Cracking DraftKings Week 15

Photo: Bob DeChiara, USA Today Sports

Favorite Games

• Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars - Over/Under 47.5
• Detroit Lions at New York Jets - Over/Under 44.5
• Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Over/Under 43.5
• Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - Over/Under 43.5
• New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders - Over/Under 44.5

Favorite Additional Spots

• Eagles on the road against the Bears - Implied Team Total 28.75
• Chiefs on the road against the Texans - Implied Team Total 31.75
• Chargers at home vs. the Titans - Implied Team Total 24.75
• Broncos at home vs. the Cardinals - Implied Team Total 19.75

CASH GAMES

Quarterbacks

The Chiefs have the highest Implied Team Total (31.75) of the week and are 14-point favorites against a Texans defense that ranks 29th in EPA/Play Allowed, 24th in Dropback EPA Allowed, and 25th in Success Rate. Patrick Mahomes II is the MVP in my book. He ranks first in both passing yards per game (320) and pass touchdowns per game (2.5) and leads a Chiefs offense that ranks first in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), third in Success Rate, first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE), and first in Early Down Pass Frequency (EDPF).

Trevor Lawrence is heating up and putting his special talent on film more and more. He's thrown for 300+ passing yards and 3 pass touchdowns in two of his past three games. The matchup is tough here against a solid Cowboys defense that should be able to apply pressure on Lawrence but his affordable $6,000 salary is enticing in cash, especially since the Jaguars get to play at home.

Tampa Bay's defense has strong numbers overall as they rank seventh in EPA/Play Allowed, fifth in Dropback EPA Allowed, and third in Success Rate. Yet the Buccaneers offense has simply been horrendous of late, which keeps putting their own defense in harm's way. Expect more of the same this week against Joe Burrow, who will take full advantage. Burrow ranks fifth in passing yards per game (283.5) and second in pass touchdowns per game (2.1) and leads a Bengals offense that ranks fourth in EPA/Play, sixth in Success Rate, second in PROE, and third in EDPF.

Justin Fields has a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks first in EPA/Play Allowed, first in Dropback EPA Allowed, and ninth in Success Rate. But the Bears offense, despite very limited weapons, ranks tenth in EPA/Play simply because of Fields' athleticism and playmaking ability. Since Week 6 (seven-game sample), Fields is averaging 12.3 rushing attempts, 101.6 rushing yards, and 1 rush touchdown per game.

Running Backs

The Cowboys offense has been very run-heavy this season. They only rank 28th in PROE and 26th in EDPF. They're four-point favorites against a Jaguars defense that ranks 26th in EPA/Play Allowed, 21st in Rush EPA Allowed, and 25th in Success Rate. Both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott offer high floors and ceilings this week as both average over 15 opportunities per game.