Cracking FanDuel Week 13

Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn, USA Today Sports

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE:

Check back around 11:00 AM EST for any changes to the primary cash game lineup

Update #1 10:27 AM EST

A couple of injury related items that will have an impact to the primary cash lineup:

• While he has not been officially ruled out. It is becoming less and less likely that Joe Mixon will play almost to the point of impossible as he has not been cleared from the concussion protocol. Samaje Perine is interesting as we had concerns about him last week, but that was because he was facing one of the league's best run-stopping units in Tennessee. This week, he gets to face a Kansas City team that are a league average matchup in a game hat is projected to shootout. Perine is one of the top plays on this slate at just $7,100. Ensure you're playing Samaje Perine in the flex on the near zero chance Mixon is active. This will allow you to have the most options to swap out

• Based on the sentiment from Adam Schefter's tweet about Deebo Samuel, it seems as if he has made significant progress since Friday. This hurts Brandon Aiyuk considerably and if you're playing the primary cash lineup you should look to swap.

One name I keep going back to is Nico Collins. With Brandin Cooks out, who else do the Texans have to throw to besides Collins? Collins is already seeing an increase in his role as he had 8.7 targets over his last three games, and that almost assuredly will increase this week with the loss of Cooks. At $5,800, this also allows an upgrade at the tight end position away from the low-end players such as Tyler Conklin and up to Pat Freiermuth.

One additional thing to mention, I'm swapping David Montgomery out for Perine instead of Aaron Jones. While I mentioned yesterday that Montgomery was an anchor of the lineup, I believe Jones has just a slight edge when it comes to touchdown potential. Both are in great spots this week, but with the Packers 4.5 point favorites and the injury to Justin Fields, going with Jones just feels slightly safer.

• QB Patrick Mahomes II, KC, $9,000
• RB Samaje Perine, CIN, $7,100
• RB Aaron Jones, GB, $7,400
• WR, Nico Collins, HOU, $5,800
• WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, $6,600
• WR Davante Adams, LV, $8,600
• TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT, $5,900
• Flex RB Dameon Pierce, HOU, $6,500
• TD Las Vegas Raiders, $3,100

SITUATIONS THAT STAND OUT TO THIS WEEK ON THE MAIN SLATE.

• Cleveland (vs HOU) – 27.25 points
• Kansas City (at CIN) – 27 points
• Jacksonville (at DET) – 26 points
• Las Vegas (at LAC) – 25.5 points

Week 12 Recap

Week 12 is going to be a tough one as it’s the first time all season that there have been two not great weeks in a row as in Week 11 was a split week for me finishing right on the cut line in some and below in others. Week 12 was a complete wipeout and it was the first time on the season that the Sunday Morning Update was a net negative as the lineup that was produced on Saturday would have easily won, but the swap off of Garrett Wilson to prevent having two Jets players ended up being costly.

This has still been a very good year, so let’s finish strong with a few winning weeks in a row to end the season as the best year of this article.

Total points scored- 102.4

• QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF, $6,800- 13.3
• RB Rachaad White, TB, $6,400- 15.4
• RB Jeff Wilson, MIA, $7,700- 11.7
• WR, Keenan Allen, LAC, $7,300- 13.4
• WR Chris Godwin, TB, $7,000- 23.0
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC, $6,600- 5.3
• TE Travis Kelce, KC, $8,200- 13.7
• Flex RB Michael Carter II, NYJ, $6,200- 4.6
• TD Tennessee Titans, $3,700- 2.0

What went right:

• There’s really nothing that went all that well. Chris Godwin and Rachaad White against the Browns reached value, but there wasn’t anyone who really dominated.

What went wrong:

• Obviously swapping off of Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, and Latavius Murray for Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Michael Carter II was critical. This was the worst Sunday Morning Update in several seasons as it ended up costing 16 FanDuel points.

Injuries Create Opportunity:

There’s very little certainty this week in terms of injuries, as a lot of questionable tags, but not many players have been ruled out:

• Mike White will start once again for the Jets. This is not injury related, but this is a team that seems invigorated with White started as they had a fantastic performance last week with White throwing for over 300 yards in a win against the Bears
• Antonio Gibson was downgraded on Thursdays practice, but did get a limited participation in on Friday. If he were to miss this week, Brian Robinson Jr would vault up to one of the top plays for Week 13.
• The Broncos could be without their top three wide receivers as Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are questionable while KJ Hamler has been ruled out this week. If all receivers are out, Kendall Hinton could become interesting simply by default, but the Ravens defense would likely also see an upgrade.
• David Njoku is out this week with a knee injury. Harrison Bryant is a decent option as a low-end punt play at the tight end position in GPP’s.
• Myles Gaskin will miss this week once again. Jeff Wilson will see the start for the Dolphins, but did struggle last week in a great matchup and this week is facing his former team as the 49ers boast one of the best defenses in the NFL.
• Joe Mixon still has not been cleared from the concussion protocol. If he is out, this will help Samaje Perine, but could help Joe Burrow and this passing offense more than the running backs. We saw that Perine did not have significant volume last week, which was the concern heading into the week. With Ja'Marr Chase expected to return, this could be a big passing week for the Bengals.
• Josh Jacobs is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. This is the same hamstring injury he had prior to last week and ended up having more than 300 yards, so expect him to play, but if he was out Zamir White and Davante Adams would likely see massive upgrades.