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For many, the window to realize value on veteran performers closes before a long offseason. What players are forecasted for value declines? Footballguys has you covered on movement within dynasty rankings heading into Week 14.
Question: Who is one veteran you are doing all you can to recoup value before an offseason value decline?
Adam Thielen, Carolina
Jay Stein: Adam Thielen is someone I'd like to move before the offseason. This case is primarily an age argument, as Thielen is now 33.3 years old, which is ancient for an NFL wide receiver. If you were one of the lucky ones to store Thielen at the bottom of your roster at no cost, you must feel fantastic as you have collected your 15 fantasy points per game this season. Now, if you have missed the playoffs, and maybe even if you've made them, it's time to move on to someone younger or a future draft pick. Capture the spike in his price that we've seen this season because I don't think he'll ever trade at these levels again. With one of the worst receiving groups in the NFL, the Panthers will most likely get their young quarterback, Bryce Young, some more pass-catching help next year, which probably makes this run that Thielen is having one of the last ones of his career.
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers
Christian Williams: It's a difficult decision, but Austin Ekeler fits into the category of "visibly declining and likely to lose value." It isn't easy, especially on contending teams, because Ekeler's playoff schedule is fantastic. He gets the Broncos, Raiders, and Bills, who are all bottom-half teams against running backs (with the Broncos being the worst against them). That said, unless I'm a true contender and feel like a championship is on the horizon, I am moving off of him everywhere I can. I don't know what his future entails, but he's noticeably slower over the last few weeks, and once that happens, it's almost guaranteed to be over.
George Kittle, San Francisco
Corey Spala: Travis Kelce will jump to mind; this is a consensus opinion on veterans to trade away while you can. It has been recently questioned on Twitter if we are witnessing the beginning of the end. That said, I am looking to recoup the value of George Kittle. He will turn 31 at the beginning of the 2024 season, while Kelce will turn 35. There is a four-year age difference, and there is also an injury history difference.
Here are recent trades sending away Kittle:
- Kyle Pitts
- Puka Nacua
- Kyle Pitts, 2024-second
- Mark Andrews
- David Montgomery
- Jalin Hyatt
- Jaylen Warren, Demario Douglas
There were numerous packages; these were recent trades only sending away Kittle. We can see a slight variation in value here. I would not look to send away an immediate production asset like Kittle for Hyatt, a third-round rookie who looks to be boom or bust in production. You can see the potential to trade away Kittle to the league mate who has been disappointed in Pitts, and getting an additional second is a cherry on top.
The route you take in your trade should consider the scope of your team; if you are competing, you probably do not want to trade him away. There is a possibility if you are fortunate enough to have depth at the position and roster a tight end like Trey McBride waiting for the breakout. If you are retooling for next year, you want to target early draft picks and/or young-and-proven assets.
Gus Edwards, Baltimore
Jeff Bell: The window may be closed already. Through week 11, Edwards was sitting at an overall half-point PPR RB6. But a quiet Week 12 that saw Keaton Mitchell see nearly twice as many snaps as any other back, followed by a bye, has him down to RB18. Edwards has seen a roller coaster of value in his age 28 season. He fell as low as RB79 on Keeptradecut.com before peaking at RB38 in late November. In just two weeks from that peak, he has fallen back to RB45. It is not hard to see where this heads. Baltimore reworked his contract coming into the season into a one-year deal. J.K. Dobbins' future is questionable, which clears the way for Keaton Mitchell. However, if Dobbins returns and rehabs or the team invests in another back in the draft, the favorable environment in which Edwards excelled could be gone. This season was a gift of surprise value; you win in Dynasty by moving on in those windows.
Dak Prescott, Dallas
Jay Stein: Coming into this season, Prescott faced a smorgasbord of issues. At 30 years old, Prescott is getting older, and analysts were wondering if he still had 'it.' Head Coach Mike McCarthy would resume calling plays this season, which many people were skeptical of how that would turn out. However, Prescott has been dominant this season and has a solid case to be the league MVP. According to NextGenStats, Prescott's completion percentage above expectation is 5.2 in 2023, 1st in the NFL. According to The Edge (33rd team), Prescott is 2nd in expected points added per play this season. Also, quite remarkably, Prescott is leading the league in PFF's big-time throw percentage at 6.6% and second in the league in not making turnover-worthy plays at 1.4%. Prescott is winning you fantasy matchups this season, and although age will continue to be a watch item, he deserves to move up everyone's dynasty rankings.
Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City
Christian Williams: While many will suggest that Patrick Mahomes II is the dynasty QB1 because of insulated value and long-term stability, the production has yet to come close to Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen this season. Situation matters, and Mahomes' situation is sure to improve in 2024. Still, I project Allen and Hurts to outscore him for the length of their contracts, and without a range of outcomes that includes QB1 overall, it's much easier to rank him behind the pair of talented quarterbacks.
Jordan Love, Green Bay
Jeff Bell: Coming out of Week 9, the future looked bleak for Jordan Love. At 3-5, the Packers looked headed for their worst season since 2018. From Weeks 5 through 9, Love was QB26 on a per-game basis. Since then, everything has flipped. Over the last four weeks, he has been QB5, and the Packers are on a 3-1 run to put themselves back in the playoff hunt. The Packers have the youngest offense in the NFL and are flush with talent that can mature with Love. His stock is rising.
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