Know Your Opposition
If you want to finish at the top of the standings in a mid-to-large field GPP, your roster has to stand out from the crowd. Studying a list of projected roster percentages is a helpful first step, but it lacks the context of how the most popular players fit together under the salary cap.
To gain some insight into how the majority of entrants will allocate their cap space, so you can spend yours differently, let’s think about how the public is most likely to attack roster construction at each position.
Key Injuries for Week 18
- Tee Higgins will miss this week with a hamstring injury. This should increase Ja'Marr Chase's value, although, with other top wide receivers in must-win games, Chase is likely a GPP-only option although his price at $7,800 is very affordable reduced by some of his recent struggles.
- Zach Wilson will miss this week. Trevor Siemian will once again get the start which should help Breece Hall and his reception upside this week.
- Nick Mullens will start for Minnesota. This is a big boost to the offense that struggled with Jaren Hall as their starter last week.
- Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence remain questionable. In a game that they need to win to win the AFC South, it seems likely they're going to do everything they can to play this week. Kirk is minimum priced at just $3,000 and if he plays he would be a great option this week.
- Kansas City's running back room could be interesting this week as Isiah Pacheco is questionable to play. If he plays, there's not much to like, as he'll likely be limited in his number of touches. However, if the Chiefs choose to sit him this week, La'Mical Perine would become cash-game viable at just $5,000.
Slate Overview- Week 18 Thoughts- Worst Week of the Year
Welcome to the worst week of the season. Where nothing is certain including playing time for just about any player. This is a week that you should tread lightly. There are going to be things that no matter how much research you do, teams just act differently. Players who are expected to play may play a quarter tweak something that they normally would play through, and just shut it down. Players who are expected to be the backups, may not actually be the backups as the team may want to see how certain players perform. Besides a couple of teams, this is essentially a glorified pre-season for most teams. Last season, we saw Davis Webb and Davis Mills both finish inside the top 5 of DraftKings points. It’s a random week, and while we can break this down the best that we can, if there is a narrative that you like, go ahead and play that player or team, as just about anything is on the table in Week 18.
We have several teams resting their starters, which does open up theoretical opportunities for cheap players to step up into starter roles. Players such as Jordan Mason, Christian Kirk, and Pierre Strong could all become popular this week which ultimately will cause the high-end players such as Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb to become more popular than they typically would be given the amount of value that is on this slate.
Teams Resting their Starters:
- Cleveland Browns
- San Francisco 49ers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Kansas City Chiefs
How to approach this slate is that you need to determine how to attack the week. The popular build is going to be expensive at quarterback, and dirt cheap at running back with players such as Mason, and Strong, some people will take chances on players such as Ronnie Rivers, Royce Freeman, or even La’Mical Perine if Isiah Pacheco is ruled out. Deviating from that strategy of focusing on the teams that are resting their starters can often pay off in Week 18, as instead focusing on the teams that have been out of the playoff race and are still playing hard historically has paid off this week.
Fading Dallas?
Completely fading Dallas is likely something that I’m personally going to be doing. Dallas is averaging just 220 passing yards per game on the road compared to 307 at home. In their first meeting, while Dak Prescott had a big game throwing for 339 yards and 4 touchdowns, CeeDee Lamb was largely held in check with just 4 receptions for 53 yards and a touchdown. Lamb has just 2 touchdowns on the road compared to 8 at home, while he is averaging just 89 yards per game on the road compared to 119 at home. This is a game where you should likely make a decision to either stack the entire game running it back with someone like Terry McLaurin, only play Tony Pollard who is going overlooked, or completely fade it.
The reason here is that both Prescott and Lamb are going to be two of the highest-rostered players at their respective positions, and with that, the cheap running backs that we mentioned are going to create a significant amount of overlap for the Dallas stacks. Trust us when we say that if you’re thinking about going in that direction, everyone is this week.
Stacks
Top Stacks
Nick Mullens, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Defense (optional)
Nick Mullens is back as the starting quarterback for Minnesota, which is a great thing for fantasy players. Mullens is a turnover machine throwing six interceptions over his two starts this season, but he’s also produced big yardage totals averaging 357 passing yards in his two starts. This includes a 411-yard performance against Detroit just two weeks ago in a game in which he threw four interceptions. In their one game together, Justin Jefferson was dominant as he had 6 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown in that game against the Lions. Detroit is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and while they may get C.J. Gardner Johnson back this week which should help, Detroit could be a team that may be cautious with some of their injured players as the only difference in this game will be a 2 or 3 seed for the playoffs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been outspoken about not making the Pro Bowl this season. St. Brown torched the Vikings just two weeks ago with a 12 reception 106-yard performance with a touchdown. It seems highly likely that he’s going to be motivated to show that he was snubbed and the team is trying to get him his 10th touchdown on the season. Both St. Brown and Jefferson are going somewhat overlooked compared to players such as CeeDee Lamb or A.J. Brown but pairing the two together with some of the cheaper running backs could be a way to go this week.
Jake Browning, Ja’Marr Chase, Cedric Tillman
Jake Browning and the Bengals have been eliminated from the playoffs, but that does not mean that they are not going to finish the season strong. For Browning, this is his unique opportunity to continue to show teams that he is someone who can get a full-time backup job next year. Browning has been more than competent going 3-3 as a starter topping 300 yards in three of his six starts. He’s done a good job in spreading the ball around compared to Joe Burrow which has brought down Ja’Marr Chase’s numbers this season, but for Chase, he should be in a tremendous opportunity this week as the Browns are going to be resting starters. Chase is slated to come in around 10% rostered we’ve seen a big performance from Chase with Browning against Jacksonville as he had 11 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown. With Denzel Ward almost assuredly not playing this week, the Browns likely are not going to have anyone to cover the receiver.
Cedric Tillman is interesting in Week 18. As of now, he’s slated to be on just 1% of rosters but could have upside at just $3,900 this week. Last week, we saw Tillman play 95% of snaps and while the results were not there, that was largely due to facing a significant amount of coverage from Sauce Gardner due to the absence of Amari Cooper. This week, the matchup is significantly easier for Tillman, and with no Amari Cooper once again this week, and David Njoku also likely out, Tillman could have his rookie breakout moment.
Under the Radar Stacks:
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