Photo: USA Today Sports

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

• All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
• All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
• All stats reference the full 2020 season unless otherwise specified.
• All fantasy points rankings are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks unless otherwise specified.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

• Tweets of the Week
• Pressure and Dropback Rates

Note: starting next week, after we have four full weeks of data, #Trendspotting will begin to expand into numerous other categories. After four weeks, normalized defense vs. position and strength-of-schedule data holds significantly more weight, making it worth diving into at a level far beyond the value it would provide earlier in the season.

Tweets of the Week

Top-12 PPR TE and their TD dependency for scoring so far...

Jonnu 36.7%
Fant 25.9%
Higbee 41.5%
Waller 14.3%
Gesicki 28.9%
Kelce 29.3%
Graham 47.0%
Henry 0%
Hockenson 16.6%
Alie-Cox 17.6%
Ertz 17.7%
Goedert 18.3%

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 28, 2020

Hunter Henry's ranks among TEs ...

* 6th in routes
* 5th in targets
* 3rd in catches
* 2nd in yards

Just hasn't hit pay dirt yet.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 30, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

Given the general lack of depth at the tight end position in fantasy football, early-season flashes in the pan can appear to be enticing options, although the underlying metrics frequently tell a much different story.

• Touchdown-rate is one of the most well-researched aspects of fantasy analysis across all positions. Rarely does a player have a true talent level that should lead us to believe he is capable of sustaining remarkably-high touchdown-rates, and, as referenced in Rich Hribar’s tweet, there are numerous tight ends that are finding the end zone at a wildly unsustainable rate.
  
  
• Jonnu Smith, Tyler Higbee, and Jimmy Graham stand out as the top-12 PPR tight ends that are due to regress the most in the coming weeks.
  
  
• Jonnu Smith plays in an extremely run-heavy offense that typically limits his overall fantasy production. While he has capitalized on A.J. Brown’s absence and stepped-up as a notable contributor in Tennessee’s passing attack, with 36.7-percent of his total fantasy points coming via touchdowns, he is due for negative regression down the line, barring an unexpected and significant increase in target share or air yards.
  
  
• Tyler Higbee is undoubtedly a major part of the Los Angeles Rams’ passing game, but his raw fantasy totals through three weeks are misleading. Higbee’s target totals are limited in Los Angeles’ run-heavy offense-- tallying 2, 5, and 4 targets across his opening 3 games, respectively. Fortunately, Higbee found the end zone three times on five receptions in Week 2 against the Philadelphia Eagles, which rocketed him up the fantasy scoring leaderboards at tight end. Overall, playing in an offense littered with dangerous playmaking options at a variety of positions, Tyler Higbee should not be expected to remain amongst the position’s elite fantasy producers unless there is a substantial change in the team’s offensive philosophy and his role in the offense.
  
  
• Jimmy Graham’s first season as a member of the Chicago Bears has been erratic, to say the least. Graham opened the season with a 7-target, 3-reception, and 1-touchdown performance against the Detroit Lions, following by a 1-target game against the New York Giants in Week 2, and then most recently, a 10-target, 6-reception, and 2-touchdown game last weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. Nick Foles replacing Mitchell Trubisky under center for the Bears should provide a bolster to Chicago’s passing attack overall. However, this increase in expected passing efficiency for the offense is not enough for Jimmy Graham to continue to produce at the top-end level he has through three weeks, where over 47-percent of his total fantasy production has come via touchdowns.
  
  
• Hunter Henry is one of the primary beneficiaries of Justin Herbert starting at quarterback for the Los Angeles Chargers during Tyrod Taylor’s absence. In last week’s Beating the Odds article, which can be found here, I noted the stark contrast in passing preferences between Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor. In short, Herbert, as many young quarterbacks do, prefers short and safe passes, while Tyrod Taylor is far more aggressive in pushing the ball down the field. Hunter Henry, who makes a living dominating on short and intermediate routes, is going to thrive while Herbert is playing quarterback, and once he imminently finds the endzone, the sky is the limit for the fifth-year tight end out of Arkansas. Across the first three games of the 2020 season, Hunter Henry has been targeted an averaged of 7.7 times per game, making 5.3 receptions for 68.7 yards-per-game, and the underlying numbers to his raw totals are equally impressive. Expect Henry to remain a top-10 fantasy tight end throughout the season, especially while Justin Herbert is Los Angeles’ starting quarterback.
  
  
• Darren Waller has followed up a breakout 2019 campaign with an equally impressive first three weeks of the 2020 season, and he is likely here to stay as one of the NFL’s elite fantasy producers at the tight end position. Waller erupted in Week 2 on Monday Night Football against the New Orleans Saints with a 12-reception, 105-yard, and 1-touchdown performance. Unfortunately, in Week 3, Waller was contained by Bill Belichick’s defense, which has made a living over the years by successfully identifying and limiting the opposing offense’s number-one threat, forcing offenses to beat them using their secondary offensive weapons. Additionally, Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas’ dynamic rookie wide receiver, was sidelined due to a knee injury, which enabled the Patriots to devote even more attention to Darren Waller in the passing game. Despite his underwhelming showing in Week 3, Waller still ranks amongst the league’s best tight ends in fantasy football, and given his low dependency on touchdowns for fantasy scoring early in this season; he will likely continue to battle for the overall TE1 ranking in PPR formats throughout the year, especially when Henry Ruggs III returns to the field and commands the attention of opposing secondaries.Hunter Henry and Darren Waller appear to be due for positive regression in their respective offenses, leading us to believe they will remain top-end fantasy options for the foreseeable future.

Is David Montgomery now a bell cow? I think so.#BellCowOrBust 🔔 🐄 https://t.co/cc3d7XleHY

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 27, 2020

In seven career starts without Melvin Gordon, Austin Ekeler has seen 18, 24, 16, 23, 20, 20, and 23 touches.

Ekeler is averaging 21.3 fantasy points per game without Gordon and has finished as a top-20 scoring RB in 6-of-7 games.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) September 28, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

A pair of high-ceiling, potential RB1 candidates have emerged over the course of the first three weeks of the 2020 season-- one due to an injury elsewhere in his respective backfield that increases his projected playing time and volume, and one due, in part, to a quarterback change that bolsters his role his offense’s passing game.

• Last week, Tarik Cohen, Chicago’s third-down running back, went down with a season-ending knee injury last weekend against the Atlanta Falcons. Typically, Cohen would play between 33 and 50-percent of offensive snaps for the Chicago Bears, playing mostly on passing-downs, which are highly valuable for running backs in fantasy football. In his absence, David Montgomery’s role in Chicago’s offense should grow significantly. Montgomery already averages over 14 carries-per-game this season, but his role in Chicago’s passing game has been limited, seeing just 3 targets-per-game in 2020. Coming out of college, Montgomery was widely touted as a well-rounded prospect capable of contributing in all phases of the game. Now, the time has come for Montgomery to prove his worth in Matt Nagy’s offense as a featured player on all three downs. Expect Montgomery’s increased playing time in Tarik Cohen’s absence to foster a very fantasy-friendly situation for the second-year running back with the potential for him to approach bell-cow status and potentially reach high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 production levels.
  
  
• Austin Ekeler has been a hot topic of conversation across the fantasy football industry over recent months. This offseason, the case was made that Ekeler could be worthy of a first-round selection in season-long fantasy drafts now that Melvin Gordon has left the Los Angeles Chargers in free agency. Then, in Weeks 1 and 2, rookie Joshua Kelley carried the ball 35 times, playing almost 40-percent of the Chargers’ offensive snaps and many analysts sounded the alarms on Austin Ekeler’s fantasy value moving forward. Overall, the outlook for Austin Ekeler is bright this season, especially with rookie Justin Herbert starting at quarterback. Even with Joshua Kelley in the picture, Ekeler has tallied at least 20 touches in each of the team’s first 3 games. Last weekend, in Justin Herbert’s first prepared start as an NFL quarterback, Ekeler was the ultimate safety blanket for the inexperienced gunslinger. Ekeler caught all 11 of his targets on the day for 84 receiving yards, in addition to his 12 carries for 59 yards and a score on the ground. Justin Herbert’s penchant for dumping the ball off short to his known playmakers will keep Ekeler highly-involved in the Chargers’ passing attack, providing a massive floor of production in PPR scoring formats. Expect Austin Ekeler to regularly eclipse the 20-point mark this season, especially with Herbert at the helm, keeping the fourth-year running back in contention for DFS lineups on a weekly basis.

I have lots of questions about the last few days of positive COVID tests in the NFL.

This is going to be a little disjointed.

So...a thread.

1/n

— Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel) September 29, 2020

Commentary and Action Items

Overall, Dr. Jene Bramel, who is undeniably one of the best in the business at analyzing injury situations around the league, can delve into the specifics of the current COVID-related interruptions much better than I can. I highly suggest following him on Twitter here in addition to reading his weekly pieces here at FootballGuys. For this week, specifically, let’s take a look at how the interruptions after a series of positive tests across a handful of teams might impact fantasy lineups.

UPDATE: The matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers has officially been postponed by the NFL until a future date following additional positive tests within the Tennessee Titans organization. All players in this matchup will be on a bye week in Week 4 and they should be removed from all lineups this weekend.

• The Tennessee Titans, who currently appear to have the largest in-house outbreak of COVID of any NFL team, have closed all team facilities through Saturday at the time of this article being written. The plan, as currently stated by the NFL, is for their matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers to take place on Monday night instead of Sunday afternoon, as originally scheduled.
  
  
• Mike Vrabel and other Tennessee coaches have said there would be “no excuse” for a lackluster performance this weekend, even without practicing all week. However, there is no way to reasonably expect an NFL team to completely overhaul their week-long preparation process for a matchup against an undefeated team and play up to their standard levels. In season-long lineups, in any close decision between a player on the Tennessee Titans and a player on any other roster in the league, which will have its normal week of practice and game preparation, opt against starting a player on the Titans. For clarity regarding the proper way to approach this situation, here are two hypothetical lineup decisions and how I recommend dealing with them:
  
  
• Decision: Derrick Henry or Jeff Wilson at running back?
  • Answer: Derrick Henry
  • Why: Derrick Henry is an established number-one running back. While the overall efficiency of Tennessee’s offense may suffer, his volume is secure. On the other hand, although Jeff Wilson enters this weekend with a full week of normal practice and game preparation, his volume is substantially less secure, and his floor of production pales in comparison to a less-efficient Derrick Henry.
    
    
• Decision: Jonnu Smith or T.J. Hockenson at tight end?
  • Answer: T.J. Hockenson
  • Why: Jonnu Smith and T.J. Hockenson are comparable talents at the tight end position for fantasy purposes. All other things equal, these two players project for very similar results this weekend, according to FootballGuys consensus projections. However, given the downside associated with a lack of preparation this week for Jonnu Smith, T.J. Hockenson gets the edge here in a situation that has not been significantly disrupted due to the shutdown of team facilities.
    
    
• A.J. Terrell of the Atlanta Falcons was the first player in the NFL this regular season to land on the virus/reserve list. Terrell will be sidelined for an undetermined period of time, but what is known is that he will not be available for the Falcons this weekend. Atlanta already struggles mightily to defend the pass, allowing the second-most passing yards and passing touchdowns in the NFL through three games. Losing a starting cornerback is the last thing Dan Quinn needed entering a Week 4 clash with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, where the Falcons are looking to finally register their first win of the season. This matchup will not be on the main slate of games on any DFS slate this weekend, as it is the primetime Monday Night Football matchup of the week, but on any alternate slate featuring this game, confidently lock in Davante Adams to lineups in all formats if he is healthy. If Adams is unable to go, Allen Lazard will assume the number-one role on the outside for Green Bay once again, and he is also viable in all formats of DFS contests as well as season-long lineups.

Pressure and Dropback Rates

The offenses in the graph pictured above are the top-five offenses in the NFL in dropbacks-per-game through the first three weeks of the season.

• The Cincinnati Bengals lead the league in dropbacks-per-game, which makes sense after looking into the context of their first three games this season. Frequently playing from behind, the Bengals are chasing points airing out the football at a remarkably-high rate.
  
  
• The Dallas Cowboys, now under the guidance of an analytically-driven head coach, are making the most of a loaded receiving corps by airing the ball out at the second-highest rate in the league. Dallas’ porous defense also forces the Cowboys to light up the scoreboard in order to win games, which also helps to force Dak Prescott into 52.7 dropbacks-per-game.
  
  
• The Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive attack has been one of the most disappointing units in the NFL. The Eagles rank third in the league in dropbacks-per-game, and they only allow pressure on the quarterback on 16-percent of total dropbacks, a very impressive clip.
  
  
• The Atlanta Falcons rank fourth in the league in dropbacks-per-game. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has always had a preference for airing out the football, and now that he is equipped with a pair of top-end pass-catchers on the outside, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley (when they are both healthy), a pass-heavy offensive attack makes the most sense for a team that surely needs to light up the scoreboard to contend for victories this season.
  
  
• Unsurprisingly, the Kansas City Chiefs rely heavily upon their half-billion-dollar quarterback, Patrick Mahomes II, as they rank fifth in the league with 44.3 dropbacks-per-game.

Action Items

• Joe Burrow has proven to be an NFL-caliber quarterback over the course of his first three games, even if he has yet to come away with a victory in any of those games. Given his proven passing prowess and massive volume through the air, in addition to modest rushing production, he is a viable DFS option this weekend on DraftKings at $6,300, and he is at least worthy of a bench spot in all season-long formats. Additionally, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and A.J. Green all project to be relevant fantasy producers throughout the season. The buy-low window on this trio of wide receivers is closing quickly, but if possible, consider acquiring one of these players in season-long formats as a number three receiving option (or number two receiving option in Tyler Boyd’s case.)
  
  
• The secret is out: the Dallas Cowboys’ passing attack is going to produce gaudy numbers on a weekly basis this season with their new head coach-offensive coordinator pairing of Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore. This weekend, Dak Prescott is an elite DFS option on all sites, although he is expensive. At wide receiver, look for Amari Cooper to emerge as the clear-cut number-one producer for the Cowboys as time passes. His early-season production has been very impressive, but not awe-inspiring. It is only a matter of time before he erupts for a massive 100-yard and multi-touchdown game, making him one of the best GPP targets at the position moving forward.
  
  
• Philadelphia’s massive passing volume has not led to impressive raw totals through the air, in large part due to the struggles of quarterback Carson Wentz. Philadelphia’s receiving corps is depleted due to injuries to four of their top five pass-catchers. Moving forward, with this thin group on the outside, expect Zach Ertz to command double-digit targets, much like he did last season in the absence of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. Although Philadelphia’s game is not on the main slate this weekend, look to lock Ertz into lineups on the primetime slate as a high-floor tight end option.

The offenses pictured above are the bottom-five offenses in the NFL in dropbacks-per-game through the first three weeks of the season.

Commentary

• The Minnesota Vikings remain one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses this season under the guidance of head coach Mike Zimmer. Despite consistently playing from behind, the Vikings rank dead last in the NFL at just 30 dropbacks-per-game.
  
  
• Kevin Stefanski brought his run-heavy philosophy with him to Cleveland this season. The Cleveland Browns throw the ball the second-least in the NFL, dropping back to pass just 30.7 times per game.
  
  
• The Baltimore Ravens’ dynamic rushing attack continues to be their preferred method of moving the ball down the field in 2020. Through 3 games, the Ravens rank 30th in the league in dropbacks-per-game, attempting to pass the ball only 32 times per game.
  
  
• Sean McVay continues to make full use of his deep running back unit, as they throw the ball at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, passing the ball 33 times per game.
  
  
• New England has rebuilt its offense this season around Cam Newton at quarterback. Newton’s rushing prowess has led to a very run-heavy offensive attack from the Patriots as they rank 28th in the NFL at 33.3 dropbacks-per-game.

Action Items

• It is officially time to worry about the fantasy viability of Minnesota Vikings receivers in 2020. While Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson have both posted massive single-game tallies this season, Minnesota’s refusal to air the ball out will limit their production this season, and they will be inconsistent producers at best. While Jefferson warrants a spot on season-long rosters and he may be available on the waiver wire, he is unlikely to provide many 30-point performances this season, as he did in Week 3.
  
  
• Two weeks ago, I noted Kareem Hunt as an elite buy-low candidate in season-long formats. Since then, Hunt’s production has likely raised the cost of acquiring him via trade significantly. While he is no longer a buy-low candidate, his ceiling of production remains massive if Nick Chubb ends up missing any time due to injury throughout the season. If you have Hunt on your season-long rosters, hold onto him, and demand a steep asking price if your competitors approach you with any trade offers. In DFS, Hunt is a GPP-only option, as his weekly volume is extremely volatile for the time being. Elsewhere in this backfield, Nick Chubb’s volume is very secure right now, and he is a number-one running back in season-long formats. In DFS, however, Chubb is also a GPP-only candidate for lineups, as Hunt’s presence eats into his volume and lowers his floor of production significantly.
  
  
• In Cam Akers’ absence, Darrell Henderson has thrived as an incredibly efficient ball-carrier for the Los Angeles Rams. As noted on last week’s episode of The Power Grid, which can be found on YouTube every Friday, Henderson entered the league last year as a rookie out of Memphis who posted remarkable efficiency numbers throughout his collegiate career. Now that Henderson is getting his first taste of significant playing time in the NFL, he is performing as many expected when the Rams spent a second-round draft selection on him in the 2019 NFL Draft. Henderson’s floor of production is modest, as he continues to split snaps with Malcolm Brown. However, Henderson’s ceiling is massive, as his efficiency warrants an increase in playing time, and he gets another soft matchup this weekend against the New York Giants. Darrell Henderson is an elite GPP option this weekend, and he is viable for a starting spot as a number-two running back or flex spot in season-long lineups as well.

The offenses pictured above are the top-five offenses in pressure-rate allowed through the first three weeks of the NFL season.

Paired with this are the corresponding pressure rates for the defenses they match up against in Week 4.

Commentary

• The top-four offenses in terms of pressure-rate allowed make a lot of sense given their respective offensive line personnel. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, and Indianapolis Colts all field extremely impressive offensive lines, in combination with high-IQ quarterbacks that are very capable of altering protections at the line-of-scrimmage to protect against exotic blitzes as well.
  
  
• The Carolina Panthers rank fifth in the NFL in pressure-rate-allowed. While their offensive line does not sport a very impressive group of pass-protectors, Carolina’s new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, made a living last year as the offensive coordinator of the LSU Tigers by scheming an impressive offense centered around protecting his quarterback. This leads me to believe this is a product of the offensive scheme put in place in Carolina this year, and not a product of the team’s offensive line.

Action Items

• While the New Orleans Saints’ passing attack has not looked very impressive this season, despite the raw passing totals, a soft matchup against the Detroit Lions’ weak pass-rush bodes extremely well for Drew Brees. This weekend, Drew Brees is a strong cash-game option on the DraftKings main slate of games at the modest price of $5,800. Additionally, Alvin Kamara’s massive receiving volume in the Saints’ offense that has a long track record of favoring short and high-percentage pass plays makes him an elite high-end option in all formats at $8,000.