature Josh Allen and your favorite Bills receiver.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WIDE RECEIVER WALK-THROUGH:

CASH: There is no reason to spend up at the wide receiver position in cash game formats this week because the highest-priced receivers have not been as consistent as we would otherwise want for cash games. First, give consideration to Dede Westbrook ($4.9K) against the Bengals who are missing both of their starting defensive backs (Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson III) due to injuries. Westbrook has been overshadowed by D.J. Chark Jr in recent weeks, but he is still the best receiver on this team and should be on far more tournament rosters than his projected 4%. After Westbrook, there are a series of wide receivers in the mid-$5K range that should be considered for cash games: T.Y. Hilton, Tyler Boyd, and Kenny Golladay are all viable options. Hilton is 100% healthy for the first time in nearly two months and matches up against a Texans defense that has not had an answer for him in years. Boyd was shut down by the impressive Marlon Humphrey last week, but is in a rebound spot against the Jalen Ramsey-less Jaguars secondary this Sunday; prior to last week's debacle, only two receivers had more targets on the season than Boyd. And Golladay should have no troubles getting past the likes of Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes at home on Sunday; Golladay has surpassed 100 receiving yards and/or scored in every game expect for one this season, setting his floor expectations high in Week #7. Lastly, Allen Lazard is offered up at the stone-cold site minimum $3.0K price point against the Raiders. I am somewhat surprised that he is only projected to be owned in 18% of tournament contests given that fact that the Packers will be without their three best wide receivers on Sunday. Lazard is a free space in cash games and the risk for tournaments is so minimal that going upwards of 20% is merited. With the 11:30 AM announcement that Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison will be active today, Lazard should NOT be in your cash games and the recommendation is to limit him to < 5-8% in your tournament lineups. Also, this makes Aaron Rodgers a superb GPP option at only 3% ownership--feel free to get about 3-4x that amount in your GPP portfolio.

GPP: The Ravens' Marlon Humphrey is now rated amongst the top ten coverage cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus after shutting down Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr, and Tyler Boyd, to name a few. This week, Tyler Lockett will become Humphrey's next victim, which should mean ample opportunity for the physical freak, DK Metcalf, to put up some gaudy numbers. Metcalf has displayed immense athleticism and big play ability across a half-dozen NFL games, but has not yet surpassed 100 receiving yards--that changes on Sunday. In Buffalo, feel free to run out a double-stack of Cole Beasley and Duke Williams with Josh Allen against the Dolphins' punchless defense. Williams took over WR2 duties after the Zay Jones trade and Beasley is another player who has mysteriously not found the endzone despite heavy usage; if they both find paydirt on Sunday, it would have been at the expense of John Brown, the crowd favorite, which would provide leverage against those lineups. It goes without saying, but any of the Rams receivers are in play against the Falcons beleaguered secondary, one that allows the third-most fantasy points to the position; of the trio of Rams' receivers, Robert Woods is my favorite to get into the endzone this weekend. For contrarian GPP differentiators, Deon Cain and Jake Kumerow offer high leverage against T.Y. Hilton and Allen Lazard, respectively; if either Hilton or Lazard falter, it could be because alternative receivers delivered big fantasy days.

TIGHT ENDS

TIGHT END TIDBITS:

CASH: Despite limited overall options at the position, there is a lot to like at tight end this week. Evan Engram is the top cash and GPP selection against the Cardinals, whose inability to defend the position is becoming almost comical. Engram gets an additional boost because his WR1 stablemate, Sterling Shepard, will miss his second consecutive game under the league's concussion protocol. In the barnburner in Atlanta, you could do worse than rolling with Austin Hooper yet again, as the fourth-year tight end has 50 targets on the season, only 3 behind Julio Jones. The matchup against the Rams is unimposing, as they have allowed nearly 200 receiving yards to opposing tight ends over the past 2 weeks. If neither of the previous options are amenable to your comfort, both Darren Waller and Hunter Henry are reasonable cash game options, as well. Waller has become Derek Carr's security blanket, collecting targets at a rate almost double of the next closest Raiders receiver, while Henry looked stellar in his 2019 debut last week and is affordably priced at only $4.0K.

GPP: In tournament formats, Jimmy Graham is an attractive contrarian option because he represents the only Packers receiver with an established rapport with Aaron Rodgers. Graham is a big redzone target and matches up against an Oakland defense that has allowed a 53% more fantasy production to tight ends than league-adjusted opponents (3rd-worst in the NFL). In our nation's capital, George Kittle looks to be going off at a mysteriously low 7% against the Washington Redskins. Kittle has been slowed by a hamstring injury, but it did not stop him from collecting an 8/103/0 stat line last week against the Rams and we should not expect anything less in this matchup, particularly given that Deebo Samuel has been announced out with a groin injury. Lastly, for low-owned GPP flyers, give some passing consideration to Dawson Knox and/or Mike Gesicki, both of whom will be playing in Buffalo. Knox was an early week favorite of mine until it was announced that Tyler Kroft would return to action this week, but I suspect Knox will get sufficient snaps in high-leverage situations to merit consideration for tournaments. Gesicki will be on nobody's DFS radar, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked to him often in their time on the field together; at $2.6K, he is a salary-saving option that can be slotted into gamestack rosters with Josh Allen and your favorite Bills receiver.

TEAM DEFENSES

TEAM DEFENSE DIGEST:

CASH: Do what you can to jam the Bills' $4.3K salary into your cash games this week. The Dolphins are undergoing yet another quarterback change and are yielding 16.6 fantasy points per game to opposing team defenses over the course of the year. Meanwhile, the Bills will be rested at home coming out of their bye week and looking to get after Miami's subpar offensive line that is 31st in the NFL in sacks allowed this season. If you cannot afford the salary for the Bills, the next best option is the Chicago Bears, also at home coming off their bye week, against the New Orleans Saints. To be fair, the Saints are surprisingly 4-0 since losing Drew Brees to injury earlier this year, but this game represents a much larger challenge against the Bears, who are looking to rebound off a disappointing loss to the Raiders in London in Week #5. Look for the Bears to bounce back nicely against the Alvin Kamara-less Saints at a reasonable price point.

GPP: As has been the case in recent weeks, spread out your distribution of GPP defenses across the spectrum to cover your bases at a highly variable position. At the top of my list this week are the 49ers on the road against a Redskins team that picked up their first victory against the Dolphins last week. In their first game without Jay Gruden as Head Coach, the 'Skins eeked past the Dolphins, 17-16, but they should be put in their place by the Niners, who have held their previous 2 opponents (Browns/Rams) to a grand total of 10 points. You might also consider the Jaguars against the Bengals, whose offensive line has been a turnstile for the entire 2019 season. Many DFS players will avoid the Jags because they just lost their best player (Jalen Ramsey) to a trade, but he had not suited up in a month for his previous team, so the team is used to playing without him at this point in time. And grabbing a small piece of the Chargers on the road makes a lot of sense--the Titans will start Ryan Tannehill for the first time since acquiring him in the off-season and you can bet that Joey Bosa, Desmond King, and company will be looking to get pressure on him to generate turnovers and possible defensive scores for the entire game.

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