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Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
I just wanted to write a quick thank you to everyone who reads this article. As most of you know I had a bit of an emergency medical situation this week, and the kindness from all of you has been extremely overwhelming alleviating some of the stress of getting these articles out in a condensed or not as timely fashion. Thanksgiving week is always a difficult week trying to balance time with family along with doing double the work covering the very popular Thanksgiving slates. Everything should be hopefully back to normal next week with a Saturday morning release time.
I appreciate every single one of you reading this.
Key Injuries for Week 12
This season is unique in that we are dealing with so many backups, injuries, and rookie quarterbacks that it is becoming a bit unprecedented.
- The Chiefs are going to be extremely limited at wide receiver this week. Mecole Hardman has been placed on IR, Kadarius Toney has been ruled out, Jerick McKinnon, and Justyn Ross are also out. This leaves Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, and Travis Kelce as the only reliable receivers for this offense. Of those, Watson, Rice, and Kelce are the most intriguing as Skyy Moore just has not been able to produce even while seeing significant snap counts.
- The Browns are without Denzel Ward which is a critical injury to their secondary this week. Russell Wilson and the passing game in Denver should see an upgrade this week.
- Arizona is dealing with some injuries at receiver as Michael Wilson has been already ruled out and Marquise Brown may miss this game as well. If Brown is active, he should be a strong play, but if he misses, Greg Dortch and Rondale Moore both become tremendous values.
- Tee Higgins will miss his third straight game. However, with Jake Browning starting for Cincinnati, it does limit the upside of this offense for players such as Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd.
- Rachaad White was a late add on Saturday to the injury report. Normally if you see a late add of questionable on Saturday afternoon, it is likely that the player will miss that week. If White misses, it’s likely that Chase Edmonds sees the majority of the work, but we could see some Ke’Shawn Vaughn as well
Slate Overview- Week 12 Thoughts
Week 12 is going to be an interesting slate, because so much of the roster percentage is going to be tied to just a few players. We currently are trending towards 10 players having 18% rostered or higher when lineups lock this week and as many as five running backs over 23%. What makes this unique is that these are not your value players who may be elevated into a position where they are such a great price that you have to take them. Instead, they’re just guys who are going to get predictable touches such as Javonte Williams, James Conner, potentially Rachaad White, an expensive Tank Dell, and Jonathan Taylor.
What this ultimately does, is it opens the door for the mid-tier players who may be in less than ideal matchups such as Davante Adams, players who are coming off of a bad week such as Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, or just more volatile players such as Calvin Ridley. Some weeks there are players who you should just take the 30% rostered guy instead of being different just to be different, however this is a week where none of those guys are even probable to be in the optimal lineup, they’re just getting the most hype across the industry and having projections that are 1-2 points higher than another position.
It’s crazy that this one almost falls in the under-the-radar stack, but Josh Allen is currently trending to be less than 5% rostered, while Diggs is going to be about 10% rostered. The way to beat the Eagles is through the air, as they boast one of the league’s best-run defenses as they are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, while allowing the fourth-most to opposing quarterbacks. It is not a cheap stack as it will take up $16,900, but it is cheaper than the Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown stack that is going to be incredibly popular this week. Diggs is coming off of back-to-back poor performances, although last week the game was never truly competitive as the Bills just took what the Jets gave to them not forcing throws to Sauce Gardner.
Jonathan Taylor’s roster percentage is surprising. Yes, he’s dominating the touches in the backfield as he was on the field for 85% of the snaps in their last game, but he has been somewhat disappointing averaging just 3.8 yards per carry since his return. What’s interesting is that this might be the best run defense he has faced all season, as the Buccaneers are a funnel defense that have been shredded by opposing quarterbacks. This opens up for a perfect pivot opportunity for Gardner Minshew who has struggled over the last three games, but he’s faced arguably some of the best pass defenses in the NFL during that time.
This week, Minshew will get to take on a Tampa defense that has allowed 300-yards passing to opposing quarterbacks in three of their last four games. For Pittman, the volume has been there as he has eight or more receptions in four of his last five games all while facing some of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
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